Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[A Face like Thunder]

6 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

I believe if next weekends storm materialises it will be named Dennis.

But will we get to Vince and Willow?!

[Hirudine]

Peak winds may have passed, but we're getting torrential rain right now- possibly the heaviest of the storm.

[Hirudine]

Just seen lightning!

[Schnee]

17 minutes ago, Bradowl said:

I believe if next weekends storm materialises it will be named Dennis.

If it comes off, it'll be a menace. I'm working turnstile support at a football match....

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Liam J]

A wild day in Cumbria thanks to Ciara! Severe gales and flooding. 
 

Edited February 9, 2020 by DisruptiveGust

[Cheshire Freeze]

42 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

I don't think it's fair to call this event over-hyped and let's not forget the people who have been badly affected by the storm in places such as W Yorkshire and Cumbria. However the reality for some of us is that the storm was not as bad as first feared and I for one am glad that this was the case.

In South Cheshire, the squall line passed through with about 15 minutes of torrential rain at 11.45am and, despite some angry clouds around later on, we have seen no more rain since then and the wind has died down. 

I've been in S Cheshire for 20 years, and the gale ranks no higher than 4th in my list of memorable and destructive gales in the area. In 1st place was the gale of 18th January 2007 which caused widespread destruction and this was followed by the gales of Feb 12th 2014 and Feb 23rd 2017. The former resulted in chaos at our local railway station when bits of the roof fell on the live wires and the fire brigade had to be called in to put out the resulting flames. The latter arose from Storm Doris which caused widespread damage.

Better to be safe than sorry I think was the byword in this case and I am sure we should be grateful that for most of us, this was no more than a good opportunity to see nature at work.  

 

 

I remember all the events you mention. Jan 2007 was just brutal. I remember huge trees completely bent over in the wind that day.

I had to walk back to mine from the uni and it's the only time I remember actually fearing for my life as a result of the weather.

Feb 2014 was pretty severe too.

Today was like a fart by comparison here.

Edited February 9, 2020 by CreweCold

[Ross90]

I think the storm in general was in line what most models and forecasts were suggesting.60-70 mph inland across England and Wales with 80-90mph around coasts and exposed areas.I'd say it was stronger than average especially in those areas but probably just short of severe.

 

The big loser was the bbc, they were way too high for most areas.85mph that they hinted at in the central belt ended up being more like 55mph while most forecasts in other areas were 10 mph too high as well, a bit of an embarrassment really, they should have stuck with the met...

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

The higher winds for the SE did not materialize, then - no places in the SE figured in the top 20 gusts table. 

Looks like areas near The Wash for the worst of the "inland" gusts. 

Overall a decent storm but there have been worse ones here near the S Coast in recent years with almost no hype at all. 

For here it was a decent storm but 2nd November 2019 was a bit worse here in terms of stronger gusts but for a much shorter period of time maybe about an hour, today was only noteworthy here for the duration of strong gusts lasting most of the day, and the one squall that did finally reach here about 6.30 and did produce almost a hurricane like effect rain for about 2 minutes 

[MysticMouflon]

29 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

I don't think it's fair to call this event over-hyped.....

I agree. I'm glad the people I care about heeded the advice and stayed indoors today. I also feel sad for all the people who are suffering and will continue to suffer for many days to come as a result of what has happened to them.

The 'weather nerds' (I'm here, so I'm guilty as charged) certainly did over-hype it though. The models weren't great in the end - 60-70 mph gusts as squalls go over is not the same as hours of 60-70 mph widespread inland gusts - but quite a few people were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of half the country being flattened whilst giving the Met Office a kicking for resisting the urge to over-egg it too soon because it didn't fit with what they wanted to happen. Let's be honest, it didn't really happen as advertised.

I apologise. I know I'm being a bit provocative but it you read through this thread from the start, you might see what I'm getting at.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, MysticMouflon said:

I agree. I'm glad the people I care about heeded the advice and stayed indoors today. I also feel sad for all the people who are suffering and will continue to suffer for many days to come as a result of what has happened to them.

The 'weather nerds' (I'm here, so I'm guilty as charged) certainly did over-hype it though. The models weren't great in the end - 60-70 mph gusts as squalls go over is not the same as hours of 60-70 mph widespread inland gusts - but quite a few people were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of half the country being flattened whilst giving the Met Office a kicking for resisting the urge to over-egg it too soon because it didn't fit with what they wanted to happen. Let's be honest, it didn't really happen as advertised.

I apologise. I know I'm being a bit provocative but it you read through this thread from the start, you might see what I'm getting at.

Fair point. One reflection I will take away is that the ECM overdid the event (it had Chichester with 86mph winds at just T12) , and I usually trust the ECM to be the closest - but the GFS was far closer to the mark overall. In fact, the GFS has been pretty good with most wind events in the past 6 years (it nailed Feb 2014 too) once it gets within T72. I know where I will be looking first next time! 

[Mapantz]

One model I don't trust is the Arpege. It wouldn't surprise me if BBC Weather were using that as it had ludicrous gust figures for here, and still does now!

