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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Evening all ?

Well, after a week of unrelenting similarity, the models are starting to sniff change in the air (or something else, in my part of London you never can tell). The attempt to build a wedge of heights fails on the OP but doesn't on the Control leading to trough disruption and a warm SE'ly.

The CFS 06Z monthly is eye candy for cold weather fans (the T+534 chart is a thing of beauty especially for the SE). 

I can't quite see why the 12Z GFS OP does what it does - the PV still seems very strong over NW Greenland while the Control takes the bulk of the PV energy over the Pole to Siberia. The 10 HPA on the 12Z OP looks interesting as the coldest strat profile seems to transfer back from Siberia to Canada in far FI - all very curious.

GEM keeps the zonal train on the rails to T+240 while ECM 12Z is still rolling and we'll see.

Is this a GFS curiousity or is there a new signal in town? 

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14 minutes ago, stodge said:

Is this a GFS curiousity or is there a new signal in town? 

Funny, I asked the same question about a week ago and was told fairly emphatically that models are being skewed by the expiring PV, as it does at this time of year. And more so, I shouldn't trouble myself with thoughts of cold. 

Well PV remains, and rose tinted optimism exists. I've checked the 850s for FI and they would deliver, but what chance of counting down 2 weeks? 

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10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Funny, I asked the same question about a week ago and was told fairly emphatically that models are being skewed by the expiring PV, as it does at this time of year. And more so, I shouldn't trouble myself with thoughts of cold. 

Well PV remains, and rose tinted optimism exists. I've checked the 850s for FI and they would deliver, but what chance of counting down 2 weeks? 

None and the high is sinking over us in those charts shown on the previous page. Cold but probably fairly dry.

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1 hour ago, Griff said:

I'd love to see charts with the associated temperatures too, I'm being cynical but are we looking at cold and wet or cold enough for snow? 

 

5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

None and the high is sinking over us in those charts shown on the previous page. Cold but probably fairly dry.

You wouldn't bet against it would you? Cold and dry that is, after such a long wait, then fizzle... No precipitation! 

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS + UKMO tonight on the same page usually means curtains for the often progressive ECM 12z

Can we get enough cold backing west > Not sure yet but cold & frosty could be good especially as that means dry!

Still opportunities from the Northerly though with the -8c line lurking close....

GFS and ECM look poles apart to this observer tonight. 

GFS 12Z OP at T+192:

gfs-0-192.png?12

ECM 12Z OP at the same time:

ECM1-192.GIF?02-0

GEM 12Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-192.png?12

Nearer ECM than GFS as far as I can see. ECM screams no change to this observer with a continuation of the flat pattern into next week. A couple of better days with transient ridges but mostly unsettled with further rain for many areas.

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22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS + UKMO tonight on the same page usually means curtains for the often progressive ECM 12z

Can we get enough cold backing west > Not sure yet but cold & frosty could be good especially as that means dry!

Still opportunities from the Northerly though with the -8c line lurking close....

GFS and ECM look poles apart to this observer tonight. 

GFS 12Z OP at T+192:

gfs-0-192.png?12

ECM 12Z OP at the same time:

ECM1-192.GIF?02-0

GEM 12Z OP at the same time:

gem-0-192.png?12

Nearer ECM than GFS as far as I can see. ECM screams no change to this observer with a continuation of the flat pattern into next week. A couple of better days with transient ridges but mostly unsettled with further rain for many areas.

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Posted (edited)

Certainly nothing Spring like from the latter stages of the ECM, cold to the N/NW is a lurking with intent... If we could have more runs like p14 from GFS 12z shows, then it's game on... Now that's what I call a stonking Nthly!! A little bit of excitement creeping into the models, just as we depart Winter... 

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

gens-14-0-336.png

gens-14-0-348.png

gens-14-1-336.png

wow-rock.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS + UKMO tonight on the same page usually means curtains for the often progressive ECM 12z

Can we get enough cold backing west > Not sure yet but cold & frosty could be good especially as that means dry!

Still opportunities from the Northerly though with the -8c line lurking close....

Ecm diverts as early as 96 hours but is it right?the gfs op is actually a mild outlier in terms of 850 temps for next week!!didnt see that one coming?!!!if gfs sticks to its guns then i expect ecm to fall in line by tomorrow!!!

