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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

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If that's what they're actually expecting then it should be a widespread amber warning, maybe even red in the northwest.I don't know where they're getting that info because none of the models are showing winds that high.Even the bbc has 60 mph max where i am, that map is showing 75 mph... the latest gfs is barely showing 50mph.

Edited by Ross90

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Just now, Ross90 said:

If that's what they're actually expecting then it should be a widespread amber warning, maybe even red in the northwest.I don't know where they're getting that info because none of the models are showing winds that high.Even the bbc has 60 mph max where i am, that map is showing 75 mph...

What I'm showing you is the ECMWF model. 

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Not looking forward to this storm at all. If there is one thing I hate, it's very strong winds. Hoping my radio antenna system will survive.....

They did survive the 2014 storm, but....

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

This from the 0600 ecm

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1242400.thumb.png.29739082bf452f14428232d7c411b5f7.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1253200.thumb.png.4c13fc98023425a6d5eb1d06f38ca373.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1260400.thumb.png.6bb30a4f89dfe056fca2c605d5ea0dfb.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-gust_kt-1267600.thumb.png.b3416f3409e785d6ad09ee5394312efa.png

Thanks knocker, didn't have time to copy across the latest run. The 06z has moderated things slightly but still has gusts of up to and a little above 70mph well inland. 

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Not sure why east anglia hasn't been upgraded yet, looks like 70mph gust across the region.

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Just to clarify...My dispute with the warning isn't necessarily with the strength of the winds (although I do disagree with it), it's more that they've singled out an area which I don't think is more prone than anywhere else during this event. 70mph+ gusts for London and Birmingham is not a usual occurrence! 

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10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

What I'm showing you is the ECMWF model. 

It seems to be an outlier, even the gfs which usually over plays stormy weather is showing 70 max inland and that's probably mostly over exposed areas.I'd trust the mets forecast on windspeeds over the ecm or gfs anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It seems to be an outlier, even the gfs which usually over plays stormy weather is showing 70 max inland and that's probably mostly over exposed areas.I'd trust the mets forecast on windspeeds over the ecm or gfs anyway. 

But it isn't an outlier, either with itself or other models. UKV (i.e. the Met Office model) gusts won't be available to see until tomorrow but the mean wind speeds are very similar to the ECMWF.

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6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Just to clarify...My dispute with the warning isn't necessarily with the strength of the winds (although I do disagree with it), it's more that they've singled out an area which I don't think is more prone than anywhere else during this event. 70mph+ gusts for London and Birmingham is not a usual occurrence! 

But could it also be due to the length of duration factored in? As you say Nick 70+ is not unusual in London, but strong winds over 12 hours might be the reasoning for the amber :unknw:

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4 minutes ago, MAF said:

But could it also be due to the length of duration factored in? As you say Nick 70+ is not unusual in London, but strong winds over 12 hours might be the reasoning for the amber :unknw:

I said the opposite, it very much is unusual ?

But again, I'm not seeing a significant difference with the length of time of the strong winds either. I just don't understand why that area has been singled out. I would be curious to hear their reasoning!

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25 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

 

Re amber warnings etc.  Is it to do with population density?  I only ask because when we had the March 2013 snow dump, our local farmers on Wale shropshire marches lost many lambs and sheep due to the intensity and depth of snow.  We were on a yellow warning. When Met Office contacted they said it was human population density that raised warning rate.  That went down well not...

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2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I said the opposite, it very much is unusual ?

But again, I'm not seeing a significant difference with the length of time of the strong winds either. I just don't understand why that area has been singled out. I would be curious to hear their reasoning!

sorry, i misread the sentence. my bad ?

as for their reasoning, well i guess they are a law unto themselves and we wont ever see an explanation. at the end of the day, so long as everyone is safe and by heeding any type of warning there is no casualties then that will be a good outcome 

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Ok let's leave it there please.

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15 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Re amber warnings etc.  Is it to do with population density?  I only ask because when we had the March 2013 snow dump, our local farmers on Wale shropshire marches lost many lambs and sheep due to the intensity and depth of snow.  We were on a yellow warning. When Met Office contacted they said it was human population density that raised warning rate.  That went down well not...

You'd think so wouldn't you. I mean, a 60mph wind in the Outer Hebrides is probably "normal" for that population, wheras the same event in London would be a very different animal.

 

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12 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

You'd think so wouldn't you. I mean, a 60mph wind in the Outer Hebrides is probably "normal" for that population, wheras the same event in London would be a very different animal.

 

That makes this decision even more puzzling. Winds in London are likely to be very similar to the gusts in Kent and Sussex.

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In my opinion there should or will be at least Amber out for vast areas of the UK soon as surely there is a danger to life from gusts around 70mph in built up areas and rural with falling trees etc. 

