Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[Dbarb]

Very ominous wording for the squall lines.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Flood updates - Floodline Scotland - Be prepared for flooding

FLOODLINESCOTLAND.ORG.UK

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Think ahead and be prepard for flooding. Be prepared for flooding and protect the things most valuable to you.

 

[Mapantz]

The UKV 18Z looks pretty interesting with regards to precip tomorrow.

 

[ThundersnowDays]

Wind starting to pick up here

[Zak M]

Latest update:

[cheese]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV 18Z looks pretty interesting with regards to precip tomorrow.

 

Yeah, for here the squall could be the most noteworthy thing, and a level 2 Estofex warning in winter must be very unusual.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The UKV 18Z looks pretty interesting with regards to precip tomorrow.

 

I can see the reasoning behind the estofex level 2 with ppn charts looking like that.. Highly likely this will mix down some very damaging gusts as the squalls pass through.. Could really push up the wind strength for short periods.. 

[kold weather]

I was thinking that on some decent convection the 925mbs winds often give a good indication of the gusts at the surface, in the most intense convection you can even go to 850hpa for a decent indication as well...if that is anything to go by we may see a few places get some very large gusts (850hpa winds knocking on the door of 100mph), will be interesting to see if any weather station catches it.

[Love Snow]

Winds starting to pick up here in Leeds! House located on a windy spot aswell so it’s gonna be a interesting 24 hours!

Edited February 8, 2020 by Love Snow

[BurntFishTrousers]

Very latest NOAA pass shows no major change in formation. That'll come in the hours ahead and will finally nail down where the winds will be worse. Remember nobody, not even senior forecasters, know exactly the likely path once it starts to "swirl". It might 100 miles north or south of forecast. Next 6 hours will be crucial. 

[Ross90]

35 minutes ago, matty40s said:

From the satellite views and models, Ciara still isnt anywhere near, this is the first system and will be until very early morning. The earlier squall lines and awful weather at Murrayfield are not Ciara.

Look at Burntfishytrousers NASA shots, it has hardly started to fold in yet, the jet stream is driving it at silly speeds.

I would suggest that some of the high res models are seeing some kind of sting jet type winds around the South of the UK(and Northern France/Channel Islands), hence the startling wind speeds being projected. The length of time these will be experienced is something we are quite un-used to in this country, and maybe, unable to deal with!!!

 

Funnily enough, son in law has just disagreed with me about what's coming...looking at his phones front screen he said.

"doesn't seem too bad, bit gusty up to 40mph, and a bit of rain, should clear up afternoon". I think he has Siri.

 

Would a sting jet not usually occur closer to the centre of the storm, so further northwest than the south coast?

[kold weather]

Still some decent uncertainty looking through the ECM ensembles, most are broadly in agreement with the MetO warning, but there are some runs that are going a little lower, and a few runs going much higher (one or two chuck 85mph over large swathes of the Midlands/South, including one with 100mph near Brighton!) so whilst this looks like a strong windstorm, still an outside risk of something more exceptional.

[Gary2701]

All gone very quiet here in Greater Manchester.  The first mini storm has gone through.  Just waiting for the main event which I guess will start at around 1am Sunday. 

[Nick F]

Some extreme deep layer and low level shear values forecast tomorrow afternoon ahead and along cold front sliding SE, this suggests potential, despite weak CAPE, for development of bow echoes or Line Echo Wave Patterns (LEWP) in a squall line in association with the cold front, with potential for some rotating mesocyclones to develop that could produce a tornado, or at least enhancing damaging wind gusts.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Nick F

[matty40s]

16 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Highly likely this will mix down some very damaging gusts as the squalls pass through.. Could really push up the wind strength for short periods.. 

The predicted winds are 70mph average, pushing up from that is SERIOUS

[ChezWeather]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by ChezWeather

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, mbrothers said:

Is this real or a spoof ? 

It’s real! It’s okay they’re staying in an eco-lodge - it’s some ppl volunteering and I was worried they might not realise the severity of the weather  

[matty40s]

12 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Would a sting jet not usually occur closer to the centre of the storm, so further northwest than the south coast?

We are entering a new phase of weather forecasting where "usually", doesnt always fit any more

Looking at the jet path, and the likely path of Ciara, the cold front coupled to the dropping pressure, anything is likely, which some of the forecasts seem to hint at.

[Zak M]

4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

 

You don't see that often in February!

[Adzyy]

In a static caravan by the sea in Porthmadog, Wales... gotta say it’s pretty wild out there now. Caravan is shaking a fair bit, feels like I’m on a boat lol

[Thunder and Lightning]

This storm will never stop with the surprises. Threat of Strong tornadoes now!!