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets see what the 18z Brings up however a quick analysis between the 00z ENS & the 12z ENS shows much colder trending indicated by the increase in frequency of the dark blues for London > The key here being the -8c line!

Looks like spring is on hold-

766C3B75-8BAA-4139-8BCB-CF8DC2AB521B.thumb.jpeg.a9fa61baac2570cd12bda68fc02848dc.jpeg6D9C885E-7253-4A3C-88E3-A62791183A10.thumb.jpeg.63ae7f6d73b42c3b83b4ce288b53d2f7.jpeg

18z holding firm at 96 hours!!not backing ecm at all!!

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Wowsers, wasn't expecting this at T90:

image.thumb.jpg.692e0982ced33b633a9086a5f922b288.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a1d4e62ad5dd2dd73dfdf4a0d3b7f989.jpg

Maybe I've been away from the action  for a few runs...

Interesting...

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Wow!!what a chart at 120 hours!!surely ecm backs down tomorrow!!

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168hrs 12z Vs 18z ...Net result is about the same ??‍♂️

B6063E78-CDAE-42B1-89C9-854E2C5DF7AA.png

223AB06A-B31A-47C7-AA55-0431C769684D.png

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We may be able to sustain an Easterly for X2 days-

But sadly we are heading for another extreme +AO episode in about 9-10 days relating to the turbocharged Strat.

So when it does arrive another period of stormy weather arriving from the west.

We could see another +6 AO again > thats only the third occasion in all time measuring. other 2 date records.

Feb 20 & Feb 20...

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

We could see another +6 AO again > thats only the third occasion in all time measuring. other 2 date records.

Feb 20 & Feb 20...

Looks to me though that there is still severe upper cold locked up there - this is gonna go bang at some point, and whilst cold is most likely to spill out in very frigid form to the USA, it can still pack a punch in April here.

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Look at that gradient in E Canada.

image.thumb.png.f1ca5cdeaf2e80ba0484b76eeb971522.png

If we can get some sort of injection south of some frigid air, waves dumping copious amounts of PPN can form with pressure gradients like that, of course that type of setup would be more marginal if we could get one but big reward if we could.

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Amazing consistency from GFS even in FI...  12z Vs 18z ...

F9A4B65A-9172-4A81-8D00-8AD754CB8AC1.png

6BCE51E0-86ED-43ED-B67F-DF4AEB2D63C2.png

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But this could still happen folks, GFS pub run at T312:

image.thumb.jpg.a4d69b121e72d13ebdcf1326c49bfa67.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ddc1bcfab5a2e0148d028deb33099b0.jpg

Keep the faith folks!

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Another example of  the temperature gradient to our NW.

 

image.thumb.png.5dd199aed5a0f8d4c933c6ade7355fc3.png

Look at how heavy the snow is.

image.thumb.png.f73d94d908bd789618b984917c6475e2.png

 

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Posted (edited)

That heavy snow to the South of Iceland on that chart needs a good fat kick over the the UK and then just stay their for a good while. :spiteful:

Could be quite amusing to see whether the GFS 00Z run maintains an amplified ridge in the mid Atlantic towards the weekend. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Removing empty space
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7 hours ago, shaky said:

Wow!!what a chart at 120 hours!!surely ecm backs down tomorrow!!

Ukmo sits firmly with ECM this morning with a mobile wet and mild weekend, I think we know where that leaves the gfs chance of verifying! 

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Awful output this morning for either proper cold or proper Spring warmth. 

The PV remains all conquering with low after low moving across the Atlantic.  Occasional Pm air bringing snow over high ground.

Wet, wet, wet.

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Gfs backed down in the end then?didnt really see that coming this time!!maybe a middle ground not a full climb down!

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Posted (edited)

Not sure why there is so more interest in a possible easterly?  It isn't to be a frigid one like that of two years ago and it will be coming across a virtually snowless Europe anyway. So will it be a cold easterly at the surface?

snowdepth_20200303_00_240.jpg

And do we want Atlantic systems disrupting and become slowing over the UK dumping more rain over us because of a Scandi block anyway?!

Edited by Weather-history
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