Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

[mountain shadow]

Check out the Cairngorm summit forecast.

Hill walking not recommended.

[Frosty hollows]

12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

According to the GFS the south gets gusts over 50mph for over 12hrs.. The south coast and west even stronger!! 

Met office concur also

[Nick F]

Even here in south London 50 odd miles from the coast Met Office give 61 mph gust at 3pm on Sunday, imagine it'll be at least 10mph stronger on the south coast.

Looks like the Met Office are updating their warnings, perhaps they'll highlight some areas under amber, given the expected strength of winds over populated areas during daytime.

[stripeyfox]

36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Check out the Cairngorm summit forecast.

Hill walking not recommended.

Be hard work folding your map up!

 

[wimblettben]

I think its going to be the duration of the winds which will be the different thing about this storm as the actual speeds are the the same as the max gusts we have had in previous storms. There are only a few occasions where max gusts reach 60mph rather then the common 50mph.

If the gusts were showing 60-70mph for inland areas then in terms of strength it would be a different storm from what we have had previously and up another level from the usual 40-50mph range.

[elfinpunk]

Weston-super-Mare appears to be flitting between 53 and 58mph gusts from Sunday evening into Monday but the continuous prediction is 40mph+ from Saturday 9am until 6pm on Tuesday evening! Breezy. I am surprised we have lower gust predictions than London though, despite our exposed coastal position. 

Edit - New Metoffice update moves the 40mph+ winds to no earlier than Saturday evening now and a lowering to 51mph max over Sunday/Monday night x

Edited February 6, 2020 by elfinpunk

[Ross90]

We've now got yellow warnings for 4 consecutive days, snow + wind for Monday Tuesday. The max gusts appear to be on Saturday afternoon at about 56 mph.That wouldn't even be the strongest it's been this year so all a bit mediocre where i am.

[Tim M]

47 minutes ago, elfinpunk said:

 New Metoffice update moves the 40mph+ winds to no earlier than Saturday evening now and a lowering to 51mph max over Sunday/Monday night x

Yet for me in Mansfield and the East Midlands in general the speeds have been increased to gusts 60mph Sunday afternoon and mean speeds 30mph which is  extremely unusual for our location.

[elfinpunk]

13 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Yet for me in Mansfield and the East Midlands in general the speeds have been increased to gusts 60mph Sunday afternoon and mean speeds 30mph which is  extremely unusual for our location.

I wonder if this is moving the track more northerly than expected then? Much as I like extreme weather I do like my roof tiles firmly attached to my house... 

[Jo Farrow]

Starting Saturday pm, severe gales and very rough seas for Western Isles, Gales for Scotland, Northern Ireland, then northern England. From feature ahead of main low.

Two #sixNations matches on in the afternoon Dublin then Edinburgh.

"Issued: 10:08 (UTC) on Thu 6 Feb 2020  MO

An area of strong winds will move eastwards across Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England on Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph are expected widely inland with exposed coasts and hills seeing gusts of around 70 mph for a time. The winds will ease from the west during the evening."

Matrix parts of warnings seem to be straining , this showing as Likely but Low impacts, still could be quite busy on Saturday, especially with people getting out and about before Sunday.

 

[Jo Farrow]

Heavy rain from #StormCiara on Sunday and coastal flood risk into the new working week for parts of western Britain. Heavy rain will affect parts of NW England and Wales, heaviest over high ground where 40-60 mm is expected widely with perhaps up to 80 mm. 

Areas highlight in Env Agency 5 day outlook northern England and Wales, no word from SEPA yet about west coast Scotland next week. 

https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/5-day-flood-risk

 

[Jo Farrow]

WINDS Sunday. Storm Ciara "will bring very strong winds & potentially disruption to travel throughout Sunday. Strong winds will be widespread and last throughout much of Sunday." MO

It is the overall ongoing strong winds and gales which make this event,not necessarily the numerical value of individual gusts. 

[stripeyfox]

Bye bye fence. It was nice knowing you, but this may be your last storm old friend....

 

 

[Tim M]

To my totally untrained eye the latest GFS run seems to take the very worst of the wind gusts a little further south than before - or is that just wishful thinking from my point of view in the north Midlands/south Yorkshire area and not wanting the worst of the wind? 

[OddSpot]

Wow. The speed of the planes coming this way from the States where I think this storm is coming from

Going on 800 mph some of them. whereas some of those going towards the States are struggling to hit 400mph

One hell of a tail wind up there

Could be a new record set for a transatlantic flight from New York to Heathrow in the next few days

Edited February 6, 2020 by OddSpot

[DaveL]

There is another example of the ludicrously stupid wind speed presentation on the BBC website (Meteo), for Saturday night. Many if not most people will be using this!

