Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[NL]

Trans-Atlantic records could be broken as currently theres an Airbus 340 reaching ground speed of 794mph..!!

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[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for tomorrow updated

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Jo Farrow]

Todays Front page 

Storm Ciara: Wild weather this weekend and for the start of next week. Gales, Rain, Snow and flooding

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Early fog and frost before the winds pick up this weekend. The Storm Ciara event runs from Saturday pm, through Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. Mostly about the winds but coastal flood risk too.

 

[stripeyfox]

1 hour ago, NL said:

Trans-Atlantic records could be broken as currently theres an Airbus 340 reaching ground speed of 794mph..!!

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wow, thats some fair old speed. We had a very quick overnight flight on a BA747 from JFK to Heathrow a few years back. I reckon it would have been close to the record if we'd not had to hold for a while before we could land in London.

 

 

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yellow warning for tomorrow updated

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Extension south of wind area Saturday 

 

[seb]

Amber warning for South Coast and Southeast. MO seems pretty confident that’s the worst affected area which goes in line with latest high-res models.

[Frosty hollows]

Met office update has 60mph gusts for me. I'm as far inland as you get. 50 mph is uncommon here

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 06/02/2020 at 10:07, Surrey said:

According to the GFS the south gets gusts over 50mph for over 12hrs.. The south coast and west even stronger!! 

Met office concur also

[Jo Farrow]

10 minutes ago, seb said:

Amber warning for South Coast and Southeast. MO seems pretty confident that’s the worst affected area which goes in line with latest high-res models.

 

[Mapantz]

I'm very surprised that the amber warning isn't larger. The touted wind speeds here are the on par with 14th February 2014.

[saint]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'm very surprised that the amber warning isn't larger. The touted wind speeds here are the on par with 14th February 2014.

I think if the models are still showing a similar picture tomorrow morning we will see it expanded. 

[Paul]

Jo's update from this morning:

Storm Ciara: Wild weather this weekend and for the start of next week. Gales, Rain, Snow and flooding

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Amber warning now issued. The Storm Ciara event runs from Saturday pm, through Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. Mostly about the winds but rain and coastal flood risk too.

 

[fujita5]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I'm very surprised that the amber warning isn't larger. The touted wind speeds here are the on par with 14th February 2014.

I'd expect it to be expanded along the Essex/Suffolk coast to cover the winds just ahead of the cold front. 

[Nick L]

That Met Office amber warning makes absolutely no sense. Why only that area? The EC has widespread gusts of 70mph or so for pretty much the whole of Britain, this is NOT just a coastal event and I'm really concerned by the way they're downplaying this.

The UKV mean winds are very similar too. It's just puzzling why they've singled out a small area, it's so inconsistent with the model output.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Nick L

[Summer Sun]

 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

But the yellow warning hasn't been updated since yesterday!

[Mapantz]

I don't know what Marco Petagna is on about when he says the only difference is confidence. The text shows different wind gust speeds between the yellow and amber warnings, the latter obviously being higher.

The whole system is flawed, both the naming storms and issuing warnings for them.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I don't know what Marco Petagna is on about when he says the only difference is confidence. The text shows different wind gust speeds between the yellow and amber warnings, the latter obviously being higher.

The whole system is flawed, both the naming storms and issuing warnings for them.

Agreed. I find it incredible that the Met Office haven't felt the need to update the rest of the wind warning for Sunday. This is a significant weather event.

[Ross90]

Where i am a yellow seems about right, 50-60 mph inland and 70 around coasts.Strangely the met are going for higher max gusts than the gfs, don't remember that happening before.

[saint]

Most of the train companies in the South East and London area have started warning of speed restrictions and disruption on Sunday. You get the feeling they’ve been briefed by the MetO to expect higher winds over a wider area than just the amber warming currently suggests. 

[Eskimo]

Just now, Nick L said:

Agreed. I find it incredible that the Met Office haven't felt the need to update the rest of the wind warning for Sunday. This is a significant weather event.

The system has always been flawed. Probably because they offer it as a public service and therefore receive no financial/profitable incentive to have these warnings absolutely correct. 

Or maybe I'm just being cynical.. 

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, saint said:

Most of the train companies in the South East and London area have started warning of speed restrictions and disruption on Sunday. You get the feeling they’ve been briefed by the MetO to expect higher winds over a wider area than just the amber warming currently suggests. 

Nope, the rail network is covered by the company I work for. We're going for higher winds than the Met. I've been on conference calls for most of the day to various parts of the network!

[saint]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Nope, the rail network is covered by the company I work for. We're going for higher winds than the Met. I've been on conference calls for most of the day to various parts of the network!

Ah great, thanks for the update! The more you know eh! 

[Ross90]

Everybody complaining about the met warning matrix but from what i've seen over recent years it's been fairly consistent.Amber warnings in built up areas usually get issued when they're expecting gusts of over about 65 - 70mph.Hardly any of the forecasts expect over 70 mph inland, it's mostly south and west coasts that get the 70-80 mph gusts.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Ross90 said:

Everybody complaining about the met warning matrix but from what i've seen over recent years it's been fairly consistent.Amber warnings in built up areas usually get issued when they're expecting gusts of over about 65 - 70mph.Hardly any of the forecasts expect over 70 mph inland, it's mostly south and west coasts that get the 70-80 mph gusts.

But that's not what the model output is showing at all. This was last night's EC but things are still pretty much the same.

If the models were showing what you're describing then I'd completely agree. What's baffling me is how the Met Office are ignoring consistent model output except for a small area in the southeast!

Edited February 7, 2020 by Nick L

[Geordiesnow]

Think there is a SE bias also because they are talking about strong wind gusts inland aswell and it covers a large population. 

I think there should be an Amber rain warning too, Cumbria in particular is looking very wet Saturday night and into Sunday. 

And there should be a wind warning for Tuesday, the models espoecially ECM seem to really want to tighten the isobars and the wind flow looks perfect for severe gales to occur east of the penninnes with the 'lee' affect creating such strong gusts.