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Honestly it feel like government related entities and infrastructure are paying attention more to the actual potential severity than what colour the warning is. Which is good. But as we've all said, it makes you think about why the damn warnings even exist if train companies etc are calling for cancellations and slower trains even when in a typically "tame" yellow warning. Of course it does seem like a damned if you do damned if you don't scenario for the Met... But picking the South East exclusively doesn't seem to line up with any models that we know them to typically use (and have access to).

The 12Z ECM I was surprised got even more windier, when ive been expecting general "downgrades" (even if small) as we come closer to the time. It suggested 78 MPH gusts right on the Greater London border near myself. While I don't expect it to get THAT high, this will absolutely be the worst storm since 2013 where we lost our fence, and had power flickers. And that was relatively short too. These winds are meant to be gusting at 60mph for many hours, above 50mph for almost a whole day. If they don't expand amber to at least the SW and Wales, then I don't understand the warnings existence.

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A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

Even doors are getting windy ?  

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Granted, Shetland has few trees, but it is dependent on ferries for basic supplies and inter- island communication, personal safety too. 

My point was that severe weather conditions from an individual point of view have effects, whether in the far south london or the attached provinces.

 

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2 minutes ago, ciel said:

Granted, Shetland has few trees, but it is dependent on ferries for basic supplies and inter- island communication, personal safety too. 

My point was that severe weather conditions from an individual point of view have effects, whether in the far south london or the attached provinces.

 

I would be certain that the good people of Shetland are much, much better prepared for storms like this one than people in London or Leicester. You're right of course - a 70mph wind is a 70mph wind wherever it blows but the system allows for some nuance I think between regions.

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The amber area coast line is approaching sping tide this weekend with high tides of around 4.5meters midday sunday. This coupled with the wind is likely to bring coastal flooding.

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The houses in outer Scotland don't usually even have slates - corrugated metal is usual. The buildings also tend to have thicker walls too.

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to me this isn't rocket science. Deep Low passes just to the North of Scotland, strongest of the wind is normally on the southern Flank, so central belt / South Scotland. If a deep low was crossing the centre of Ireland, and across Northern England, then i'd expect the south coast to get the highest winds. Unless they are seeing something different this time.. the current warnings leave me perplexed

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2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

The houses in outer Scotland don't usually even have slates - corrugated metal is usual. The buildings also tend to have thicker walls too.

Pardon 1 !!

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23 minutes ago, Alexis said:

The houses in outer Scotland don't usually even have slates - corrugated metal is usual. The buildings also tend to have thicker walls too.

Pardon!!

When did you last visit the area, if indeed anytime.

 

Edited by ciel
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I was wondering about that one too ? i've never been to Lerwick or the Northern isles but i'd imagine houses are build in similar way to how they are on the mainland.Where i am doesn't seem all that wind proof at all with metal sheet roofs, bits of them occasionally blow off during storms but mine has managed fine through 90mph winds.

 

I think the difference on impacts in built up areas comes more from downed trees on train lines and roads more than anything else.

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Bit of cultural awareness needed within a country!

I know this well from rural Ireland where I spent some time growing up.

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Wouldn't be surprised if the big trees at the bottom of my garden come down. They look precarious at the best of times.

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On 6 February 2020 at 18:52, Mike Poole said:

Well, after over two months of winter, we are now talking about a weather event or events...first the strength of the winds from storm Ciara over the weekend, and then possibilities of snow for some and further storms over the course of next week.

I like a probabilistic take on things, so here's something on the uncertainty about the strength of wind gusts, highest up to including Sunday, to T90 from the 6z ARPEGE ensembles.  The 5 plots below show the minimum, 25%, median, 75% and maximum over the distribution of uncertainty:

image.thumb.jpg.39f8f4b2fa398b00bbf8ad0eda28b148.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.66f082c39bd0b68d048e08f75d4318a5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dd1feb7a28638e9b61d28ff9ba429161.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.235c1e3cb6270b5dbdb013c368a70228.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c255eee431cf60137189fae3059de9b5.jpg

While the max looks over egged, there is clearly potential for damaging wind over pretty much most of the country, which is why the MO warning is widespread.  Hopefully this can be firmed up over the next day or so...

