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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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4 hours ago, Nick F said:

Can't help but think if today's Channel low was 30-40 years ago it would have produced laying snow at all elevations even with the same broadscale pattern, and not the fail-safe cold/dry sourced surface easterly flow in place like March 2018. But given the polar air ahead of the low is probably mixed out by anomalously warm Atlantic Tm air of modified more these days with arrival of the low, it's been a struggle even though we've had a number of channel lows over recent days. Remember last Thursday's Channel low it tried to snow, wet snow at lower levels, and only temporary proper snow settling at elevation.

I fear the same, Nick in that it could have been a very different story if this occurred in the 1980's.  I was thinking the same last Thursday in fact.  Instead of copious amounts of snow, we got cold rain today!  However, what I do take as a comfort is that a trough brought substantial snow to some southern and south western parts on the 31st January/1st February 2019 without a deep cold source.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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34 minutes ago, Don said:

I fear the same, Nick in that it could have been a very different story if this occurred in the 1980's.  I was thinking the same last Thursday in fact.  Instead of copious amounts of snow, we got cold rain today!  However, what I do take as a comfort is that a trough brought substantial snow to some southern and south western parts on the 31st January/1st February 2019 without a deep cold source.

Not quite as simple as that. I daresay that there were plenty of channel lows which produced rain back in the day. Remember that we are also into March now, making the chances of snow considerably less than would be the case in deep winter.

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41 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not quite as simple as that. I daresay that there were plenty of channel lows which produced rain back in the day. Remember that we are also into March now, making the chances of snow considerably less than would be the case in deep winter.

Very true but as the climate warms, it will get harder to achieve snow events from these setups.

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And just for fun because it's my birthday in less than an hour... Silly FI

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Edited by Griff
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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another cold GFS run again. in snaps rather than uniformly cold is a recurrent theme now for quite a few runs.

Yes, I was hoping tonight's would be less flat than the previous, probably all change again come morning, but there seems to be a suggestion at least. 

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4 hours ago, Griff said:

And just for fun because it's my birthday in less than an hour... Silly FI

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Seeing as that's my birthday weekend it stands a better chance, as I normally go snow hunting abroad that weekend but when I do, it normally snows here. Though I hit the jackpot in Iceland last year, but missed northern lights due to constant snow. Seems they've had a fair bit this season from looking at tv forecasts showing constantly white blobs over most of the country.

I've cancelled by Pisa trip, so may just chance bonny Scotland instead. Finger & toes xd

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10 hours ago, Don said:

I fear the same, Nick in that it could have been a very different story if this occurred in the 1980's.  I was thinking the same last Thursday in fact.  Instead of copious amounts of snow, we got cold rain today!  However, what I do take as a comfort is that a trough brought substantial snow to some southern and south western parts on the 31st January/1st February 2019 without a deep cold source.

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

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Signs continuing to emerge this morning of something more springlike in nature with mid March still holding the promise of far less unsettled conditions with heights encroaching from the southwest. Fingers crossed!!

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10 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

Every cloud has a silver lining 8)

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Very tentative signs (if the 00Z is anything like accurate) of something less-unsettled developing after Day 7...Though, I wouldn't bet my house on it!:oldlaugh:

T+204: h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Not that slower-moving weather is always a good thing, however:?

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34 minutes ago, Tuxedo said:

I agree. I think we are now experiencing the real and practical change in our day to day weather effected by a global change. 15/20 years ago such a system would have bought heavy snow to the South as would have the other low that effected Southern England earlier in the week. The fact that an easterly wind is now news worthy is also significant in the way we view our weather. In the 70’s and 80’s an easterly wind that bought subzero temps wasn’t news worthy and calling it Beast from the East would have been un heard of as easterlies were much more common. News of snow and the subsequent consequences of course were reported but the easterly wind was not the news as it was a more common feature of our winters weather. Sadly the hunt for cold and snow in our winters are becoming a thing of the past. Rare and exceptional burst of cold will of course still occur and hence will be huge news but forums that focus on cold weather will become much quieter as our winters become Atlantic driven and milder and as the land masses warm up and the bite of any easterly will be less effective as a cold source.

I,m afraid I disagree with this having lived close to the south coast for the past 60 years I can assure you that not every low moving through the channel in winter has brought snow. There have been plenty of occasions where cold rain and sleet have been the outcome. The fact is that without a feed of relatively dry cold air to tap into the outcome for lowland southern England is always likely to be cold rain/sleet rather than settling snow. 

I can also remember events when even with a cold feed wet snow that didn't settle was what we got  on low ground. In those situations. Shaftesbury and the north Dorset hills would get settling snow. I know because I used to drive up there from the wet coast to see it.  Without a feed of dry cold continental air it is always marginal down here.   

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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15 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Anomaly charts are from yesterday....who knows. 

they were current.
true though that for that period they arent now quite as bullish, and this morning for that period they are looking pretty average which must be welcome. But thats a long way off and firstly we have a rather turbulent week to get through with wind, rain, gales, snowshowers, bright fresh sunny spells.

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D10 - Atlantic conveyor slowing down:
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D12 - Smorgasbord of options:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030600_300.

D15 - Wind and rain could be finally starting to fade into the ether:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030600_360.

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In fi the 00z and 06z are not too dissimilar in our locale on GFS with a low to the SW and a Easterly. Latest 6z maintains the signal for snow for the North this time with a fairly long drawn Easterly. ECM clusters are all over the place so it's a possibility atleast. Now why couldnt this have happened a month or 2 ago?!

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Morning all ?

As I've remarked on the strat thread the GFS is again showing a signal for change with the PV finally weakening and the Atlantic slowing.

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We've been here before of course but there has been a signal for this change to occur after mid month for a while (muted at times admittedly). The 00Z Ensembles (as with the ECM) showing no clear trend as we go past mid month and especially toward the end of the week after next.

 

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Just now, stodge said:

I'll raise you P14:

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Yes - good spot - wonder if i missed that one because i would have had that better as well - i don't always go through them in order - bizarre i know but i look at the graph and also i tend to look at which ones are 'on form' or have 'cold biases' first.

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While the pattern to date suggests the models will flatten closer to the time the day 9-13 outlook (and Euro appears to agree) does suggest quite a lovely spring spell away from the north west. Rising uppers would probably get us into the mid to high teens.

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What a difference between the ECM op and the mean. The former having us becoming more settled and warmer, while the latter keeps us colder and less settled! Personally I think the op may have lost the plot, be of interest to see where the 12s take this. 

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