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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

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7 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Quick canvass of opinions. Been keeping an eye on things from the viewpoint of kids football matches due to take place tomorrow. Given the forecast and Amber warning, should we be expecting parents to drive kids to games to played in a howling gale? To be common sense would say call the games off, but our League secretary is more of a "it's only a bit of wind, it won't hurt them" kind of guy!

 

 

My league just called off all games for tomorrow (Chelmsford, Essex area)

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Just now, Geordiesnow said:

An 85mph gust is an 85mph gust, its irrelevant whether people are used to it or not, people need to be made aware that with those gusts there is a danger to life. As the forecast alludes though, it won't be those type of gusts all day, more Sunday evening time really. 

Bee interesting too see what gusts we will reach though, I suspect the risk of 80mph winds will be for a limited time rather than an all day event. The 50 to 60mph winds might be quite prolonged however. 

But the warnings are for "disruption" and "danger to life". Farmers, well-prepared walkers, outside workers up there will be well used to such conditions, anyone flying should check the weather before doing so anyway. If there's nothing much flying about and there's not many people to affect then giving a red warning based on a southerners opinion of what adverse conditions are (and I'm a Londoner) will make future red warnings meaningless. Because they get far worse up in Scotland than we do.  Yes people need to be aware, but if they're not checking the forecast in every case before undertaking outdoor activities, then they won't see the warnings anyway.  

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Just now, Wivenswold said:

But the warnings are for "disruption" and "danger to life". Farmers, well-prepared walkers, outside workers up there will be well used to such conditions, anyone flying should check the weather before doing so anyway. If there's nothing much flying about and there's not many people to affect then giving a red warning based on a southerners opinion of what adverse conditions are (and I'm a Londoner) will make future red warnings meaningless. Because they get far worse up in Scotland than we do.  Yes people need to be aware, but if they're not checking the forecast in every case before undertaking outdoor activities, then they won't see the warnings anyway.  

Haha. Oh yes because the boarders only have a few sheep and maybe 5 trees and the odd farmer too. Population estimated 30 maybe 40 people

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16 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

But the warnings are for "disruption" and "danger to life". Farmers, well-prepared walkers, outside workers up there will be well used to such conditions, anyone flying should check the weather before doing so anyway. If there's nothing much flying about and there's not many people to affect then giving a red warning based on a southerners opinion of what adverse conditions are (and I'm a Londoner) will make future red warnings meaningless. Because they get far worse up in Scotland than we do.  Yes people need to be aware, but if they're not checking the forecast in every case before undertaking outdoor activities, then they won't see the warnings anyway.  

People often underestimate just how strong winds are, even a solid 60-65mph gust can be intense, espeically if it occurs multiple of times and there is a wind shift associated with it, it will take trees down for sure. I'm not super far from the coast, so until the winds turn more westerly, suspect it might be a little rough. ECM showing 70mph gusts and quite sustained period of 60mph+ gusts.

I'm fully expecting my fence to come down a 2nd time (the Jan storm took it down before) and I'm expecting my journey to work (along lots of country lanes) to be greatly extended due to trees coming down.

Edited by kold weather
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I remember the st jude day storm only had peak winds lasting about half an hour and that caused extensive damage across the south, that was the last amber warning for our region although with winds forecast were slightly higher 

 

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29 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Quick canvass of opinions. Been keeping an eye on things from the viewpoint of kids football matches due to take place tomorrow. Given the forecast and Amber warning, should we be expecting parents to drive kids to games to played in a howling gale? To be common sense would say call the games off, but our League secretary is more of a "it's only a bit of wind, it won't hurt them" kind of guy!

 

 

I would call the games off. There will likely be travel disruption and I bet you will end up with teams being short of players anyway because they can't get there anyway.

Besides, do you really want kids playing and parents standing around spectating in 50mph+ gusts with possibly flying debris from trees/buildings.

And depending on the orientation of the pitches you might end up seeing goals scored like this...not exactly fun conditions for playing football!

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

December 7th 2011 - first ever red warning for wind in the UK issued by the Met Office.

Hurricane Bawbag.

A271ABAC-4BCF-4E13-B9B8-249EE2821F50.thumb.png.931c4faa1556d5ad20c79f9eca5330c8.png7D4C92ED-7C6B-4C10-BD9A-12FF7C270AE5.thumb.png.f1ea70074a8aae5a777d16290444dea1.png
 

If you've been in the Scotland thread recently and we've seemed grumpy, that's because pretty much all windstorms since fail to live up to this.

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37 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

There won't be much disruption in the Borders region of Scotland if they get 85 mph gusts. It's a fairly regular event so homes, walls and even trees and wildlife are used to it. Very rural area away from the coasts too. Likewise the far west and Wales. 85mph in London is knocking on a red warning. 

Ummm it’s not all barren hills and sheep in Wales you know.  Large conurbations, rail, road links, as well as us bloody hobbits in the boondocks.

Edited by snefnug
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Just now, ManiaMuse said:

I would call the games off. There will likely be travel disruption and I bet you will end up with teams being short of players anyway because they can't get there anyway.

Besides, do you really want kids playing and parents standing around spectating in 50mph+ gusts with possibly flying debris from trees/buildings.

And depending on the orientation of the pitches you might end up seeing goals scored like this...not exactly fun conditions for playing football!

 

Haha! I think our goalie would have a total meltdown if that happened to him (he's a 'keeper, so he obviously crazy anyway)

 

I think it is crazy to even contemplate playing

As you say, aside from the risks of actually getting there, there is no point in making kids run around trying to play a match in those conditions.

