Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[FetchCB]

10 minutes ago, seb said:

Looks like the MetO press release makes clear that more areas could receive amber and it also states that Ciara will be the strongest storm since 2013... just popped up as breaking news on the Sky News app.

Re the SE amber warning - clearly that must have access to more detailed date than us to warrant putting the area up to amber as early as this morning.

Met Office Impacts Explanation.

What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast

timing is important as well. I do recall the Met office justifying the issuing of a yellow over an amber as the event was due to happen overnight when most people will be indoors

[elfinpunk]

Yes, it is always a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" situation with overnight warnings. In a way no warning at all would be best as it stops people venturing out to corral an errant trampoline and getting flattened by several tons of oak tree, but then again some people need to know if they will be around and about overnight.

Edited February 7, 2020 by elfinpunk

[Porto]

The amber warning will absolutely be spread out further. Its mostly down to confidence at this point and 24 hours prior may just be enough for the scales to tilt. I live right on the edge of London, and the forecasts for the past 3-4 days have suggested anywhere between 65-70mph gusts. The fact that i'm not in the amber warning is strange, especially as this may be the strongest storm since 2013 here, but the edges usually chosen by the Met are perhaps a little arbitrary (aka I think they just chose the M25 as this kinda supposed magical wind barrier)

[Ross90]

It'd be easier if they just had set standards for each warning no matter where or when it occurs.For wind 50 - 65 mph = yellow, 65 - 80mph = amber etc...

[More Runs Needed]

Hope this helps

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Dkeane3

[Jo Farrow]

2 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It'd be easier if they just had set standards for each warning no matter where or when it occurs.For wind 50 - 65 mph = yellow, 65 - 80mph = amber etc...

That is more like Met Eireann's way of warning. The impact based warnings have been the Met Office's thing for a long time now. gusts of 60mph have less impact for the Western Isles on Sunday night than G60mph for London Monday morning. So don't warrant same warning level. 

For this event, it was okay with the yellow. The small Amber isn't easy to understand why there, even looking at the guidance of Impact Tables for winds. The Matrix just seems to be manipulated so that it stays in the colour wanted.

I vaguely remember that issuing an Amber kicked off processes with Councils and emergency response teams. I'm not sure the Amber is of much use to the public compared to a yellow. Both are about severe weather, but what is the difference? It just confuses, or lessens the perception of Yellow.  In the last storm, it ticked all of the amber criteria about damage and power/transport interruptions, no amber. It isn't clear       A red - fair dos, don't go out. 

[John88B]

7 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It'd be easier if they just had set standards for each warning no matter where or when it occurs.For wind 50 - 65 mph = yellow, 65 - 80mph = amber etc...

Totally agree. If the conditions are going to get dangerous, whether it's in London or a small village in the Scottish highlands, the people in those areas, regardless of population size, need to be made aware.

[stripeyfox]

4 minutes ago, John88B said:

Totally agree. If the conditions are going to get dangerous, whether it's in London or a small village in the Scottish highlands, the people in those areas, regardless of population size, need to be made aware.

yes, but then you'd get warnings every other day in the Highlands, thus diminishing the effect of the warning. So some regional variation regarding the impact is sensible, as Jo mentions in her post above

 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Here's our low about to leave the US east coast, already down to 980mb, right in line with the GFS forecast

[Jo Farrow]

I ticked off Storm Brendan's impacts which didn't get an Amber, named by Met Eireann and their Orange warning.

 

[weirpig]

I'm sure the met office will update tomorrow  latest  icon and arp  show  high winds all over the country  no difference to the amber warning  most of england  including inland reaching 70 +  very dangerous     wind affecting  very densely populated areas 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

ScotRail are concerned enough to have suspended a number of rail services on Sunday into Monday

 

[Jo Farrow]

SEPA have finally put something out as well about coastal flood risk . Met Eireann Orange warnings for wind with widespread Rain/Wind yellow

 

[jamesbhx]

35 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

I vaguely remember that issuing an Amber kicked off processes with Councils and emergency response teams. I'm not sure the Amber is of much use to the public compared to a yellow. Both are about severe weather, but what is the difference? It just confuses, or lessens the perception of Yellow.  In the last storm, it ticked all of the amber criteria about damage and power/transport interruptions, no amber. It isn't clear       A red - fair dos, don't go out. 

