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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Both the ECM and UKMO if you compare yesterday’s 00hrs runs to day 5 with today’s to day 4 are a bit more amplified but the GFS really is developing much more amplitude .

We’re now seeing some trough disruption as that comes up against the high over Scandi.

 

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Could we be headed for a 1975-esque 'last hurrah'? I wouldn't mind that, myself; but please Mr God, don't let it last all the way into June!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

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Hopes of a more settled period for mid-March ... not looking good anymore on the EC clusters. Very unsettled ensembles now very much in the ascendancy into the 2nd third of the month. Pressure rises to the east in the minority for now.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030200_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030200_360.

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Could we be headed for a 1975-esque 'last hurrah'? I wouldn't mind that, myself; but please Mr God, don't let it last all the way into June!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

Can last until xmas as far as i am concerned - lets instead of having an extended Autumn all the year around, have an extended winter for once.

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hopes of a more settled period for mid-March ... not looking good anymore on the EC clusters. Very unsettled ensembles now very much in the ascendancy into the 2nd third of the month. Pressure rises to the east in the minority for now.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030200_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020030200_360.

Was just going to say the same. Anyone hoping for some settled weather may we waiting quite a while longer yet. As usual, Atlantic influences underplayed, and look like dominating for the next 2-3 weeks at least. When will it end!!!

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Number 7 for me the best this time, -12c isotherm quite widely and a full on blizzard for the South, South West and South of Ireland, wonder how many times that kind of a blizzard has occured on the South coast of the ROI deep into March before.

image.thumb.png.88e6ccb22227d7470652ca85095812d5.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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How far in advanced do deep areas of low pressure start to show on the models? I ask because I have an outdoor event in the NW (Manchester) on Saturday the 14th. I assume it’s too early to know at this stage? 

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Just now, Josh Rubio said:

How far in advanced do deep areas of low pressure start to show on the models? I ask because I have an outdoor event in the NW (Manchester) on Saturday the 14th. I assume it’s too early to know at this stage? 

Way too soon to know what the weather will do in 12 days time, soz if off topic

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can last until xmas as far as i am concerned - lets instead of having an extended Autumn all the year around, have an extended winter for once.

Hey Feb, I admire your staying power... All round cold snaps!! They don't come much more hardcore than you mate. GFS operational says to spring.... You are the weakest link... Goodbye!! Mid month snow charts are insane!! Now I would say, snow charts this far out are highly unlikely... But on the other hand if we can just get some decent cold locked in.... Then maybe not!! Interesting to see all the same. 

Edit... The bottom gif is what I would love to see some time this month.... Please god.... Make it so... ?

 

gfs-1-336.png

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gfs-0-348.png

06_291_preciptype.png

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06_300_preciptype.png

06_315_preciptype.png

friday-snowstorm-headed-for-newfoundland-and-labrador-1_large.jpg

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9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-162.pnggfs-0-138.png?12

GFS Direction of Travel yesterdays 18z Vs todays 12Z

Yup and you can see that low at 48 hours now slightly further south and starting to crawl towards ecm and ukmo 00z runs!!gota say thats a massive change and i wonder whats causing it?

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Tuesday will be a day similar to today, with scattered showers affecting the majority of the British Isles.

tuesday.thumb.png.86ed7e4be08d02748ece6dda5a3374b7.pngtuesday0.thumb.png.c64f5d28fa2dd5046a9dbb457de179c8.pngtuesday1.thumb.png.9e7551cbf24e82bf93466e713a6121a1.png

tuesday2.thumb.png.5e336cb5bb79f1388fccd84ba955ecbb.pngtuesday3.thumb.png.a68c3df053377e4b2a3aa3e7d1448837.pngtuesday4.thumb.png.d07b82204655cdd27e9c3a81705eb2b6.png

Tuesday morning

On Tuesday morning, a band of cloud will drift eastwards across the UK, mainly affecting Wales and some northern places. This band of cloud could produce some rain, perhaps heavy. Some frost patches in the north due to low temperatures are possible.