Unfortunately the guy who runs the league is a total weeble!

 

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36 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Quick canvass of opinions. Been keeping an eye on things from the viewpoint of kids football matches due to take place tomorrow. Given the forecast and Amber warning, should we be expecting parents to drive kids to games to played in a howling gale? To be common sense would say call the games off, but our League secretary is more of a "it's only a bit of wind, it won't hurt them" kind of guy!

 

 

Imbain a similar, " it will only be a bit of wind, or a bit of a breeze - see you tomorrow"

So tomorrows plans are as follows :

 set of at 9am, go to the house and help permanently fix a wifi antenna(ladders to the roof etc) go to the barn on the hilltop behind, (nothing but fields in between) and permanently fix second antenna, plus fix a leak in the roof.

 walk about 4 miles through fields and woods to a pub for lunch, walk back check the internet is working in the barn, and the wifi thing is aligned and working..

 

Apparently I'm worrying to much as this so called storm won't amount to anything but a bit of a breeze.

 

 

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I'd keep quiet but keep your wits about you so you and your colleagues are safe.

 

If indeed it's too windy, the i told you so feeling will be awesome.

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Already some decent gusts into W.Scotland and western portions of the island of Ireland at the moment, highest report is 64mph. Winds should ease a touch soon before the big pulse starts to move in tonight and we start to see the 70mph+ recordings begin.

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57 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Quick canvass of opinions. Been keeping an eye on things from the viewpoint of kids football matches due to take place tomorrow. Given the forecast and Amber warning, should we be expecting parents to drive kids to games to played in a howling gale? To be common sense would say call the games off, but our League secretary is more of a "it's only a bit of wind, it won't hurt them" kind of guy!

 

 

Well I'm not letting my ex drive our son back to uni in Kent tomorrow (we are in Essex and he came home for the weekend). My son can watch his Monday morning lecture online anyway, they can go back in the afternoon.
 

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15 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

Well I'm not letting my ex drive our son back to uni in Kent tomorrow (we are in Essex and he came home for the weekend). My son can watch his Monday morning lecture online anyway, they can go back in the afternoon.
 

My daughter plays rugby, which is hardly ever cancelled due to the weather but tomorrow's match has been cancelled.

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37 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

If you've been in the Scotland thread recently and we've seemed grumpy, that's because pretty much all windstorms since fail to live up to this.

The one a month later brought higher winds where i am, 90-95 mph although it only lasted about 40 minutes compared to 7/8 hrs of the previous one.

 

I suppose it depends how used to strong winds you are but i do think it can be exaggerated in areas that don't often get them.70 mph through populated areas for example won't cause widespread damage, it might damage a few roofs and bring the odd tree down which could cause transport problems but it's not as chaotic as some are suggesting.

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17 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:

Well I'm not letting my ex drive our son back to uni in Kent tomorrow (we are in Essex and he came home for the weekend). My son can watch his Monday morning lecture online anyway, they can go back in the afternoon.
 

Yeah, I think that is sensible.

Luckily, I don't really have to go anywhere tomorrow! 

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It's going to interesting what the highest gust will be tomorrow here in East Yorkshire. The models are going from 56mph (ICON) to 73mph (ECM) gusts. I can't recall anything above 56mph at Leconfield weather station (North of Beverley). I'm not sure if we are sheltered by the Yorkshire Wolds here or not as the highest point west/south-west of me is only ~500ft high but anything over 60mph would be very extreme. 

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Bloody hell, if the BBC is anything to go by, 7 hours of up to 70mph gusts for myself. 

2020-02-08_14-30-04.png

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UKV wind gusts at 1pm tomorrow:

viewimage.thumb.png.7f4bc0cd4df360f8ac8e5d7c593b6ba0.png

A trip to Kimmeridge is in order tomorrow!

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Bbc are usually too high, met are usually too low.If there's a big gap in their wind speeds it'll usually be somewhere in between.

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9 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Bbc are usually too high, met are usually too low.If there's a big gap in their wind speeds it'll usually be somewhere in between.

Usually the other way for me. This is the one scenario they are higher. The BBC does seem to follow the model outputs more closely. I expect high 60's and low 70's so its probably not COMPLETELY off.

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Jet stream off the scale tomorrow across S / SW Ireland 958395840_nmm_uk1-9-33-0(1).thumb.png.8751b28e285312f3fdece4e550e26516.png  also possibility of 80-90 + knot convective gusts gfs_gusts_eur30.thumb.png.91b7337324847b59a6386b3bd0e2d1e1.pnggfs_gusts_eur33.thumb.png.bf222a85abba3fadb0d394d3a4078aba.png

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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I live in snowdonia, in a village nearly 1000ft above sea level, with an open view over to the irish sea. Yes we are accustomed to very high winds, snow, heavy rain, and yes our buildings are built with this in mind vs low lying towns and cities inland. Our roofs are built to “high wind area” codes. We do often get 70-80mph gusts in winter without loosing any roof slates.

However, if lowland areas are forecast 70mph+ then I reckon we at elevated positions are in for a loud night indeed.  BBC doesnt have my vilage bellow 70mph+ into 85mph for 24 hours.  24 hours is a very long time to be above 70mph. I suspect we will have 90mph+ gusts during peak. I will keep you posted. 

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Local forecasts have it from 53 max to 66 max from Met office to Beeb. You spend your monies and make your choice.

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