Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 02/02/20


phil nw.
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Some lower ground snow accumulations possible in the north perhaps?

    snow.png

    snow0.png

    snow1.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    On 05/03/2020 at 23:17, feb1991blizzard said:

    Another cold GFS run again. in snaps rather than uniformly cold is a recurrent theme now for quite a few runs.

    This again on the latest, what's to bet the next run goes for warm and settled... My worry is it averages out as flat, wet and westerly! 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    What a 06z run this is with snow showers packing in from the NE

    gfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.c7e2915a1eaff8086da4691cbaa4429f.pnggfsnh-1-348.thumb.png.421f0831f4550c1f10bc2fb058fe4a3a.pnggfsnh-2-348.thumb.png.7feb85a9129524590f606ec88809065f.png

    all JFF though,lets see what the gefs ens show later,i would suspect that it will be a cold outlier.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Yes indeedy, here we go again in deepest FI, your such a tease GFS!?

     

     

     

    gfs-0-348.png

    gfs-1-348.png

    gfs-2-348.png

    gfs-0-360.png

    gfs-1-360.png

    gfs-2-360.png

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    What a 06z run this is with snow showers packing in from the NE

    gfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.c7e2915a1eaff8086da4691cbaa4429f.pnggfsnh-1-348.thumb.png.421f0831f4550c1f10bc2fb058fe4a3a.pnggfsnh-2-348.thumb.png.7feb85a9129524590f606ec88809065f.png

    all JFF though,lets see what the gefs ens show later,i would suspect that it will be a cold outlier.

    This is even better than last nights 18z run that turned out a near miss. Really would be nice if the 12z runs started to show something similar, not just the second rate 18z and 06z runs. 

    Edited by snowray
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    34 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes indeedy, here we go again in deepest FI, your such a tease GFS!?

     

     

     

    gfs-0-348.png

    gfs-1-348.png

    gfs-2-348.png

    gfs-0-360.png

    gfs-1-360.png

    gfs-2-360.png

    It's gone beyond a joke now. Should be threatened with being reprogrammed if it cannot behave reasonably.. 

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    35 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes indeedy, here we go again in deepest FI, your such a tease GFS!?

     

    GFS FI charts should be banned!

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Some nice charts from the GFS 06z today.

    On Tuesday, it could be a pretty mild or perhaps warm in places, with the peak temperature reaching 17c near the Lincolnshire/Yorkshire area.

     

    ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.daeea8855f5296143b59fa1db2d99053.png

     

    Some more settled air will push northwards towards the UK on day 10, meaning more settled and perhaps milder/sunnier weather.

     

    1550305561_h500slp(1).thumb.png.e6fe695c175f45a0fdd31d7eb28ea95f.pngh500slp.thumb.png.f043184ae8658d27d8c205212c2d0e36.png362583070_h500slp(2).thumb.png.da54a028557fe6ac79529ab92709310a.png1510033137_h500slp(3).thumb.png.ac509f75fe75a71e63845985218ba6b1.png

     

    And then after, some cold air will start to dig in on days 14 and 15

     

    789643367_h500slp(4).thumb.png.502201984975fb395847d44b027b3517.png1082710543_h500slp(6).thumb.png.98e52ab38949cadfec3d3d3277c6ddfc.png433620526_h500slp(7).thumb.png.ba87c6e00e93d93e0ffaf6ba3bc03274.png1759799012_h500slp(8).thumb.png.d0a2409bdb203c8553393c113ccb8aeb.png

     

     

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I thought I'd wait for the ensembles before posting on the 06Z:

    As Matt says (and as the GFS has been steadfastly predicting for what seems like weeks!) Tuesday looks like being something of a stonker::yahoo:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, after that, things get a lot more confusing: does the Operational become a cold outlier?

    T+216:  h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    T+321:  h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    T+384:  h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

     GEFS:  prmslBedfordshire.pngt850Bedfordshire.png

    So, not an outlier...but it's still flipped 'cold'!?

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    52 minutes ago, Don said:

    GFS FI charts should be banned!

    But then I wouldn't have a hobby and would have to talk with my loved ones... ? 

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, Griff said:

    JFF ?

     

     

    Look how close those negative mid teens uppers are!

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I've not posted for a while, and have watched these FI cold runs, and indeed settled runs without much enthusiasm because I think they are false - from all models not just the GFS, they haven't verified so far the last two or three months, what needs to change for them to occasionally verify now?