For here at  9pm the forecast wind speed is 19 mph. At 10pm it is 40 mph. They switch from mean speeds to gust speeds at some seemingly random point between the two, without making that clear, and thereby misrepresenting the true forecast situation. One word: idiots - which wouldn't matter too much except that it reflects badly on the entire forecasting community. Someone should tell them that these are not aviation forecasts.

6 hours of 60mph+ gusts all Sunday afternoon here (Met O) sounds quite scary though.

Edited February 6, 2020 by DaveL

[Ross90]

They switch to gusts when it reaches gale force i believe and it's a different coloured icon too, can't say i've ever mistaken it for average speeds.The bbc generally go too high on gusts anyway.They're going for 62 mph where i am on Sunday while the met has max gusts of 54 mph.

[DaveL]

Other way round here, 57mph BBC, 63mph Met O.

Too soon for anywhere to be particularly accurate though, other than very windy everywhere.

 

[The PIT]

Remember the BBC is using different data hence the difference. Overall no real change in the wind speeds perhaps brought forward a wee bit. Friday is going to be an interesting forecast.  At the moment is looking like if the wind doesn't get you the rain will. May see a few rainfall records going on Sunday as well. 

My favourite with the Beeb forecast is when they have a warning out for say for heavy rain and then the forecast says dry all day with unbroken sunshine. The problem being that the warning is for a different part of Yorkshire but they can't seem to alter for the local forecast. As for presentation overall I find the people in the weather field who present data make basic mistakes of not labelling graphs properly if they even bother to do so. If I did that while doing my degree there would be a big red circle round the graph and lost marks.

Back to Met Office and Beeb forecasts I've just compared the forecasts and another thing to watch out for is that although both are using location to find where I am both are actually showing different areas which also leads to different forecasts.

[Dorsetbred]

Interesting on the comments about the rainfall, as reading the post from Jo earlier in this thread (maybe I'm reading it wrong) the suggestion is for hardly any rainfall here, in fact just off the coast the suggestion is a mere 2mm of rainfall...really?

Edited February 6, 2020 by Dorsetbred

[dusk]

7 hours ago, OddSpot said:

Wow. The speed of the planes coming this way from the States where I think this storm is coming from

Going on 800 mph some of them. whereas some of those going towards the States are struggling to hit 400mph

One hell of a tail wind up there

Could be a new record set for a transatlantic flight from New York to Heathrow in the next few days

Am I missing something here?

Are you really suggesting that a current commercial aircraft will get to 800mph? And that the transatlantic record will be broken?

i) I don't know of any current commercial airliner that breaks the sound barrier

ii) The record from New York to Paris is held by a Lockheed SR-71 which took 1 hour and 45 minutes 

[elfinpunk]

Judging by the airspeed I saw he may mean 600mph not 800mph as 570kts was the average eastbound but 430kts westbound. X

[ManiaMuse]

6 minutes ago, dusk said:

Am I missing something here?

Are you really suggesting that a current commercial aircraft will get to 800mph? And that the transatlantic record will be broken?

i) I don't know of any current commercial airliner that breaks the sound barrier

ii) The record from New York to Paris is held by a Lockheed SR-71 which took 1 hour and 45 minutes 

They are talking about groundspeed which is not the same as airspeed. Airspeed is relative to the speed of the wind. The speed of sound depends on airspeed.

With a 200mph+ tailwind from the Jetstream a commercial airliner can easily be traveling at 750-800mph groundspeed but still only Mach 0.85 airspeed and not breaking the speed of sound. Same in reverse with a headwind. 

[The PIT]

Downgrade for us this morning. Still windy though but the main windy spell 60 mph gusts a few hours Sunday morning then easing back by midday. Lasts longer to the south of us and on western coasts.

[OddSpot]

7 hours ago, dusk said:

Am I missing something here?

Are you really suggesting that a current commercial aircraft will get to 800mph? And that the transatlantic record will be broken?

i) I don't know of any current commercial airliner that breaks the sound barrier

ii) The record from New York to Paris is held by a Lockheed SR-71 which took 1 hour and 45 minutes 

Some are hitting 770mph ground speed (airspeed around 670mph) at the moment this morning

Just a snippet from the record commercial flight

Norwegian flight DY7014 from New York JFK to London Gatwick on Monday 15 January 2018 completed the full duration of the flight in 5 hours and 13 minutes – the fastest transatlantic flight recorded on a subsonic commercial aircraft. The previous record was 5 hours and 16 minutes.

The flight carrying 284 passengers departed New York at 11:44am and arrived at London at 9:57pm – 53 minutes early.

The day before the record-breaking flight, London Gatwick-based Captain Pascal Niewold recorded his fastest ever transatlantic flight of 5 hours and 20 minutes while flying the Boeing 787 Dreamliner from New York to London on Sunday 14 January. The flight had a maximum tailwind of 195 knots (224mph) and reached a top speed of 779mph.

So one would assume this powerful jet stream and storm Ciara will be bring some well ahead of schedule flights over the next few days