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Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3


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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell

Well the met forecast is already way off for me, current forecast 40 mph gusts and heavy rain shower... current weather light breeze and clear skies.

Edited by Ross90
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

Well the met forecast is already way off for me, current forecast 40 mph gusts and heavy rain shower... current weather light breeze and clear skies.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Wind gusts will always vary between different weather models some tend to drastically underestimate them and others overestimate them. The wind direction can also make a big difference I know I'm sheltered from winds coming from the South I've had gusts over 60mph forecast from that direction and hardly a breeze outside but if I drive 5 minutes away the wind will suddenly pick straight up. Last year I tested which models predicted the gusts the best for a storm I used a number of locations and Met Office stations to record the results to ensure high accuracy. Aperge came out as the overall best followed by the ECM and yes even BBC Weather managed to do well. Other models that did decent were FMI and the GFS. The Met Office underestimated the wind speed on average across all locations by nearly 10mph off the actual highest recorded gust while Icon tended to overestimated the gusts.

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Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warwickshire
  • Location: Rugby, Warwickshire

Currently in a caravan at a well known holiday park branch in Porthmadog, Wales and already the van is shaking like crazy! 
 

Gotta say I’m very worried for this weekend’s events. 

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Posted
  • Location: Very South London
  • Location: Very South London

AROME has finally come into view for Sunday. Somewhat general agreement with other models, perhaps a little less winds in some places, but 60-65mph almost everywhere at some point. Plenty of 70mph spots too. The AROME might also give an indication of why there are Amber warnings in the SE and nowhere else (yet). Towards the very end of the run, a sort of 2nd wave of winds moves into the SE more or less within the warning area. Perhaps this extra time of sustained winds is what tilted the scales in the SE for the warning? May have been noticed in other models that the Met has. I still expect a widening of the warning area though.

Edited by Porto
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Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
7 hours ago, stripeyfox said:

Wind like this worries me. Many years ago (2003/4 I think), I was walking to a football match in Leicester (v Everton) on a very windy afternoon and came across the aftermath of a terrible incident where a large piece of wood had blown across the road in the storm and killed a man on his way to the game. The gentleman, an Everton supporter, was killed more or less instantly I believe. Such a tragic, random event.

So, stay safe everyone.

 

EDIT : found the link

spacer.png
WWW.LIVERPOOLECHO.CO.UK

THE family of an Everton fan killed by flying debris near Leicester's Walkers Stadium today paid tribute to a "real gentleman" who lived for football.

 

 

 

Yes.. You've summed up my worries exactly.  Flying debris can be very dangerous indeed and sadly can, and does kill. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London

The Arpege, ECMWF, and GFS seem to be the main candidates for the strongest wind at the moment. To be honest I'm surprised that the models are not showing higher gusts for W Scotland considering the Isobars there. Living in North London I rarely get gusts over 45mph and this is an excitement for me considering gusts are being forecasted by multiple models of at least 65mph, as well as big weather sites on around 60. Still think that the MO really need to check the situation and upgrade the whole wind side of the storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m

Quite surprised to see the wind speeds increased 24 hours out its normally the other way round. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Metoffice mentioning just 'gales' in their text forecast for the Midlands tomorrow. That suggests 50-60mph to me. 

Some models showing 70-80mph across the Midlands though. 

Guess we'll see what happens with the warnings later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

I remain wary about giving warnings to family and friends about severe weather. To often I have been laughed at because of what has been hyped on here only to find it has gone north, south or not occurred at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Maximum wind gust through to end Sunday on ARPEGE:

image.thumb.jpg.bdce6f944afed6f4bb0711d941f99214.jpg

Some consistency from this model with gusts up to 80 mph quite widely.

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Posted
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Maximum wind gust through to end Sunday on ARPEGE:

image.thumb.jpg.bdce6f944afed6f4bb0711d941f99214.jpg

Some consistency from this model with gusts up to 80 mph quite widely.

hold on to your hats chaps!

Lets see what the MetOffice do after they've finished their coffee and bagels and get round to updating the warnings (or not)

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT

I'm a lurker and don't post often.  BUT when is this storm due to start biting down in the South East.  I ask because I'm concerned if I need to make preps today.  Thanks all x

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

I'm a lurker and don't post often.  BUT when is this storm due to start biting down in the South East.  I ask because I'm concerned if I need to make preps today.  Thanks all x

I would say the winds will start to gradually increase by ~04:00 on Sunday morning. Hope this helps! 

Edited by LightningLover
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Posted
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
  • Weather Preferences: I like a bit of weather
  • Location: IN THE FOOT HILLS AND DENSELY FORESTED AREAS OF TUNBRIDGE WELLS IN KENT
1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

I would say the winds will start to gradually increase by ~04:00 on Sunday morning. Hope this helps! 

Thank you...  It just gives me an idea.  I shall make sure everything is charged up.  And candles to hand x

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

I'm a lurker and don't post often.  BUT when is this storm due to start biting down in the South East.  I ask because I'm concerned if I need to make preps today.  Thanks all x

I would just tie down or bring inside anything that could be liable to fly off! Otherwise, not a lot you can do...

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Posted
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
  • Location: Melton Mowbray
18 minutes ago, Sidsnake said:

Thank you...  It just gives me an idea.  I shall make sure everything is charged up.  And candles to hand x

Don't forget to stock up on gin! 

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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl

via predictwind.com Sunday for North Cornwall coast.

 

db0902.png

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