Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[Zak M]

19 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

In times like this i think we all need to watch this classic clip from good old Hurricane Bawbag

Tomorrow looks like it will be quite a day for us weather enthusiasts, enjoy everyone and stay safe, who knows, you might gain a new piece of garden furniture or even a trampoline! 

 

 

Hahahaha. This reminds me of what happened on the 25th January 2014 here. A thunderstorm bought some incredibly strong winds and blew my trampoline through my next door neighbours fence. They were baffled when they saw it! Lol

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Hi all,

just looking for some advice... OH is down in Salisbury tonight in the woods doing some volunteering and I think they are there tomorrow until about 4pm.

Seeing suggestions of a number of fractured squall lines for that area and mention of brief but strong tornadoes possible (along with the more general wind and rain that is expected).

Should I suggest to her/them that they head back tonight or early tomo before Ciara hits, or will it probably be ok?

Edited February 8, 2020 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Mapantz]

Current radar. You can make out a small LEWP running from NI in to Scotland.

Current winds here are 14/28mph.

[BurntFishTrousers]

Current satellite. Another one to follow. 

[BurntFishTrousers]

A near hurricane wind strength around the Thames !

[Zak M]

Anyone know if there is a chance of some lightning strikes within some of the squalls of Storm Ciara tomorrow?

[Man With Beard]

Models continue to fluctuate on where the worst of the wind will be tomorrow. Euro4 12Z shifted the worst winds to the N Devon coast (90mph ish), with inland areas perhaps more in the 60-70 category. The ECM 12Z, on the other hand, increases the area in the mid 70s, which includes a lot of England / Wales, plenty of localized 80mph spots and 95mph over Exmoor - not a good day to be flying a kite on a Devon hill! 

[Jo Farrow]

6 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

A near hurricane wind strength around the Thames !

DOVER too

[Zak M]

8 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

A near hurricane wind strength around the Thames !

The wind gusts probably aren't at their peak too!

[fazzafarrand]

21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Current radar. You can make out a small LEWP running from NI in to Scotland.

Current winds here are 14/28mph.

Sorry LEWP?

[Jo Farrow]

Just now, Zak M said:

The wind gusts probably aren't at their peak too!

It's for next 20 hours from Shipping Forecast https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/shipping-forecast

 

 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, fazzafarrand said:

Sorry LEWP?

Line echo wave pattern

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE 12z very much in line with previous runs, here highest gusts up to T27:

The main point being from this run, is that the peak is passed by this time over all the country, T27 which is 3pm UK time. 

[Eskimo]

Already gusting over 40mph here in Birmingham. I can hear the satellite aerial on the roof shaking above my room. 

Edited February 8, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[ancientsolar]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ARPEGE 12z very much in line with previous runs, here highest gusts up to T27:

The main point being from this run, is that the peak is passed by this time over all the country, T27 which is 3pm UK time. 

looks like quite a swathe of 80s on that map with some isolated up to 90mph 

~ Does this include the effect of wind tunnels in the Welsh Valleys or in the Cities ?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Currently state of play in the Atlantic.. Interacting with the jet now so watch the central pressure bomb over the next 12 hours or so 

[Hurricane Debby]

This was just posted on the Scorland thread from a guy on the Scottish Borders 

 

Hellish up here Shuggee, I've closed the curtains and the blinds for the first time ever -  I hate to feel claustrophobic and always leave curtains open but tonight it's unbearable.

[Midlander]

Saw this on Twitter. Really! Over 100MPH in the Isle of Wight?  Or is the BBC Weather app up to something...

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by AppleUK 123

[Guest]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Saw this on Twitter. Really! Over 100MPH in the Isle of Wight?  Or is the BBC Weather app up to something...

Twitter

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

 

I've seen that, too 

Many folk questioning those figures naturally! It ties in with the 88mph from the BBC for Southampton as well. I can't explain it, I mean I think it is some kind of error, but what model do they use for their app forecasts?

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Saw this on Twitter. Really! Over 100MPH in the Isle of Wight?  Or is the BBC Weather app up to something...

Twitter

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

 

Probably over the top. Although, St Catherines point/Needles have had some very high rogue gusts in the past.

[Sentinel]

8.30pm down here in Essex on Southend seafront and it's still average for this time of year. The wind hasn't picked up, no black clouds in the sky but....y'know as a weather fan, I can just tell that something is about to happen.

[Midlander]

Just now, Onding said:

I've seen that, too 

Many folk questioning those figures naturally! It ties in with the 88mph from the BBC for Southampton as well. I can't explain it, I mean I think it is some kind of error, but what model do they use for their app forecasts?

Yeah it is rather strange, I thought it was in KPH at first, but no it was MPH

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

looks like quite a swathe of 80s on that map with some isolated up to 90mph 

~ Does this include the effect of wind tunnels in the Welsh Valleys or in the Cities ?

The honest answer is I'm not sure, the higher the resolution the more such effects would be included, but ARPEGE is a global model so it might be suspect on these factors?  In the run up to this event it has also suggested wind speeds a little higher than some of the other models, we will find out which was right only afterwards of course!

[Thunder and Lightning]

5 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Saw this on Twitter. Really! Over 100MPH in the Isle of Wight?  Or is the BBC Weather app up to something...

 

Yep. Definitely feels like BBC know something we don't.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Should I tell the guys in the Wiltshire forests to cut and run? They are planning to stay over tonight but I don’t know what sort of shelter they are in. Bit worried