Elsewhere, it will be a mostly dry morning, with most places having a chance of getting stuck in the odd shower. 

It will be a chilly morning tomorrow. Temperatures in the morning in the south should range from 0 - 5c, and temperatures in the north should range from -3 - 3c.

tuesday5.thumb.png.fbe6f3751b4f1c0fd33b5c4bc0c8974f.pngtuesday6.thumb.png.4e87343d1b2c72cd70eb56aba4880022.png

tuesday7.thumb.png.f12ca9267316ee58f32ca7df73c2dce1.pngtuesday8.thumb.png.e47513b321c4a1b31abb6c1e48cdd240.png

tuesday9.thumb.png.e2ef46d1b20bd3f752feb10d78008884.pngtuesday10.thumb.png.07af5bc5556ebae42a82d4e014e3c59b.png

Tuesday afternoon

On Tuesday afternoon, the band of cloud and perhaps some rain that was originally over Wales and some places in the north should reach eastern parts of England by the afternoon, with a chance of some of the rain embedded in the band of cloud becoming heavy.

Behind the band of cloud and rain, showers will gradually develop. In the early afternoon, the showers will be present in more western areas. Later in the afternoon, however, they will start to move SE, meaning that almost anywhere has the chance of seeing a shower. These showers could be heavy, with hail possibly accompanied in the showers.

These showers will be the heaviest in the NW of England and Scotland, where some hail and even thunder could be possible. If one of these showers travel across the hills in the north, then sleet/snow will be possible.

It might feel a bit chilly still in the afternoon, with temperatures in the south ranging from 6-10c in the south, and 2-7c in the north.

tuesday11.thumb.png.a2d267528f349db386351c6b1546a171.pngtuesday12.thumb.png.ff8f878e0d5c2ad0bf8bb7b8bd294e44.png

tuesday13.thumb.png.a6b9f7e2f33b4f20adad811fb5d778a8.pngtuesday14.thumb.png.1b4dd8900d4db74afeaea6692b97e7c2.png

tuesday15.thumb.png.b12f7ddd31918c2dec1845cb7261e40b.pngtuesday16.thumb.png.79fdb30f97d5b4f0b7d4d5666a95c315.png

Tuesday evening

On Tuesday evening, most of the showers across England will gradually start to fade away, leaving a mostly dry evening and perhaps seeing some nice evening sunshine. 

The showers will still occur however across some northern areas, particularly Scotland, where more showers start to pack in from the west, making it a pretty wet evening. Hail is possible in these showers, along with sleet and snow possible if they travel over the hills. Some sunshine is possible inbetween the showers.

A chilly evening and night to come for the British Isles tomorrow, where temperatures in the south ranging from 2-6c, and ranging from 0-5c in the north.

tuesday17.thumb.png.85f6b2d34575fb077b1fd487c315d2f4.pngtuesday18.thumb.png.da1d060945aa90c16eabbb2ea3179ecc.pngtuesday19.thumb.png.bbb6f129959c5cffb4396a579591d0bd.png

Enjoy the rest of your Monday! :hi:

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17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup and you can see that low at 48 hours now slightly further south and starting to crawl towards ecm and ukmo 00z runs!!gota say thats a massive change and i wonder whats causing it?

The Russian High (block) is the game changer over the last 36-hours and has slowed the Atlantic and modelling pressure drops near the UK with colder air channelling to our NW/N:

36h ago chart>194328341_gfseu-0-240(1).thumb.png.52f7e6daa85863faa2301f4cccd2c405.png12z>gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.1ef72f0e04e080af0764753082092c9d.png

D11 profile:

gfseu-1-264.thumb.png.98696c31c65cb3170f66813a8130867a.pnggfseu-0-270.thumb.png.682e3169c33f781c293b1302ac6fc05d.png

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Now that's what I want to see!!:clapping:

spring.png

spring0.png

spring1.png

spring2.png

spring3.png

I'd love to see charts with the associated temperatures too, I'm being cynical but are we looking at cold and wet or cold enough for snow? 

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