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Just now, Man With Beard said:

No you're not interpreting anything wrong - in the case of Birmingham clearly even the GFS didn't work. My sense is that 60mph was a fair reflection for most locations but, perhaps if the GFS does have a weakness, it is that it doesn't really do the fine details - it just paints everywhere within 20 miles the same. You've got me thinking too check how high definition models like AROME did - did they pick the local variations? I shall check and post what I find ?

Thank you. I appreciate your patience! ?

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A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

Even doors are getting windy ?  

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OK so looking at the AROME 06Z this morning, it was showing more local differences - in general, most places got to 90kmh (so between mid 50s and low 60s mph) and favoured spots + E Anglia got the 110kmh band (so 70s mph+) 

So perhaps a little more useful than longer range models for seeing the picture in one's own back yard. 

aromehd-52-15-0.png

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21 minutes ago, MysticMouflon said:

BBC == Meteo == ECM?

I know they use it, but i'm not sure about the website/app forecasts.

Current ECM shows around 50 km/h gusts here, which is right inline with what I am recording  now - circa 30mph. The BBC are showing 60mph.

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Anyway, it's been an eventful day and one I have enjoyed. 3 new station records for me. However, on further inspection, I have found 3 more fence posts snapped on the opposite side of my garden. They've stood level for nearly 20 years, but since the neighbour ran an irrigation system along the fence line, that all changed. I'm certainly not paying for those!

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There must have been a microburst or something just north of here in Leicestershire. I found one wind gust of 80mph, with a huge fall in temperature.

Thge rest of the gusts seem reasonable, so maybe micro burst, small tornado?

windgust.png

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1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

There must have been a microburst or something just north of here in Leicestershire. I found one wind gust of 80mph, with a huge fall in temperature.

Thge rest of the gusts seem reasonable, so maybe micro burst, small tornado?

windgust.png

If you run the radar back to around 2pm, you can see where the squall line passed over. If it was a tornado, the wind direction wouldn't show up like that. It would show directions starting off roughly SW, moving through several compass points, then showing NW or N. That sudden flip is definitely just as the squall line went through.

The squall line didn't amount to much down here, but you can see when it moved through - around 4:45pm

WindDirDay.thumb.png.d5b9c6a20eeb915722a5a75e440be6ff.png

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I know they use it, but i'm not sure about the website/app forecasts.

Current ECM shows around 50 km/h gusts here, which is right inline with what I am recording  now - circa 30mph. The BBC are showing 60mph.

I naively thought that most 'simply' lifted it from whichever model they use so, to take the case of GFS-based forecasts which @Man With Beard was helping me with earlier, it's less than suitable for local forecasting. It would certainly *appear* (I may very well be wrong) that sites like XCWeather and, dare I say it, this one do exactly that for their 'local' forecasts because, for the 5 or 6 locations I was following today (including Birmingham, Bristol, Colchester and Hull - so a fair spread), they seemed to bear very little resemblance to reality.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

OK so looking at the AROME 06Z this morning, it was showing more local differences - in general, most places got to 90kmh (so between mid 50s and low 60s mph) and favoured spots + E Anglia got the 110kmh band (so 70s mph+) 

So perhaps a little more useful than longer range models for seeing the picture in one's own back yard. 

aromehd-52-15-0.png

Very interesting. Thanks!

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8 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

There must have been a microburst or something just north of here in Leicestershire. I found one wind gust of 80mph, with a huge fall in temperature.

Thge rest of the gusts seem reasonable, so maybe micro burst, small tornado?

windgust.png

 

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

If you run the radar back to around 2pm, you can see where the squall line passed over. If it was a tornado, the wind direction wouldn't show up like that. It would show directions starting off roughly SW, moving through several compass points, then showing NW or N. That sudden flip is definitely just as the squall line went through.

The squall line didn't amount to much down here, but you can see when it moved through - around 4:45pm

WindDirDay.thumb.png.d5b9c6a20eeb915722a5a75e440be6ff.png

I saw on meteociel that manc airport recorded 140 km/h gust with the squall ...... haven’t seen that anywhere else though ??

the gusts associated with the squall line would be very localised and therefore, to say any particular model was wrong may not be true on a micro scale ???.

5CC03514-3612-4C4E-A840-B2706BE1D0A3.jpeg

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Well yesterday was a day of ups and downs.

