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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3


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A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

Even doors are getting windy ?  

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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Squall line just passing.  The wind is roaring ??

Out of interest does this squall have the worst winds you have seen all day?

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Found a nice frame from when I filmed the squall line coming over at 14:30, as I noticed a cell/white blob on the Rain Radar. Must say, I really enjoyed that line. Now the blue skies are showing.

cell-1.jpg

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The attention will soon turn to the south east corner. Some models ramp up the winds between now and 6pm for the counties south of London, with a few models closer to 90mph in places - though this does include the ECM which has been slightly too high further north.

Best verifying model so far imo is the GFS! It's always been pretty good for winds speeds within 72 hours (a bit mad beyond 72), it nailed the Feb 2014 storm, and I think it's been pretty close to the mark today - generally 60-69mph with a few spots over 70mph. If the GFS continues to be right today, we will probably only see an 80mph plus (at a sea level reporting station) in Kent. 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The attention will soon turn to the south east corner. Some models ramp up the winds between now and 6pm for the counties south of London, with a few models closer to 90mph in places - though this does include the ECM which has been slightly too high further north.

Best verifying model so far imo is the GFS! It's always been pretty good for winds speeds within 72 hours (a bit mad beyond 72), it nailed the Feb 2014 storm, and I think it's been pretty close to the mark today - generally 60-69mph with a few spots over 70mph. If the GFS continues to be right today, we will probably only see an 80mph plus (at a sea level reporting station) in Kent. 

Just wondering if based on this Ciara still has one more trick up her sleeve, and I will get some good winds in North London?

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Looking at the radar, the squall seems to have developed some bulges and tentative signs of developing LEWP segments. Just west of Reading looks interesting.

Screenshot_20200209-151658.jpg

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59 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.

 

I was on Hastings beach just by the lifeboat station as it went out. It's hard to comprehend anyone going near that sea today. 

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Holbeach (near The Wash) official weather station reporting 78mph gust just now - that's lively.

@MetWeather based on this the worst still has not got to you. 

Cranwell in Lincs also had 77mph gust just now

 

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52 minutes ago, matty40s said:

There have been widespread 70mph gusts, Kent, Lincolnshire, Cambridgshire, Notts, Derbys, etc

Fair enough, but looking back over the predictions (which is all they were), 'we' were potentially in for hours of it, not sporadic gusts associated with frontal activity. (I feel very sorry for the poor people who have suffered as a result.)

The MO were getting quite a lot of stick about their forecasts and warnings but I don't think they were that far off in the end, even when it comes to the earlier amber warning in the south east which is now starting to look at the very least prescient.

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Went to Folkstone to see how rough the sea was and I'm pretty glad I went, the wind was amazing as I had trouble moving around whilst trying to get a grip ?

 

 

 

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