Correct. Amber and Red trigger certain processes with councils, blue light services, power companies, transport and other national infrastructure organisations and operators. Such things like cancelling leave, bringing people in on days off, moving equipment around or safeguarding sites etc. So such decisions are not taken lightly as there is a cost implication for these services when they do. For example, one of my previous employers would block book hotel rooms near to the workplace in case staff were unable to get home, in the event of certain warnings from the Met Office.

[Summer Sun]

London North Eastern Railway have issued a do not travel message for Sunday.

A significantly reduced service will be in operation all day during Sunday passengers with tickets for Sunday are advised to travel before 18:00 tomorrow or all day Monday

 

[knocker]

This evening's gfs is tracking the center further north than this morning's fax update and appears to have the area of strongest gusts south of the movement of the cold front

[Summer Sun]

 

CrossCountry have cancelled trains on the following routes on Sunday

• No services between York and Scotland
• No services between Bristol and the South West
• No services between Reading and Bournemouth

Grand Central have cancelled all services on Sunday

[wimblettben]

5 hours ago, Nick L said:

That Met Office amber warning makes absolutely no sense. Why only that area? The EC has widespread gusts of 70mph or so for pretty much the whole of Britain, this is NOT just a coastal event and I'm really concerned by the way they're downplaying this.

The UKV mean winds are very similar too. It's just puzzling why they've singled out a small area, it's so inconsistent with the model output.

Isn't it because the majority of models still only show most inland areas getting 40-60mph gusts?

I do agree though that if most places are going to get 70mph gusts then more of the country needs to be in the Amber warning.

 

[Guest]

The Met Office's model is showing lower max gusts than other models, though I do expect amber warnings to become more widespread tomorrow.

  GFS

  ICON

 ECMWF

Edited February 7, 2020 by Onding

[Josh Rubio]

Various Train Operating Companies are running to an amended service on Sunday with speed restrictions being imposed nationwide. 
 

I expect there to be a lot of fallen trees and obstructions on the line and overhead wires.

[Badgers01]

RHS Wisley is closed on Sunday due to High winds would imagine it’s the amber warning meaning it’s a statutory close ? 

[Wivenswold]

22 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Various Train Operating Companies are running to an amended service on Sunday with speed restrictions being imposed nationwide. 
 

I expect there to be a lot of fallen trees and obstructions on the line and overhead wires.

Yes it makes absolute operational and safety sense. Though for a laugh, do have a look through Train Companies' Twitter feeds to get a sense of the national feeling of self importance "We can send a rocket to the moon but one bit of wind and all the trains are cancelled" and "I'm important and 15 mins late getting to York. It's a disgrace" and even "Rail Company cancelled all the trains and it's not even that windy where i live" -type comments. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

For a laugh, do have a look through Train Companies' Twitter feeds to get a sense of the national feeling of self importance "We can send a rocket to the moon but one bit of wind and all the trains are cancelled" and "I'm important and 15 mins late getting to York. It's a disgrace" and even "Rail Company cancelled all the trains and it's not even that windy where i live" -type comments. 

It's one side or the other on Twitter, dialled up to 11. There's no middle ground, no voice of reason as they tend to get ignored  

[Ross90]

Quite a spread on the models, the ecm still going for 70-75 around Glasgow while the gfs is more like 50 mph.

[Nick L]

ECMWF just rolling in has edged the winds back up across England and Wales for Sunday. Well into the 70s and hints of exceeding 80mph over inland parts of Wales, perhaps into parts of the Midlands too. This HAS to be an amber warning.