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Storm Dennis Atlantic Storm 4

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Met Office

@metoffice

Yellow Warning for Wind has been issued #StormDennis has been named and will bring very strong winds and potential for disruption to many parts of England and Wales on Saturday. More info here https://bit.ly/31IMTcc Stay #WeatherAware

 

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Edited by pip22

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Really don’t get the Met’s decisions sometimes. Yes there’s higher confidence for this spell of windy weather at the weekend but it doesn’t look like anything exceptional, yet we’ve been warned 4 days in advance. 
 

Compare that with other storms that are named at the last minute, or not named at all... some of them have packed a real punch. 
 

I know they do a difficult job and it’s hard to get the balance right but I am surprised by some of their decisions.

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28 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Really don’t get the Met’s decisions sometimes. Yes there’s higher confidence for this spell of windy weather at the weekend but it doesn’t look like anything exceptional, yet we’ve been warned 4 days in advance. 
 

Compare that with other storms that are named at the last minute, or not named at all... some of them have packed a real punch. 
 

I know they do a difficult job and it’s hard to get the balance right but I am surprised by some of their decisions.

I guess the fact ground is so saturated now and weaker structures so close after the last storm they'll be taking no risks

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1 hour ago, Cold Winter said:

Really don’t get the Met’s decisions sometimes. Yes there’s higher confidence for this spell of windy weather at the weekend but it doesn’t look like anything exceptional, yet we’ve been warned 4 days in advance. 
 

Compare that with other storms that are named at the last minute, or not named at all... some of them have packed a real punch. 
 

I know they do a difficult job and it’s hard to get the balance right but I am surprised by some of their decisions.

I have no idea what is behind Exeter's thinking, way above my pay grade, but from where I'm sitting it looks very much down to the different evolution and structure of Dennis as against Ciara

The latter formed and tracked quickly across the Atlantic in about 36 hours, deepening rapidly as it went which made forecasting of the impacts extremely tricky far in advance.

Dennis on the other hand, although also deepening quickly, is slower to move and also curves more north east and merges with the upper trough in situ, courtesy of strong ridging from the subtropical high and the re curving jet which helps to pin down the outcome a tad easier.and earlier(from where I'm sitting of course). Still liable to adjustment

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4 hours ago, pip22 said:

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:oldrofl:

If I see him flying past my window at the weekend then it will be a very special storm indeed 

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

I have no idea what is behind Exeter's thinking, way above my pay grade, but from where I'm sitting it looks very much down to the different evolution and structure of Dennis as against Ciara

The latter formed and tracked quickly across the Atlantic in about 36 hours, deepening rapidly as it went which made forecasting of the impacts extremely tricky far in advance.

Dennis on the other hand, although also deepening quickly, is slower to move and also curves more north east and merges with the upper trough in situ, courtesy of strong ridging from the subtropical high and the re curving jet which helps to pin down the outcome a tad easier.and earlier(from where I'm sitting of course). Still liable to adjustment

You're right, that's exactly what the MO is saying as to why the warning is out so 'early'.

What makes me smile are the conspiracy theories as to why or not the MO issue a warning and then what sort of warning it is. They don't always get it right and their reasoning isn't always completely transparent but I also don't believe that they've got a secret agenda to spite the public!

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I really don’t get this obsession with questioning the MetO.

Just for the record, the yellow warning for Ciara was issued last week on Tuesday (Feb 4) and she was named at the same time.

So it’s EXACTLY the same this week and the warning makes clear that, at this time, they think the impacts and wind speeds will be a tad lower (subject to change obviously).

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Of course further complications could arise if things panned as per this evening's gfs as the energy makes some inroads to the east and the low, initially stalls, and then tracks east also as it fills slowly

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Well, it looks like another windy weekend is on our hands. Looking at the GFS charts, the storm moves in and comes to a standstill on Saturday/Sunday 😯

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According to this evening's ecm Dennis enters the fray at t72 around the SW quadrant of the main Atlantic trough and over the next 24 hours tracks ENE and undergoes very rapid cyclogenisis to be 926mb south of Iceland by midday Saturday with the associated frontal system bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the UK and Ireland

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It's half term, there will be people on the move, making journeys that are outside of the usual weekdays ones. The flood risk seems key after recent events, the snowmelt , soggy ground, existing high river levels. And there are several bands of heavy rain/lows before Dennis this week. 

Met Office say “The impacts from #StormDennis… are not expected to be as extreme as #StormCiara but will bring widespread strong winds and heavy rain to parts of the UK on Saturday” 

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This morning Dennis is still forecast to become an exceptionally deep Atlantic cyclone which fortunately curves and tracks north to be south of Iceland 929mb by midday Saturday. Even so it will bring gale force winds over the UK over the weekend and the associated frontal systems heavy rain which, as Jo points out above, is the last thing that is needed in many areas at the moment. And an eye has to kept on it's further movements once it starts to fill as it could bring some very strong winds to Scotland as it drifts east

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There is still a lot of uncertainty vis the movements of the low as it starts to fill. and of course specific rainfall intensities but for what it's worth the ecm this morning

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With the ground already very saturated, I assume it won’t take much for the usual areas to get flooded again and also trees down in any strong gusts. 
 

Not good for areas in Calderdale and also further north such as Carlisle and the Peak District. 

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Hello,

What's the expert opinion on likelihood of cancellation for ferries leaving Newcastle for Amsterdam on Saturday? Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but you guys obviously know your stuff.

Thanks!

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If it produces winds in excess of 100mph, it should be renamed Storm Dennis Lillee

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17 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

If it produces winds in excess of 100mph, it should be renamed Storm Dennis Lillee

And if it arrived on Friday it would no doubt have some "St Valentines Day" connotation 🙂 

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It's more about the rain for me rather than wind.

A lot of places around here(west Yorks) are just recovering from Ciara.

Saturated ground everywhere. Not good.

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Latest Met Office forecast suggesting 24 hours of 50 - 60mph here. Lucky that I haven't put up the new fence yet.

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6 hours ago, rwlr said:

Hello,

What's the expert opinion on likelihood of cancellation for ferries leaving Newcastle for Amsterdam on Saturday? Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but you guys obviously know your stuff.

Thanks!

Hi, R, welcome. It takes quite a lot for a North Sea ferry to be cancelled. Currently the SWE winds look strongest Saturday afternoon near Newcastle and still lively Sat eve in the southern North Sea, swell picking up. We can chat about the weather aspect but not so much the likelihood of specific services being affected three days ahead, unless someone has experience of that route. 

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7 hours ago, rwlr said:

Hello,

What's the expert opinion on likelihood of cancellation for ferries leaving Newcastle for Amsterdam on Saturday? Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but you guys obviously know your stuff.

Thanks!

It might be a bit lumpy but I'd be very surprise if it was cancelled. I've done plenty of north sea crossings on ferries and sailing boats. The ferries these days have stabilisation systems that enable them to more than hold their ground in the sorts of wind predicted this weekend. 

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