I posted this in the MOD yesterday but probably now more relevant in this thread.  It is interesting to post the same charts from the ARPEGE ensembles 24 hours on, these from today's 6z.  The 5 plots below show, for maximum wind gusts through to close of play Sunday, the minimum, 25%, median (50%), 75% and maximum over the distribution of uncertainty:

image.thumb.jpg.8f7e58d5728b4a365c8259eb1fdb5e8a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0701a82c91532ba472d7ca7d0cf2533b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ed45375e6a9199af8665fb9f125a97ef.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.54f9bb20523bab6a5d17a1695deee988.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.5f31c1ebd474f840e807e279a26c876d.jpg

interesting that the uncertainty doesn't really seem to have reduced if at all, but the 50% and 75% plots seem to have edged upwards a notch, so I think the comments on here about the severity of this, particularly the geographical extent of it, vis-a-vis the MO warnings are entirely justified, and it ties in with what others have said about the ECM 12z op.  However, the point about the wide uncertainty range remains, and this may be why we will need to wait until tomorrow to see if more widespread warnings are issued by the MO.

 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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9 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I was wondering about that one too ? i've never been to Lerwick or the Northern isles but i'd imagine houses are build in similar way to how they are on the mainland.Where i am doesn't seem all that wind proof at all with metal sheet roofs, bits of them occasionally blow off during storms but mine has managed fine through 90mph winds.

 

I think the difference on impacts in built up areas comes more from downed trees on train lines and roads more than anything else.

Well, although I have not been up there in the past 5 yrs or so, I did notice at that time quite a change in building, much more to the Scandinavian style. The problem is, Shetland does not have home-grown wood.

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The other thing that makes a mockery of it all is the fact they named it when they issued a yellow warning. I mean, it looked likely an amber warning would be issued at some point, but they have gone against their own criteria for naming storms. I've lost count the number of times this has happened!

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Arpege is topping the gusts out at 60-70mph here. So yes windy but not excessively so. 

We had 80mph + in Feb 2014

By the time you get to 80mph, it's pretty much just a constant roar outside. Very eerie it was.

Edited by CreweCold
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48 minutes ago, windseeker said:

The amber area coast line is approaching sping tide this weekend with high tides of around 4.5meters midday sunday. This coupled with the wind is likely to bring coastal flooding.

I didn’t realise that we were due for spring tides. Slightly worrying I’m right on the SE coast. 

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The other thing that makes a mockery of it all is the fact they named it when they issued a yellow warning. I mean, it looked likely an amber warning would be issued at some point, but they have gone against their own criteria for naming storms. I've lost count the number of times this has happened!

They have given the SE an amber warning

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When major weather-events like these do occur, there are three things that always remain constant: the storm is either named but shouldn't've been, or not named when it should've been; weather warnings are the wrong colour or don't cover the 'right' areas; and warnings per se are deemed 'unfit for purpose'...:gathering:

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Even if the actual gusts are lower than forecast, they're still higher than a typical winter storm. Plus it's occurring during the daytime. So it seems v likely there will be wind-related damage and fatalities.

Unless there is a substantial downgrade tomorrow - warnings should be upgraded!

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Plenty of high-routes here in the Pennines that will bear the brunt of the strongest gusts, probable 80mph gusts at times on the Cat+Fiddle, Snake Pass, and Woodhead being the obvious, also the Long-Hill (Goyt Valley) road that is just as exposed.

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9 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Even if the actual gusts are lower than forecast, they're still higher than a typical winter storm. Plus it's occurring during the daytime. So it seems v likely there will be wind-related damage and fatalities.

Unless there is a substantial downgrade tomorrow - warnings should be upgraded!

Quite agree Pete and you could have added questioning the integrity of professional forecasters of many years experience

Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Early signs of the storm appearing on NOAA satellite imagery. 

 

That's not the one that's heading our way on Sunday. It's still over the US east coast

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