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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes,  powerhouse NE flow there, deep convection breaking out almost anywhere that late in season with a chart like that but places like N Yorks, Sunderland and Newcastle would get absolutely marmalised.

Not too sure any deep cold weather will become entrenched anywhere near our shores around the much anticipated mid March timeframe judging the Ecm 00Z for it now too shows a sudden surge in pressure from the southwest just at the end of the run, hopefully heralding an end to this miserable excuse for a winter. 

EFA2B1A7-B2A2-432C-8208-F3B8322B8CD8.jpeg

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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GFS just likes to tease, I know deep FI never to be seen, but surprised this output is still showing, given how quiet it is here this morning... 

gfsnh-1-282.png

gfsnh-0-282 (1).png

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7 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS just likes to tease, I know deep FI never to be seen, but surprised this output is still showing, given how quiet it is here this morning... 

gfsnh-1-282.png

gfsnh-0-282 (1).png

Ever heard the expression... Once bitten, twice shy? 

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Just now, Snowfish2 said:

Ever heard the expression... Once bitten, twice shy? 

Yeah, but if that was sincerely the case, none of us would ever come back ?

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12 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Not too sure any deep cold weather will become entrenched anywhere near our shores around the much anticipated mid March timeframe judging the Ecm 00Z for it now too shows a sudden surge in pressure from the southwest just at the end of the run, hopefully heralding an end to this miserable excuse for a winter. 

EFA2B1A7-B2A2-432C-8208-F3B8322B8CD8.jpeg

ECM not buying it admittedly.

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2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yeah, but if that was sincerely the case, none of us would ever come back ?

Yea I agree we are like ready for another one... Lambs to the slaughter 

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All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

Edited by Nick F
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Extended ECM doesn't have much of a clue past mid month:

image.thumb.png.4d57602834362b951a0b65c6b44f3720.pngimage.thumb.png.d9b665737bb88f9af9a30b80e5071122.png

Something from the west still looks most likely,but this could take any form at the moment. At least the very deep troughing looks to be gone (D7 below)

image.thumb.png.6d596e583e052fd5c4e7847853b0a58b.png

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

Indeed - a wide area of 20-30 mm rainfall totals likely when the noon runs of the previous day had only a few mm for most, up to 10 mm far south coast from GFS and ECM, other models even less.

An exceptionally large mishap! Fascinating dynamical difficulties.

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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Indeed - a wide area of 20-30 mm rainfall totals likely when the noon runs of the previous day had only a few mm for most, up to 10 mm far south coast from GFS and ECM, other models even less.

An exceptionally large mishap! Fascinating dynamical difficulties.

The 1800 ecm did start edging the rain north and as far as I can see, the problem was/is the precise movement of the low and associated front I did note a METO broadcast mentioning the doubt about this yesterday

1395806822_ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-341680000.thumb.png.0c20e9d6829dcbffeb3dbc68f1539f99.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-3416800.thumb.png.b3d3df633340d8bfca94f2cc1e7c67fa.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.280e63929043c25d00460b519824c5ab.gif

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Hopefully, signs that the isobars may slacken-off a tad?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

As for whether it'll be warm/cold/wet/dry, who knows?:unsure2:

And who would sat 'nyet' to the T+384 chart? Not me!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

I'm really surprised to see how far north the PPN has got, Met Office had this channel low way to the south of the UK last night, how can they have been so far out? All rain of course, if it had been cold enough for snow it would have surely missed the south. 

GFS once again was spot on, they always showed it further north.

 

 

6-574UK.gif

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4 hours ago, Nick F said:

All the models yesterday struggled with the northward extent of rain this morning across the south, on yesterday's 12z runs UKV was most way out of all of them

10am radar 

999490798_Screenshot_20200305-102457_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.66632d42a6fd430bf16b2b9fb4bfecd9.jpg

12z runs yesterday for 10am this morning 

GFS

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400-1.thumb.png.616949f028884270246d57e96c911a2c.png

EC

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_1hr_inch-3402400.thumb.png.9d530ccf3b02254c3ebf501392e495f9.png

UKV

viewimage-39.thumb.png.b0467726e7cf28b8aa8178645b1f9f95.png

Yes I was surprised too ... blimey imagine if it had been a bit colder upstream, what with it being the northern edge of a channel low, the south coast would have been buried in snow today with no warning at all, would have been a forecasting catastrophe, an awful lot of rain has fallen here in Portsmouth today (12mm in last 12 hours) compared with the next to nothing predicted 24 hours ago.

On to the future, I know the clusters have been covered by others already but to add my slant on it, there does seem to be a repetitive pattern of the ECM trying to building pressure further north into the mid-Atlantic at around D10 but it all falling to pieces by D8. Will this go the same way? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030500_264.

Edited by Man With Beard
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GFS 12Z has got a slightly colder take on a week's time... 

gfsnh-1-186.png

Edited by Griff
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Longer-term we can but hope for a respite, from all this wind and rain:

T+219: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+318: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+348: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Methinks we've been here before??

 

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11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Longer-term we can but hope for a respite, from all this wind and rain:

T+219: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+318: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

T+348: h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png

Methinks we've been here before??

Would beat wet and cold, but chances are it comes back from the pub tonight with different ideas again? 

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Looking at day 8 onwards, some more settled and milder weather will be in place over the UK.

gfs.thumb.png.9cc659ae135d9bdbe4f4bebb13ab01b6.png

gfs0.thumb.png.88ed2ee8f0c543c5554c219662d4a0c2.png

gfs1.thumb.png.8cde2a138fe45d76caaad74b67d59b6c.png

gfs2.thumb.png.a18d44fadf7431cc62f01937d8001932.png

gfs3.thumb.png.9dbeac26c40c8ea3dba79f0803cb5e8e.png

It isn't until day 13 however when the more settled and milder weather gradually and slowly starts to slip away leading to cold air taking over for most of the UK.

gfs4.thumb.png.7fd8e89b3e30b92b5907789ec8fb7aa6.png

gfs5.thumb.png.267718d2fbf7ff5166ef102f493ce3cc.png

gfs6.thumb.png.0c785fab8d0904f8bc19dd6e56198402.png

gfs7.thumb.png.869637a89eab56b8f2989def1d88fe00.png

On days 13 and 14, some warm temperatures are present over the SE, ranging from 14-18c at the greatest. Central France reaching into the low 20s on day 13.

gfs8.thumb.png.0f181ee1d0b2084d71ab24b27b9eafb5.png

gfs9.thumb.png.7dbbff3df4c481665bc7fc38b6ddb1a7.png

gfs10.thumb.png.0fc49838aa410f08dcc315f0fe192b80.png

gfs11.thumb.png.6b6d589f3b64b16e954114888351a7c4.png

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The GFS 12z might be trying to fool us with the promise of something better.... but the anomalies dont agree, and look distinctly chilly, breezy and unsettled.  Has the 12z identified a new pattern or is it an outlier?



 

814day.03.gif

test8.gif

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3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The GFS 12z might be trying to fool us with the promise of something better.... but the anomalies dont agree, and look distinctly chilly, breezy and unsettled.  Has the 12z identified a new pattern or is it an outlier?



 

814day.03.gif

test8.gif

Anomaly charts are from yesterday....who knows. 

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