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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Even the UKMO is not without interest going forward.Maybe a mad March coming up?

 

UN144-21.thumb.GIF.58129a07bd502765e16ea3352af31181.GIFUN144-7.thumb.GIF.7114fc6dcd416aae9bd122d7753701f0.GIF

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Posted (edited)

I don't really look at the GEFS ensembles too much, but what's happening there on day 8?

 gefs.thumb.png.12aaa5b012fbbaa422d47cbe588f56d0.png

I like this, however:

h500slp.thumb.png.b34c5e55ea5e25f506e5f7745159b29b.png193079122_h500slp(1).thumb.png.84c6ba6f506fde33d81e3b8b1e1b6fb8.png1955065746_h500slp(2).thumb.png.73b8f825da7c1679cae62bc7880ba0ec.png

Edited by Zak M
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Posted (edited)

Such a shame it's a cold outlier ( the ECM op) we could have bagged ourselves our only real snow event for many in the Eastern half of the country this cold season. Or could it be a trend setter given all the other promising data weve seen?

Screenshot_20200307-200543_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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It’s a bit of a tease to see such cold air to the north but the models don’t really want to dig that into the UK .

The margins are quite small though so as SM just posted it could get interesting . 

 

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Lucky 7 from the 18z GEFS.?

 

gens-7-1-300.thumb.png.68a057df450c73b50f905b93a9614d12.pnggens-7-0-300.thumb.png.3092df74731d55a48d340f2227d6d72d.png

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Posted (edited)

ECMWF is showing signs of something to come on day 7:

cold.thumb.png.7063c7d90bef01399ee89d49a9bed8d6.png

ecm500_192.thumb.png.e718d50b4c350cb52cbf299a92e6da0a.png

I'm hoping we get at least one more snow event, hopefully a decent snow event, as that will fill the mouths of the hungry!

Edited by Zak M
Correciones!
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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

I'm hoping we get at least one more snow event, hopefully a decent snow event, as that will fill the mouths of the hungry!

Have we had a snow event yet?!  I guess you're referring to Thursday 27th February?  I agree, it would be great to have a decent snow event, though!

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As I'm someone who craves for snow, and some warmer weather, seeing charts like these enlighten my mood.

It will certainly be a taste of what the true spring feels like. 17c still possible up north, perhaps even higher!

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Zak M said:

As I'm someone who craves for snow, and some warmer weather, seeing charts like these enlighten my mood.

It will certainly be a taste of what the true spring feels like. 17c still possible up north, perhaps even higher!

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

Spring like weather quickly followed by 'proper' winter arriving?!  Fine by me!  I'm pretty sure even March 2013 had a warm snap early in the month when temperatures reached 17C?  Also, March 2018 became very mild following the BFTE early in the month prior to it's return for the weekend of the 17th!

Edited by Don
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43 minutes ago, Don said:

Have we had a snow event yet?!  I guess you're referring to Thursday 27th February?  I agree, it would be great to have a decent snow event, though!

Especially the places where they haven't had snow settle yet?

Those places need some snow fast!

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Especially the places where they haven't had snow settle yet?

Those places need some snow fast!

I certainly haven't seen snow settle IMBY this year!

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Beautiful from Icon 0z first of the day, in the mid range only 7.5days away! Lets hope for more from the big guns in the next few hours. 

20200308_034410.jpg

20200308_034425.jpg

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3 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Beautiful from Icon 0z first of the day, in the mid range only 7.5days away! Lets hope for more from the big guns in the next few hours. 

20200308_034410.jpg

20200308_034425.jpg

Well the overnight Ecm run certainly doesn’t seem to be following in the footsteps of the Icon 0z as it delivers little in the way of anything other than a continuation of the changeable dross we’ve been experiencing to date. 

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Certainly a pattern change of some kind now on the horizon by next weekend with a cold high setting shop near the UK.

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Morning...Tuesday's still looking okay:   h850t850eu.png

Day 5 is looking interesting:                    h850t850eu.png

Day 10 is looking more than interesting: h850t850eu.png

Palpitations start by T+283:                    h850t850eu.png

What is the point of cold weather, when there ain't no snow-chances? Snow is what it's all about!:yahoo:

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Certainly a pattern change of some kind now on the horizon by next weekend with a cold high setting shop near the UK.

I am not sure I can agree with that from my reading of the charts? Perhaps you could illustrate your view please?

Thanks

Having a closer look and the probability of a surface ridge is there I will admit. The EC-GFS 500 mb charts do suggest this probability although the NOAA set don't. So as ever time will tell.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Morning...Tuesday's still looking okay:   h850t850eu.png

00z EC showing 16C in Norfolk on Tuesday afternoon, taste of spring for eastern England

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-3852400.thumb.png.13274cdefa364ebeadd4704568e96bc2.png

Quite a bit of uncertainty developing with the upper pattern next weekend though between the 00z EC and GFS ops, comparison below shows EC digging a trough that eventually cuts off over western Europe, whilst GFS prefers to do it further east over eastern Europe while brings in a ridge over western Europe.

ecgfs_00z.thumb.gif.d8f5881572536744de4f7e1b6b4dde35.gif

Both eventually leading to high pressure building across the UK towards day 10 though, could be cold under high, if cold air is dragged in from the north prior to the high building as models suggest early next week, especially if there's cloud cover moving in after frosty nights.

Does look like, finally, the ever present strong PV these past few months is relaxing its grip ...

Edited by Nick F
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Next Sunday's GFS 06Z chart literally (this is for JH!) screams POTENTIAL!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Come on now, who else remembers early April 1968!:oldlaugh:

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Posted (edited)

Would anyone like some snow to properly finish the winter off?? ?

 

h500slp (3).png

h500slp (4).png

h500slp (5).png

h500slp (6).png

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150158864_prectypeuktopo(2).thumb.png.ef09ab3434b5d9a146e32e7588852792.png

Edited by Zak M
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Cold to the east, cold to the west...who will win? Either way...looks cold ?

707960FC-B6D8-495E-9660-2C4532228595.png

223D1A0D-ACF8-445A-92E6-43C2F7B716E4.png

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There’s a ball of cold to our East with our name on it.... ?

9FEED3AF-7928-4EBF-A324-A8B17CBC7AED.png

8189EEDA-407E-486A-BE8D-74A51F59AB04.png

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

There’s a ball of cold to our East with our name on it.... ?

9FEED3AF-7928-4EBF-A324-A8B17CBC7AED.png

8189EEDA-407E-486A-BE8D-74A51F59AB04.png

A period of heavy looking snow moving in from the east coast followed by snow showers.

gfs-2-318.png

gfs-2-324.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted (edited)

Just a wee westward nudge, and that kink will give us what we want?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

If only it were at Day 2!?

I would take this dollop, any day!?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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