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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3


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15 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Local forecasts have it from 53 max to 66 max from Met office to Beeb. You spend your monies and make your choice.

53 max looks way too low looking at the models. Then again, app forecasts are notoriously out of line in extreme events like this.

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A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.  

You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow 

Even doors are getting windy ?  

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Ukv dont look to bad to be fair!!if you go according to the ukv you looking at winds maxing out at between 56 and 60 mph across central england compared to the 70 75 from other models!!you wouldnt think that warrants a orange warning for the whole of england!!western coasts of england and southern England is a different story that defo warrants a orange warning maybe!!ive seen higher gusts before and there has been no Orange warning issued!

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It's already getting blustery, though I'm in a bit of an elevated position in the Jewellery Quarter. Must admit I am going to be nervous about the workshop during Sunday- it's an old Victorian building, mostly west facing, and I already have one sash window that's been leaking. I definitely think next door's hanging sign will be off down the street!

GFS seems to be predicting snow showers in the aftermath of this storm- is that an outlier?

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9 minutes ago, Hirudine said:

 

GFS seems to be predicting snow showers in the aftermath of this storm- is that an outlier?

After a big storm yes snow showers are likely all the cold air coming sweeping in much more rapidly as what happened on february 13th 2014.

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44 minutes ago, andy989 said:

I live in snowdonia, in a village nearly 1000ft above sea level, with an open view over to the irish sea. Yes we are accustomed to very high winds, snow, heavy rain, and yes our buildings are built with this in mind vs low lying towns and cities inland. Our roofs are built to “high wind area” codes. We do often get 70-80mph gusts in winter without loosing any roof slates.

However, if lowland areas are forecast 70mph+ then I reckon we at elevated positions are in for a loud night indeed.  BBC doesnt have my vilage bellow 70mph+ into 85mph for 24 hours.  24 hours is a very long time to be above 70mph. I suspect we will have 90mph+ gusts during peak. I will keep you posted. 

I suspect you are right to expect gusts over 85mph.  Snowdonia often records some of the highest wind gusts in these conditions.  At only 450ft asl in the Preselis we don't usually get such violent winds here but we are much more exposed than the valley bottoms.  I assume the predicted maximum gusts for the area are given at sea level so it would be no surprise if we experience winds 5-10mph above the forecast allowing for altitude and our exposed location.  I have no doubt that it will sound like the roof is coming off tomorrow and that will be bad enough!  Good luck!

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2 hours ago, Ross90 said:

The one a month later brought higher winds where i am, 90-95 mph although it only lasted about 40 minutes compared to 7/8 hrs of the previous one.

 

I suppose it depends how used to strong winds you are but i do think it can be exaggerated in areas that don't often get them.70 mph through populated areas for example won't cause widespread damage, it might damage a few roofs and bring the odd tree down which could cause transport problems but it's not as chaotic as some are suggesting.

I had to laugh at the 10pm news last night on ITV when the reporter said that Ciara was going to be the worst storm to hit the UK since the St Judes day storm, I thought....where have you been hiding?!

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ARPEGE 6z consistent with previous runs, peak gusts into 80s quite widely.

Max gusts through to end Sunday:

image.thumb.jpg.5434a7f39b046235be766ea0aed4261a.jpg

The worrying bit for me is not so much the mountains e.g. in Wales, but the triangle starting from Bristol running northeast through to east through the home counties, this has been consistently signalled on this model.  

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Extra RAIN amber for Scottish Borders. "Heavy and persistent rainfall has been forecast for Saturday night and Sunday in this area, which will lead to a risk of flooding from rivers and surface water from late on Saturday and into Sunday" SEPA 

In addition to other yellow rain warnings and flood warnings for SW Scotland and two for England

feb08amberraintw.png

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1 minute ago, Freeze said:

Should be a very wild  walk along the shoreham coastline tomorrow! 80mph +

Warnings are issued for reasons, ignoring, well what can you say really. Don't know about your shoreline but ours can be dangerous in these situations, so rather than being a hero, I'll watch the webcams...

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3 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

New amber warning but still waiting for the amber wind to be extended into Scotland, been hinted at already on tv a few times 

Doubt it unless it's around coasts, unless the forecasts are pretty much all wrong with the positioning of the low Scotland won't get gusts over 60 mph inland.

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14 minutes ago, rossco89 said:

I had to laugh at the 10pm news last night on ITV when the reporter said that Ciara was going to be the worst storm to hit the UK since the St Judes day storm, I thought....where have you been hiding?!

Yikes! Don't mention the St. Judes one. We flew back from from France in that and didn't get where we wanted to go!

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8 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Doubt it unless it's around coasts, unless the forecasts are pretty much all wrong with the positioning of the low Scotland won't get gusts over 60 mph inland.

BBC have an area of 85mph winds into the central belt around 15:00.

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8 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Warnings are issued for reasons, ignoring, well what can you say really. Don't know about your shoreline but ours can be dangerous in these situations, so rather than being a hero, I'll watch the webcams...

I’m not going to be a fool just pop to the beach to experience it for say 10 mins, well away from the water obviously, away from possible falling objects, I’m a fan of severe gales 

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3 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

BBC have an area of 85mph winds into the central belt around 15:00.

I'm not seeing that anywhere, i'm right in the middle of the central belt and the highest the bbc goes is 62mph, Glasgow doesn't get higher than 57 and the met have it more in the low 50s.Maybe they're expecting a sting jet which would explain the big jump...

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