[Sparkiee storm]

Here's the 2 pics of the leaning tree of storm Ciara, which finally fell perfectly in a garden without any damage at all (luckily) an hour after the squall passed.

[MysticMouflon]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Fair point. One reflection I will take away is that the ECM overdid the event (it had Chichester with 86mph winds at just T12) , and I usually trust the ECM to be the closest - but the GFS was far closer to the mark overall. In fact, the GFS has been pretty good with most wind events in the past 6 years (it nailed Feb 2014 too) once it gets within T72. I know where I will be looking first next time! 

I am definitely showing my ignorance here but the GFS charts/forecasts I saw were also way over the top in terms of wind speeds. Am I looking at the wrong things? I genuinely want to learn!

[MysticMouflon]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

One model I don't trust is the Arpege. It wouldn't surprise me if BBC Weather were using that as it had ludicrous gust figures for here, and still does now!

BBC == Meteo == ECM?

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

One model I don't trust is the Arpege. It wouldn't surprise me if BBC Weather were using that as it had ludicrous gust figures for here, and still does now!

I like the ARPEGE for a lot of things, but it's hopeless at winds. I stopped taking that one seriously after Hurricane Ophelia, when it verged on a Cat 3 equivalent landfall! 

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, MysticMouflon said:

I am definitely showing my ignorance here but the GFS charts/forecasts I saw were also way over the top in terms of wind speeds. Am I looking at the wrong things? I genuinely want to learn!

No I don't think so actually - the GFS was generally around the 60mph mark for most inland areas and a few favoured spots + coasts were predicted at 70mph+ for a while. Pretty accurate. It never played with the 80mph+ category like some others did. At least that's my recollection? 

[Ross90]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I like the ARPEGE for a lot of things, but it's hopeless at winds. I stopped taking that one seriously after Hurricane Ophelia, when it verged on a Cat 3 equivalent landfall! 

In my opinion your best bet during windy spells is to go with whichever model shows the lowest speeds.For some reason most of them go too high especially in the 4-7 day period, much the same with snow really, go with the most pessimistic model and you won't be far off. 

[MysticMouflon]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

No I don't think so actually - the GFS was generally around the 60mph mark for most inland areas and a few favoured spots + coasts were predicted at 70mph+ for a while. Pretty accurate. It never played with the 80mph+ category like some others did. At least that's my recollection? 

I believe you but, let's take Birmingham for example, the GFS-based forecasts were saying gusts in the mid to high 60s for 4 hours in a row but it never gusted above the low 50s. The GFS charts I saw seemed to agree with this. I'm not arguing - I can see that you know A LOT more than I do - so I would like to understand where I'm going wrong with how I'm interpreting things.

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

In my opinion your best bet during windy spells is to go with whichever model shows the lowest speeds.For some reason most of them go too high especially in the 4-7 day period, much the same with snow really, go with the most pessimistic model and you won't be far off. 

I wouldn't go that far - I recall the Feb 2014 storm, plenty were making less of it than what actually happened - but where I would agree is to ditch any model that is out of kilter on the high side compared with the middle ground - and even if it is the mighty ECM, after this one! 

[Robbie Garrett]

Just wow...

 

 

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, MysticMouflon said:

I believe you but, let's take Birmingham for example, the GFS-based forecasts were saying gusts in the mid to high 60s for 4 hours in a row but it never gusted above the low 50s. The GFS charts I saw seemed to agree with this. I'm not arguing - I can see that you know A LOT more than I do - so I would like to understand where I'm going wrong with how I'm interpreting things.

No you're not interpreting anything wrong - in the case of Birmingham clearly even the GFS didn't work. My sense is that 60mph was a fair reflection for most locations but, perhaps if the GFS does have a weakness, it is that it doesn't really do the fine details - it just paints everywhere within 20 miles the same. You've got me thinking too check how high definition models like AROME did - did they pick the local variations? I shall check and post what I find

[MysticMouflon]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

No you're not interpreting anything wrong - in the case of Birmingham clearly even the GFS didn't work. My sense is that 60mph was a fair reflection for most locations but, perhaps if the GFS does have a weakness, it is that it doesn't really do the fine details - it just paints everywhere within 20 miles the same. You've got me thinking too check how high definition models like AROME did - did they pick the local variations? I shall check and post what I find

Thank you. I appreciate your patience!

[Man With Beard]

OK so looking at the AROME 06Z this morning, it was showing more local differences - in general, most places got to 90kmh (so between mid 50s and low 60s mph) and favoured spots + E Anglia got the 110kmh band (so 70s mph+) 

So perhaps a little more useful than longer range models for seeing the picture in one's own back yard. 

[Mapantz]

21 minutes ago, MysticMouflon said:

BBC == Meteo == ECM?

I know they use it, but i'm not sure about the website/app forecasts.

Current ECM shows around 50 km/h gusts here, which is right inline with what I am recording  now - circa 30mph. The BBC are showing 60mph.