[mbrothers]

14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s real! It’s okay they’re staying in an eco-lodge - it’s some ppl volunteering and I was worried they might not realise the severity of the weather  

Sorry I wasn’t taking the p . Good to hear all ok !

[Robbie Garrett]

The Aviation Update is an interesting one.

Deep low pressure (central pressure 936mb) centred just to the N of the British Isles, bringing SW gales to NW Europe. Sustained winds for the British Isles, northern France, Benelux, Denmark, northern and western Germany 25-30KT. Gusts 45-60KT inland. Peak winds 12-18Z across the UK and in the evening over N mainland Europe. The winds will ease during the early hours of Monday as the low transfers eastward to central Scandinavia. All airports in these areas are likely to be impacted by strong gusty winds conditions with possible local heavy rain an CB activity

WINDS >30 KNOTS

• EHAM 13-20Z sustained 210-220deg 30-32KT. Gusts 55-60KT.
• EBBR 15-19Z sustained 210 30KT. Gusts 45-50KT.
• EGLL 11-15Z mean sustained 27-28KT 220 deg. Gusts 40-50KT.
• EGKK 12-17Z mean sustained 27-30KT 220 deg. Gusts 40-50KT.
• EGLC 12-17Z mean sustained 26-27KT 210 deg. Gusts 35-40KT.
• LFPG 17-20Z mean sustained 26-27KT 210 deg. Gusts 35-42KT.
• EDDL 19-21Z mean sustained 26-28KT 210 deg. Gusts 35-45KT.

3000 FT WINDS AND WIND SHEAR >30 KNOTS

• EDDF: 210 30-35KT from 05Z, 190 40KT from 12Z, 190-200 55-60KT from 17Z, 200 65KT from 22Z. Shear >30Kt apart from 11-14Z.
• EGLL: 200-210 40-45KT 00-05Z becoming 60Kt from 06Z and 70 KT from 12Z. Becoming 230 deg 60 KT from 17Z, 240-250deg 50KT from 21Z. Shear >30KT throughout, 45-50KT around 13-15Z.
• LFPG: 200-210 30-35KT 00-03Z becoming 40KT by 06Z. 200 50-55KT from 09Z Becoming 210 deg 60 KT from 17Z, 230deg 60-66KT from 21Z. Shear >30KT from 04Z.
• EHAM: 200-210 40-50KT, 60KT from 12Z. 75KT from 18Z. Becoming 230deg 60KT from 21Z. Shear >30KT throughout, 45-50KT

Heathrow & Gatwick looks set to have the worst of the winds. With 65KT gusts between 0915/0918.   Just shy of 75mph

 

LGW

TAF EGKK 081656Z 0818/0924 19010KT 9999 FEW030 TEMPO 0819/0821 19015G25KT BECMG 0821/0824 20018G28KT BECMG 0904/0907 21028G38KT TEMPO 0904/0915 7000 -RA BKN012 TEMPO 0907/0915 22032G48KT PROB30 TEMPO 0910/0915 22040G60KT 4000 RA BKN007 BECMG 0915/0918 24026G40KT TEMPO 0915/0918 3000 +SHRA BKN014CB PROB30 TEMPO 0915/0918 24035G65KT BECMG 0918/0921 25018G30KT PROB40 TEMPO 0918/0924 3000 +SHRA BKN020CB PROB30 TEMPO 0921/0924 25025G45KT=

LHR

TAF EGLL 081659Z 0818/0924 20010KT 9999 FEW025 PROB40 TEMPO 0818/0821 19015G25KT BECMG 0821/0824 19020G30KT TEMPO 0902/0909 7000 -RA BKN012 BECMG 0906/0909 20025G42KT TEMPO 0909/0918 21030G55KT TEMPO 0909/0915 4000 RA BKN009 TEMPO 0915/0924 3000 +SHRA BKN014CB PROB30 TEMPO 0915/0919 23035G65KT BECMG 0919/0922 24020G35KT=

 

Yeah in an airplane tomorrow? It's a no from me...

 

A lot of people seem to be downplaying this storm here in London.  But I guess the amber warning is warranted as it effects the greatest population areas.

[markw2680]

Tbh after this crap winter it’s good to have something to talk about even though it could potentially be dangerous 

[Ian Ballinger]

1 minute ago, Adzyy said:

In a static caravan by the sea in Porthmadog, Wales... gotta say it’s pretty wild out there now. Caravan is shaking a fair bit, feels like I’m on a boat lol

I'm in my house in Porthmadog, feel sorry for you