    Let's have another look at the strat zonal winds chart:

    image.thumb.jpg.d440da7b21e2554bc7173b9a58f3a5ac.jpg

    The blue bit, real data, is just bonkers.  GFS forecast in red.  While this beast is whirling away, model solutions showing high lat blocking or even mid lat blocking have proved to be spurious and will continue to be so in my opinion until the vortex starts to die.  GEFS take:

    image.thumb.jpg.db37f286834eaf3b80f2bda0af9ea58c.jpg

    Maybe, just maybe, these are showing a more significant decline now.  So the runs in FI might soon have a chance of verifying.  GFS 6z at T348:

    image.thumb.jpg.60b841a9cdf5e1258ba69ed5da44f258.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2351d4c3f44d913651321b514ce5c901.jpg

    image.thumb.jpg.bcbcaf8c083b5bf540a9a03dd9e5f661.jpg

    Looks to me on this run more of a petering out of the strat vortex rather than a dynamical final warming, and probably too late in this run to deliver the trop scenario pictured at the same time, but my eyes on spring and summer now, and the strat not rocking the boat much now would be a very good thing as we transition to summer patterns.

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Looks like we’ll continue to dance with teasingly cold (snow possible on high ground at times) polar maritime air masses for a bit longer in between warm sectors, due to the record-strong polar vortex, but perhaps with a trend toward more high pressure with time and the PM air tending to be more ‘relaxed’.

    Models suggesting some reduction in zonality of flow for the week after next but I’m not sure what that would be driven by while the polar vortex weakens only gradually. Tropics are quiet and AAM undertaking weak orbits.

    Hoping we don’t see many easterlies this month; with the big snow deficits out east and warmer than usual terrain, air from that way is more likely to be dank and cool than crisp and snow-friendly.

    • Like 9
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Interesting run!

    run.thumb.png.0c575e349b473ef049ed0340f66e8deb.png run0.thumb.png.23b9a873df1820e6d9d822adf81727ca.png run1.thumb.png.0aed82e6451ff7052390e548a5c2947a.png

    All eyes on the 12z run now and whether it still shows this. Probably won't!

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Hey up!!!

    now then what is the 12z ICON up to,it's certainly different to this morning's run with a ridge amplifying in the Atlantic.

    iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.4503a240b2f8a0494d5f0a4f3e22b92b.png iconnh-1-180.thumb.png.16d51b17681d57d1d94ad2c91968b062.png

     

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Right then (according to the GFS 12Z) after some possible wintriness anytime until T+200-ish, it's Hoped that high pressure will migrate from the SW and drift into Scandinavia, drawing-in some quite cold surface air?...So nowt too warm, but nothing desperately cold either. I hope!:oldgood:

    T+201:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    T+252:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    T+312:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    T+342:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    T+384:  h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But at least it'll be drier!:oldgood:

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    ECM showing a NE now . With a bit more amplification earlier on and it could be even better . 

    525B6703-6D19-40AD-8AD6-680513A1CFB1.png

    45A0723E-27DC-4E24-B446-3078CD06A0AA.png

    F8409C39-7182-4214-AFF2-F6FC0AC3A313.png

    E505CF04-3D9C-45B7-AEA5-461E36DA4BC5.png

    C733BE14-84F3-4A27-8DCC-F6A0569C5844.png

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Even the UKMO is not without interest going forward.Maybe a mad March coming up?

     

    UN144-21.thumb.GIF.58129a07bd502765e16ea3352af31181.GIFUN144-7.thumb.GIF.7114fc6dcd416aae9bd122d7753701f0.GIF

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    I don't really look at the GEFS ensembles too much, but what's happening there on day 8?

     gefs.thumb.png.12aaa5b012fbbaa422d47cbe588f56d0.png

    I like this, however:

    h500slp.thumb.png.b34c5e55ea5e25f506e5f7745159b29b.png193079122_h500slp(1).thumb.png.84c6ba6f506fde33d81e3b8b1e1b6fb8.png1955065746_h500slp(2).thumb.png.73b8f825da7c1679cae62bc7880ba0ec.png

    Edited by Zak M
    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-09-19 10:28:59 Valid: 19/09/2021 1200 - 20/09/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 19TH SEPT 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Atlantic systems facing a fight as they try to move in across the UK

      Atlantic systems continue to be partially 'blocked' as they approach, slowing down or grinding to a halt as they try to cross the country - with one such trough overhead today, and another not too far behind. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Mixed bag this weekend, some sun and some rain

      Dry with sunny spells for many on Saturday, though a band of showery rain for parts of the north and west. Heavy rain moving into eastern areas on Sunday, turning brighter in the west. Fine first half of next week, unsettled second half. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...