Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[Hurricane Debby]

 

[Wilxy]

Still confused as to why Scotland isn't covered by a Amber warning when the winds look stronger than what is showing in the south for tomorrow!

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Freeze said:

I agree, I understand the safety side of things of course and  appreciate everyones care, but a webcam footage of the seafront just doesn’t do a windstorm justice with me, I enjoy the thrill but without being stupid about it, the seafront is only a minutes walk from my house

DO it then , and enjoy, having been a storm chaser in the USA for many years, the thrill is in the goal...

[Dorsetbred]

3 minutes ago, TomW said:

Still confused as to why Scotland isn't covered by a Amber warning when the winds look stronger than what is showing in the south for tomorrow!

COZ, they're use to it...maybe?

One will never understand the MetO...

Of course the other thing is, that the current track puts the strongest winds on the SW/ S/ SE quarter of the storm which equates to the mid/ southerm areas of the Uk, rather than Scotland, being more on the northerly flank..

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, TomW said:

Still confused as to why Scotland isn't covered by a Amber warning when the winds look stronger than what is showing in the south for tomorrow!

Probably because this is the only model (ECMWF) that is really showing winds like this, and every other model is showing it to the north and a lot weaker.

[Dorsetbred]

8 minutes ago, Soaring Hawk said:

Great idea! D’you mind if I join you? Should be in time for early supper with friends in north east Scotland

With a SSW / SW wind you might end up in Scandinavia rather than Scotland, but heyho, give it a go..

Edited February 8, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[snefnug]

51 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Your post reminded me of a Peter cook, Rowan Atkinson sketch about the end of the world, where the burning question was ' Will the wind be so mighty as to lay low the mountains of the earth?' Hilariously funny sketch.

I've a trip planned to N Wales tomorrow, but it all hinges on what the conditions are like then, decided to leave travelling until the afternoon after we've assessed the risks.

Just heard that again on youtube.  Made my evening  

[DaveL]

1 hour ago, Dbarb said:

 

The bbc suggesting hours of 80mph winds for Southampton, is this an error or they know something we dont 

88 mph gusts, bonkers! It's still there too but the airport says 63 mph and even Lee on Solent beach says 67 mph. Sloppy work there.

[Dbarb]

2 minutes ago, DaveL said:

88 mph gusts, bonkers! It's still there too but the airport says 63 mph and even Lee on Solent beach says 67 mph. Sloppy work there.

Yeah checked areas around Southampton and all maxing at around 70mph, strange.

[Dorsetbred]

3 minutes ago, DaveL said:

88 mph gusts, bonkers! It's still there too but the airport says 63 mph and even Lee on Solent beach says 67 mph. Sloppy work there.

So, whilst I appreciate the suggested wind speed differences, bear in mind you are talking media resources, i.e. BBC. Stick with the better sources, i.e. on here. Does it matter to you if it's 67 or 88mph both are extremely damaging, and right now conjecture....

[DaveL]

5 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

So, whilst I appreciate the suggested wind speed differences, bear in mind you are talking media resources, i.e. BBC. Stick with the better sources, i.e. on here. Does it matter to you if it's 67 or 88mph both are extremely damaging, and right now conjecture....

I use model outputs not the media stuff, but most people in my experience rely on the BBC etc., so errors of this magnitude just aren't acceptable.

Edited February 8, 2020 by DaveL

[Mike Poole]

I wouldn't rely on wind gusts estimates on apps, to be honest.  As far as I know they are just taken from publicly available models, primarily GFS, and will change with the wind! or with each 6hr GFS run.  

I'd go with the gusts suggested on the MO warnings, now that the amber one covers a sensible area of the country, or look at the actual output of the higher res models that people post on here.

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, DaveL said:

I use model outputs not the media stuff, but most people in my experience rely on the BBC etc., so errors of this magnitude just aren't acceptable.

Hmm, acceptable or a fact of life, it is what it is, unfortunately..

[Mapantz]

It's gonna get rough, and that's the bottom line!

[kold weather]

32 minutes ago, TomW said:

Still confused as to why Scotland isn't covered by a Amber warning when the winds look stronger than what is showing in the south for tomorrow!

To my knowledge the warnings are not just an objective look at the worst weather, but to an extent also the impact level and likelihood of the event. I think where the SE especially differs is its not as used to such an event, so this will have a higher impact down there (especially given higher population density as well) whilst Scotland does tend to get these more often, so the threshold for an event that requires amber level of impact may just be a little higher as well, as well as obviously some model uncertainty further north depending on the exact location of the core of the LP.

I remember similar things being mentioned during snow events that got a yellow warning in the southeast despite it being relatively minor, the explanation being it will have a bigger impact than a similar even would have if it was elsewhere.

Edited February 8, 2020 by kold weather

[Derecho]

56 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I am thinking of going on the rides at the end of Brighton pier tomorrow afternoon..........

Enjoy... 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[ChezWeather]

In times like this i think we all need to watch this classic clip from good old Hurricane Bawbag

Tomorrow looks like it will be quite a day for us weather enthusiasts, enjoy everyone and stay safe, who knows, you might gain a new piece of garden furniture or even a trampoline! 

 

 

[Zak M]

48 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Flood warning coastal parts of Inverclyde! I believe this is the first flood WARNING in my area since Hurricane Bawbag 

Hurricane what?

Edit: Ahhhh I've never heard someone call it that before 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Zak M

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hurricane what?

Edit: Ahhhh I've never heard someone call it that before 

I wince every time I hear that name.

[Mike Poole]

State of play as of now, wind gusts km/h:

Still very much the calm before the storm chez moi.  What gusts have been recorded in Scotland thus far, anyone?

[Zak M]

Delete

Edited February 8, 2020 by Zak M

[stripeyfox]

15 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

In times like this i think we all need to watch this classic clip from good old Hurricane Bawbag

Tomorrow looks like it will be quite a day for us weather enthusiasts, enjoy everyone and stay safe, who knows, you might gain a new piece of garden furniture or even a trampoline! 

 

 

I've securely lashed the trampoline to the decking to prevent this (hopefully). My garden backs on to a main road, so I worry about it taking flight and causing an accident!

 

[Dami]

Next door has a trampoline. She won't care. I expect she won't even realise its gone.

[BurntFishTrousers]

30 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To my knowledge the warnings are not just an objective look at the worst weather, but to an extent also the impact level and likelihood of the event. I think where the SE especially differs is its not as used to such an event, so this will have a higher impact down there (especially given higher population density as well) whilst Scotland does tend to get these more often, so the threshold for an event that requires amber level of impact may just be a little higher as well, as well as obviously some model uncertainty further north depending on the exact location of the core of the LP.

I remember similar things being mentioned during snow events that got a yellow warning in the southeast despite it being relatively minor, the explanation being it will have a bigger impact than a similar even would have if it was elsewhere.

4.2M population in the central belt of Scotland. 

[BurntFishTrousers]

18 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Hurricane what?

Edit: Ahhhh I've never heard someone call it that before 

Got its own Wikipedia entry !