The squall line passing through yesterday was intense, although I didn't see anything like it at 2am this morning. Another squall line went through and the sound was so loud I couldn't even put it into words. The wind, rain and hail smashing into the window at such speeds was incredible.

Unfortunately, I missed 2 light shows yesterday, one in the morning, (which i'm not too annoyed about because it only produced one lightning strike) and another storm north of Huntingdon, the perfect distance to see distant lightning.

And also, look what I found this morning!

1242477313_IMG_06311.thumb.JPG.e26db9aea1b24678e570c811d944e55e.JPG

A shed in the field right beside me got torn off the ground and almost ripped to shreds!

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17 hours ago, Nick L said:

A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.

 

Should have chucked him back in for being a idiot.

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Media coverage - 'Storm of the Century' - Err No!

However.... I hope the children seen on YouTube being dragged along Blackpool sea front were OK; also the TV Shepherdess got her horsebox back from the river in Swaledale.  

Rainfall - North Lakes and Snowdonia were particularly badly affected with 128mm at Shap (Times). Perhaps not unusual for the areas concerned but helps to explain the flooding. I wish the affected residents and businesses well. 

 

 

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Im not sure how location specific the warnings are meant to be, however it would have been a much more accurate warning to go with yellow on the west half of the country and amber on the east, possibly amber on the west coast of wales too.

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Hi gang ,just had a very intense shower ,thunder one clap ,hail and possibly a gust of wind on a par with yesterdays gusts .looking at radar some of these cells look Angry ,my location is west mendip, cheers .

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4 hours ago, Garybournemouth said:

FB_IMG_1581322713627.jpg

I have no doubt that this was correct for The Wash area, but Cornwall / West Devon? There was a gust of over 100mph on Tamar Bridge, Plymouth around 15 years ago. Surely Ciara was not as strong as that? 

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On 07/02/2020 at 20:03, Ross90 said:

I was wondering about that one too ? i've never been to Lerwick or the Northern isles but i'd imagine houses are build in similar way to how they are on the mainland.Where i am doesn't seem all that wind proof at all with metal sheet roofs, bits of them occasionally blow off during storms but mine has managed fine through 90mph winds.

 

I think the difference on impacts in built up areas comes more from downed trees on train lines and roads more than anything else.

I'd also suggest that thats because your roof didn't experience 90mph winds, probably at most more like 50-60mph.

I say this as most wind reports from the weather sites are exposed and almost always tend to record higher then what your garden and house gets.

A gust reported on the local weather in the 60s mph is more like the 40s mph for most people.

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26 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I'd also suggest that thats because your roof didn't experience 90mph winds, probably at most more like 50-60mph.

I say this as most wind reports from the weather sites are exposed and almost always tend to record higher then what your garden and house gets.

A gust reported on the local weather in the 60s mph is more like the 40s mph for most people.

There's a small weather station a mile away at the college recorded 91mph that day, the central belt got 85-95mph widely on Jan 3rd 2012.Quite widespread minor damage with loads of roof tiles off and trees down.The difference between 50/60mph and 90mph is quite noticeable although i'd agree most people probably never experience 80+ in the UK. 

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18 hours ago, abruzzi spur said:

The usual moaning on here where some are incapable of acknowledging something unless it's happened in their actual garden or, at worst, the next street.  It baffles me why so many feel the need to do this 'non-event over hyped' garbage.  It's often combined with faintly frothing rants at the Met Office, maybe because the Met Office is full of clever scientists who make their living through their talents.

Unless, perish the thought, the critics are attention seeking ?

Out of all of the predictions the Met Office got it right the most with widespread 50-70mph gusts in squalls and 30-50mph gusts throughout the day which is exactly what happened.

I imagine most on here like me who were a bit disappointed is because of the other models which always over do the winds giving predictions of 60-70mph gusts all throughout the day and 75mph+ occasionally which was obviously way over the top but would have made the storm more interesting and different.

I don't get the Met Office bashing though.

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3 hours ago, sjw2511 said:

Im not sure how location specific the warnings are meant to be, however it would have been a much more accurate warning to go with yellow on the west half of the country and amber on the east, possibly amber on the west coast of wales too.

You could probably even go with two separate warnings.

One of yellow for most of the day where there were 40-50mph gusts and a separate amber highlighting the 55mph or higher gusts in squalls.

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