More danger than issuing a red warning for very heavy snow 

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34 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That makes this decision even more puzzling. Winds in London are likely to be very similar to the gusts in Kent and Sussex.

I guess, as they suggest, gusts will be more closer to the English Channel coast and over the Downs bordering the coast than further north inland, perhaps why the only went for south of London.

Spring tides next few days too, what with the full moon on Sunday, that will increase risk of coastal flooding given strong southwesterly wind and the long fetch.

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Agree with the amber warning but not really sure why it's that particular area........ have just looked through model output for wind gusts and anywhere from NW England to the southeast could see similar gusts at some point on Sunday. I'd be more concerned about the inland areas that don't normally get gusts above ~60mph.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Agree with the amber warning but not really sure why it's that particular area........ have just looked through model output for wind gusts and anywhere from NW England to the southeast could see similar gusts at some point on Sunday. I'd be more concerned about the inland areas that don't normally get gusts above ~60mph.

That's the way I'm seeing it from the models too...here's ARPEGE 6z take on it, maximum gusts through to end Sunday, I wouldn't say the highest are confined to amber area, so must just be their confidence at this stage given considerable uncertainty, and will probably be updated tomorrow.

arpegeuk-52-66-0.thumb.png.6953eafff4169ddfb9b48773f58d4336.png

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2 hours ago, Nick L said:

But that's not what the model output is showing at all. This was last night's EC but things are still pretty much the same.

image.thumb.png.c136a9380d07c9e87367aa7bc28467db.png

If the models were showing what you're describing then I'd completely agree. What's baffling me is how the Met Office are ignoring consistent model output except for a small area in the southeast!

It's going to be interesting to see which model was on the ball earliest. Here's some more:

54-289UK.GIF?07-6

euro4_uk1-11-54-0.png?07-11

arpegeuk-11-54-0.png?07-12

gemfr-14-60.png?00

So the ECM, GFS and ARPEGE all take the very strong gusts through all inland areas, whilst the EURO4 and GEM keep inland areas a bit tamer than the coasts.

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1 hour ago, snefnug said:

Re amber warnings etc.  Is it to do with population density?  I only ask because when we had the March 2013 snow dump, our local farmers on Wale shropshire marches lost many lambs and sheep due to the intensity and depth of snow.  We were on a yellow warning. When Met Office contacted they said it was human population density that raised warning rate.  That went down well not...

My goodness!  That would be a truly bonkers way to determine the need for warnings to be issued.  Taken to the extreme it would mean that their policy would be not to issue any warning at all in the least populated areas due to the absence of people!  But what about visitors to the area, inlcuding tourists from London?  Don't they count?  The problem with this policy would be that the areas most prone to severe weather which require warnings to be issued to the public are frequently the least populated areas too.  I am as puzzled as some others on here that the south coast is deserving of an amber warning when the west coast including sizeable towns like Aberystwyth only get a yellow?  Does the MetO think the people in Aberystwyth are more resilient or something?  Or maybe the west coast is not going to experience such high wind speeds?  Seems unlikely though, looking at the models......

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Looks like the MetO press release makes clear that more areas could receive amber and it also states that Ciara will be the strongest storm since 2013... just popped up as breaking news on the Sky News app.

Re the SE amber warning - clearly that must have access to more detailed date than us to warrant putting the area up to amber as early as this morning.

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2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Thanks knocker, didn't have time to copy across the latest run. The 06z has moderated things slightly but still has gusts of up to and a little above 70mph well inland. 

Nick, when you say speeds have been moderated slightly, is there any chance/hope that the winds could moderate on the journey of is it pretty much a done deal that we will get at least the speeds quoted ?

Thanks

Edited by Isabellesnanny

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5 minutes ago, seb said:

Looks like the MetO press release makes clear that more areas could receive amber and it also states that Ciara will be the strongest storm since 2013... just popped up as breaking news on the Sky News app.

Re the SE amber warning - clearly that must have access to more detailed date than us to warrant putting the area up to amber as early as this morning.

Optimistic but possible, although on past experience with their warnings I'd label that explanation generous. We'll see, but I suspect a widespread amber warning will be issued tomorrow when it could very easily have been done today.

3 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Nick, when you say speeds have been moderated slightly, is there any chance/hope that the winds could moderate on the journey of us it pretty much a done deal that we will get at least the speeds quoted ?

Thanks

Models have been very consistent (unusually so) for the strength of the gusts we're seeing so I'd be surprised if there's a significant backtrack now (famous last words). And when I said moderated slightly, it was probably just inter-run variability. The 18z ECMWF last night nudged the max gusts down slightly but brought them back up over night. I'm still confident we'll be seeing 70+ gusts inland.

Edited by Nick L

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