Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

[BurntFishTrousers]

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just looked at the wind gusts projected on the GFS and as it stands tonight, it looks equally as bad as Ciara...which is a surprise as I expected Denis to amount to not much.

[Mustang]

 

[tinybill]

16 minutes ago, Mustang said:

 

this looks it could bigger then the last  one

[The PIT]

Slight downgrade this morning on the winds local forecasts still having none of it bar the rain.

[knocker]

Sixty mbs in 30 hours! Whichever way you hack it very impressive cyclogenisis

Which also initiates warm and moist advection with a long fetch resulting in likely some heavy rain. A mini  atmospheric river

Edited February 14, 2020 by knocker

[CharmlessMan]

For my area (east Wiltshire) the forecast is heavy rain from 7pm today right through until Sunday afternoon/evening, bar two hours of drizzle on Saturday morning.  48 hours of continuous rain?  Winds are at least 10% down on the forecast for Ciara though (which makes the forecast for this weekend similar to what we got last weekend in terms of actual wind speeds).

I'm not sure I can ever remember such a long period of heavy rain on the forecast!  Shame it's not snow eh?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

2 minutes ago, CharmlessMan said:

For my area (east Wiltshire) the forecast is heavy rain from 7pm today right through until Sunday afternoon/evening, bar two hours of drizzle on Saturday morning.  48 hours of continuous rain?  Winds are at least 10% down on the forecast for Ciara though (which makes the forecast for this weekend similar to what we got last weekend in terms of actual wind speeds).

I'm not sure I can ever remember such a long period of heavy rain on the forecast!  Shame it's not snow eh?

Same. Rain forecast from 3pm today, until midnight on Sunday. Huge rainfall totals.

[Frosty hollows]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just looked at the wind gusts projected on the GFS and as it stands tonight, it looks equally as bad as Ciara...which is a surprise as I expected Denis to amount to not much.

Same here, but with added wet!

I wouldn't underestimate him. Ciara gave gusts of 60+mph here, but anything mid 50s + is significant, especially over a 15 hr period on saturated ground. 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Meanwhile, before Dennis:

 

[Cold Winter]

No doubt it’s a monster storm...... out in the Atlantic. Standing by what I said on page 1 - nothing too out of the ordinary for us in winter. 

[BurntFishTrousers]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter said:

No doubt it’s a monster storm...... out in the Atlantic. Standing by what I said on page 1 - nothing too out of the ordinary for us in winter. 

Are you referring to the post above, which is not Dennis and is giving red alerts to Iceland, or specifically Dennis? 

[Cold Winter]

1 minute ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Are you referring to the post above, which is not Dennis and is giving red alerts to Iceland, or specifically Dennis? 

Dennis - although it’s all originating from the same area of low pressure throwing off other lows.

[Cold Winter]

The winds aren’t going to be the main story - 60mph max inland and 70-75mph on the coast is standard winter storm territory. The rain may well prove more significant in flood prone areas simply because of the amount of rain we’ve had all autumn and winter.

[kold weather]

For sure the rain is going to be the biggest issue I feel, I drove through the amber zone for Sunday in the South downs early yesterday and the rain from overnight Wednesday caused a lot of flooding on the roads. I've no doubt that whilst today isn't going to be that wet, the ground is now pretty much maxed out on what it can take and it probably won't take a huge fall of rain to cause pretty widespread flooding issues down here.

Worth noting there is an outside shot at a record low pressure in the north Atlantic outside of the tropics from this storm. also not common to have a sub 930mbs secondary low!!

Edited February 14, 2020 by kold weather

[mountain shadow]

35 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

No doubt it’s a monster storm...... out in the Atlantic. Standing by what I said on page 1 - nothing too out of the ordinary for us in winter. 

Some of the projected rain totals in some areas would suggest you will be wrong.

[Cold Winter]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Some of the projected rain totals in some areas would suggest you will be wrong.

Like this from latest GFS up to Sunday evening?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

MetO just upgraded to Amber for Sat' & Sunday

 

[Cold Winter]

3 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

MetO just upgraded to Amber for Sat' & Sunday

 

It’s been amber since yesterday, they haven’t updated again so far today

Edited February 14, 2020 by Cold Winter

[Dreckly]

©EUMETSAT 2020

[Frostbite1980]

9 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

It’s been amber since yesterday, they haven’t updated again so far today

They have removed the amber zone from the Southeast.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

7 minutes ago, Dreckly said:

©EUMETSAT 2020

It looks like we've moved to Jupiter !!

[weirpig]

Very unique storm is storm dennis.  Although it looks like the wind speeds may not be so strong as the last one.  What it is however is over a longer duration   winds of 50mph + may not sound to extreme  on the face of it   but when you have those gusts for getting on for 24 hours  added with copious amounts of rain.  i sense there may be some issues that arise over the coming days 

[Cold Winter]

39 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

They have removed the amber zone from the Southeast.

There’s still an Amber warning for rain in the southeast on Sunday. 
 

I think Wales looks to be worst affected - 100-120mm possible over the hills and Wales will also get the strongest winds, gusting 70-80mph along the coast and over the hills.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

42 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

They have removed the amber zone from the Southeast.

Still there