Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[Nick L]

16 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Yes it makes absolute operational and safety sense. Though for a laugh, do have a look through Train Companies' Twitter feeds to get a sense of the national feeling of self importance "We can send a rocket to the moon but one bit of wind and all the trains are cancelled" and "I'm important and 15 mins late getting to York. It's a disgrace" and even "Rail Company cancelled all the trains and it's not even that windy where i live" -type comments. 

I'm sure they'd be whining even more if their train ploughed into a fallen tree at 100mph! 

[The4Seasons]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

ECMWF just rolling in has edged the winds back up across England and Wales for Sunday. Well into the 70s and hints of exceeding 80mph over inland parts of Wales, perhaps into parts of the Midlands too. This HAS to be an amber warning.

Hi Nick do you have a snap shot of the map of the wind speeds in this update? 

[Wivenswold]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'm sure they'd be whining even more if their train ploughed into a fallen tree at 100mph! 

You'd think that wouldn't you. I used to work in a busy London station. "There's no decent shops here, I should have gone to Romford on the bus instead, can I get a refund?" Remains my favourite.

[Josh Rubio]

With gusts of up to 70mph+ in densely populated areas, surely places with tall buildings will create a ‘funnel effect’, thus further increasing the wind speeds locally?

[Nick L]

Just now, The4Seasons said:

Hi Nick do you have a snap shot of the map of the wind speeds in this update? 

I'll try and put something together before I clock off at 7!

[The PIT]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'm sure they'd be whining even more if their train ploughed into a fallen tree at 100mph! 

Well they wouldn't because they'd be badly injured or dead.

Winds edged up for us on the GFS but the heavy rain spends more time to the north of us.

Local forecasts are all over the place. Beeb windy Met office just a normal windy day

[Ross90]

Tomorrow looks worse than Sunday in places, especially central Scotland and nw England.

[Nick L]

 

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, Essex Easterly said:

Here's our low about to leave the US east coast, already down to 980mb, right in line with the GFS forecast

Using the above and then picking up the East Coast of the USA  on visible satellite

East Central | United States Infrared Satellite | Satellite Maps | Weather Underground

WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM

 

[The4Seasons]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

 

Hmm that puts my area in one of the worst places. Thanks for posting the  chart Nick.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, The4Seasons said:

Hmm that puts my area in one of the worst places. Thanks for posting the  chart Nick.

No worries. The ECMWF can overegg winds by 5mph or so, but even taking that into account it's still potentially damaging on Sunday. The UKV gusts will be very interesting viewing tomorrow.

[Snowyowl9]

Severe gales from the S/SW and lashings of driving heavy rain its time for some excitement

[Nick F]

You look at the EC peak gust progs below for Sunday 15hrs and you'd think more than IoW, Hants, Sussex and Kent need an amber, that's like a big chunk of England and Wales with gusts in excess of 70 mph

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Nick F

[Nick L]

Just now, Nick F said:

You look at the EC peak gust progs below for Sunday and you'd think more than IoW, Hants, Sussex and Kent need an amber, that's like a big chunk of England and Wales with gusts in excess of 70 mph

 

Yep, this is the point I've been making all day. There is no logic behind only having that select area with the amber warning. I just cannot see the reasoning behind it.

[Wilxy]

Just now, Nick L said:

Yep, this is the point I've been making all day. There is no logic behind only having that select area with the amber warning. I just cannot see the reasoning behind it.

I expect the met office will expand their warning tomorrow to cover a much larger area!

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yep, this is the point I've been making all day. There is no logic behind only having that select area with the amber warning. I just cannot see the reasoning behind it.

We'll see how much they'll expand the amber tomorrow I guess, wouldn't make sense not to. But then some things the MO do re warnings don't always make sense. Remember the MO issuing an amber across parts of the SE for the potential of thunderstorms moving up from France back in October I think it was? Turned out just heavy rain for most the warning area and the models indicated as such well in advance, guess 'severe' thunderstorms not so easy to predict though.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Nick F

[stevofunnelcl]

i can confirm the trains from Glasgow to Oban are all cancelled on Sunday and at least the first half of Monday.

Reasons given on ScotRail website, was due to severe weather

Only a yellow warning, currently there. Surely, there is Amber incoming

[weirpig]

44 minutes ago, Nick L said:

 

70 plus here   that's must be over the top   

[philglossop]

Saltram estate National Trust park in Plymouth is closed from 5pm Saturday until Monday 8am. No access to people on foot or cycle or car. 

It's a woodland park they must be concerned with. 

Unheard of in my lifetime.

 

I'd expect Mount Edgcumbe in Cornwall to declare the same- they suffered in them Burns storm very badly.

 

I see the Winter 10k run in London is also cancelled.

[ciel]

5 hours ago, snefnug said:

Re amber warnings etc.  Is it to do with population density?  I only ask because when we had the March 2013 snow dump, our local farmers on Wale shropshire marches lost many lambs and sheep due to the intensity and depth of snow.  We were on a yellow warning. When Met Office contacted they said it was human population density that raised warning rate.  That went down well not...

 

5 hours ago, stripeyfox said:

You'd think so wouldn't you. I mean, a 60mph wind in the Outer Hebrides is probably "normal" for that population, wheras the same event in London would be a very different animal.

 

I don't know met office policy regarding warnings, but I would comment that a forecast damaging gale impacts as much on an individual in Lerwick as it does in London.

[The PIT]

Which is why I say the warning system isn't fit for the purpose.

[seb]

1 minute ago, ciel said:

 

I don't know met office policy regarding warnings, but I would comment that a forecast damaging gale impacts as much on an individual in Lerwick as it does in London.

One big difference is that an area which is exposed to 50 or 60mph winds several times each winter has far less trees which are likely to fall during 70-75mph winds when compared to areas that don’t normally expect what is considered a windy day in other areas.

On top of that, the SE is particularly bad at dealing with trees near train tracks, busy roads and power lines. 
 

The warnings take into consideration damage to rail, road and power infrastructure. The more damage is likely, the lower the threshold for higher warning levels.

Not that any of that excuses the extremely narrow/limited area of the current amber warning as the areas 100 miles north and west of the current warning area are not any different when it comes to impact on infrastructure.

 

[cheese]

19 minutes ago, ciel said:

 

I don't know met office policy regarding warnings, but I would comment that a forecast damaging gale impacts as much on an individual in Lerwick as it does in London.

Of course it does, but there considerably more individuals in London. There are congested roads, crowded railways, busy international airports. Have you ever been to London during rush hour? Now imagine 70+mph winds while millions of people are trying to get home in one of the world’s biggest cities?

I know we like to cry about London-centrism but it just makes sense in cases like this. Given current wind speed forecasts I’d expect an amber warning across much of England given England is very densely populated.

Edited February 7, 2020 by cheese

[stripeyfox]

16 minutes ago, ciel said:

 

I don't know met office policy regarding warnings, but I would comment that a forecast damaging gale impacts as much on an individual in Lerwick as it does in London.

I get your point, but I believe the Met Office considers "impact" in the warnings and that does vary from area to area. 60mph wind and rain in London is a batten down the hatches event, whereas in Lerwick it's "grab your trunks and head to the beach" weather! (well, almost) 

[Porto]

Honestly it feel like government related entities and infrastructure are paying attention more to the actual potential severity than what colour the warning is. Which is good. But as we've all said, it makes you think about why the damn warnings even exist if train companies etc are calling for cancellations and slower trains even when in a typically "tame" yellow warning. Of course it does seem like a damned if you do damned if you don't scenario for the Met... But picking the South East exclusively doesn't seem to line up with any models that we know them to typically use (and have access to).

The 12Z ECM I was surprised got even more windier, when ive been expecting general "downgrades" (even if small) as we come closer to the time. It suggested 78 MPH gusts right on the Greater London border near myself. While I don't expect it to get THAT high, this will absolutely be the worst storm since 2013 where we lost our fence, and had power flickers. And that was relatively short too. These winds are meant to be gusting at 60mph for many hours, above 50mph for almost a whole day. If they don't expand amber to at least the SW and Wales, then I don't understand the warnings existence.