Jump to content

Model output discussion 02/02/20


Recommended Posts

The GEM over the last few runs has been showing a band of rain turning into snow on day 5.

No other models show this so it most likely won't verify.

gem.thumb.png.fda88b54879239b2b62d33022a2f8d93.pnggem0.thumb.png.b744037fcf69af02ba41c289b40e1be3.pnggem1.thumb.png.e090c775e33c0207c04a6ff96b914e47.pnggem2.thumb.png.df8da81401b3cda788e860acdd1013a3.png

Imagine if this did verify - what an end to winter that would be!

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

Posted Images

The duality of early spring is here for all to see in the GEFS 6z extended range and even if these don’t occur there is at least a decent chance of a north / south split in that range with the south potentially having a drier spell according to the mean as we approach mid March.

3118AA4A-0B87-4973-AA88-0DDB0477A4B0.thumb.png.2bb75caccf51082de119836d8ed6c30a.png4D64A5AB-5A10-43CE-960C-76B31C51BC61.thumb.png.bc3b1d268f88ac8886b8ea1beb3620b0.png704AFA2E-019D-481C-91A3-FE031B4941D2.thumb.png.fb376072df93f1890394c9d30159103b.pngD6036A2F-6E3B-4CE2-A754-DF140E4631B0.thumb.png.802373e6543d6fdc74d37189255929d0.png5902A840-973A-49C6-BE6F-DAC6CC40BF9F.thumb.png.819417a073763b4eae658f296b561fa0.pngAA4C1EA7-7CD5-4B59-954A-49723ABD4680.thumb.png.65e03728ef65087037005f5c4fe144c8.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The GEM over the last few runs has been showing a band of rain turning into snow on day 5.

No other models show this so it most likely won't verify.

 

Trend setter ?

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hi knocker. It could include people like you. The detailed summaries you do, including both the shorter and longer range. Also you and John Holmes insight into the anomaly charts. Don’t really want to name specific names really, as enjoy all the varying views people offer on this thread, but other examples could include...

Zak M’s and Jordan smith’s detailed short range posts (again, like you). Nick Sussex’s amusing look into the behaviour of shortwaves, Low Pressure and the upstream pattern. The excitement and love from ICE COLD, Feb1991blizzard, Steve Murr, Mr Frost, northwestsnow (and other snow weather fans) updates of cold weather in the charts. And the way they could light up like a big candle when models throw out snowmagedon outlooks (meant in a good way and I appreciate some of those people love the warmer weather too). Then you’ve got Man With Beard and mb018538 with their focus on the ECMWF clusters and the direction they’re taking. Mike Poole, Nick F and IDO with their objective viewpoints of the models generally in the medium and longer range. And to be fair, you do provide objective analysis in your summaries too. Shaky and his funny reactions when some snow pops up. Frosty/Jon Snow’s snippets of cold, snowy, dry or hot weather in both the closer and FI zone of the charts. Bluarmy’s useful hints of the extended ensembles. And to sorta bring it all together, MattWolves humour and ‘trying to keep everyone’s toys in the pram’ approach. But also enjoy the comical views from the likes of Allseasons-si with his/her rather in-depth posts. And then tight isobar, who adds an interesting flavour to the model thread.

Other mentions could include mushymanrob, where he could try injecting realism to the thread when the excitement of certain weather types in here gets too high. The are other examples too that I’m sure I’ve forgotten and, again, sorry for anyone that’s been missed out.

Basically, quality for me would be posts that provide an interesting viewpoint of the models and where I can learn things from. Generally posts that offer quite a good amount of detail (but on a personal level, like to read a varied mix of posts both long and short as longs as it’s about the models). Not everyone I know will agree with the above and some of this is just my subjective viewpoints really. 

Actually I didn't mean how were you personally rating individual posters but merely who you meant by the 'we' in "although we have generally be pleased with the quality of the posting in here, despite how this Winter has behaved).

And just one additional note I'm afraid I have no idea why the behavior of the winter should impact the quality of posts

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to know what the UKMO would produce between day 4 and 5.

It develops a shortwave as it edges east se . What happens on the northern flank of that .

Rain or snow ? The 850s aren’t particularly cold around -4 , but we don’t get the other parameters with the output so hard to call .

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hard to know what the UKMO would produce between day 4 and 5.

It develops a shortwave as it edges east se . What happens on the northern flank of that .

Rain or snow ? The 850s aren’t particularly cold around -4 , but we don’t get the other parameters with the output so hard to call .

At least it keeps us snow enthusiasts interested!!gfs and ukmo are cold for pretty much the rest of next week with cold and snow chances!!

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Huge difference between the UKMO and the ECM/GFS for the UK between day 4 and 5 .

The former has that developing shortwave tracking east se , the latter two nothing of note .

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Zak, that's about 6th run on the trot now, that's shown decent taste of Spring around 11th, long way off but definitely a trend, probably downgrade as 18 degrees too good to be true, but with what we've been through, I'll settle for anything dry with high pressure even if only 10 degrees

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking much further ahead, as I mentioned earlier regarding the north / south split on the GEFS 6z mean, if anything the 12z mean is even more bullish about an improvement to drier calmer conditions, at least across Southern U.K. in the run up to and including the mid March period so perhaps there’s light at the end of the tunnel for flood affected areas.

42D6365E-D2CA-442A-BC8F-BF251314167C.thumb.png.4e7541e0972c016b12c01f90fb482bf6.png7D00EE45-80E9-4053-BB42-BCCB05635BCB.thumb.png.04b174bc18a1389c3eb3bf01741fb59d.pngC48B9B5D-78A8-4E0E-AA62-4286FF2CCD9F.thumb.png.c421de82a7216610c7708c91cb66b1d7.pngC88C8785-06F3-4F6F-B0C3-C5B8BB8F0CE4.thumb.png.89baa6934a1296d8b6c71bf1d79aad3f.png2BD1624D-D91A-4D08-A412-2161826BCBC3.thumb.png.7e55c7682f1388175827e5b43bb0bd21.png580B6C5F-C44C-4AD8-A279-FC07FD1BD767.thumb.png.3e3080243138eedb5e32262ac1704e72.png

 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Zak, that's about 6th run on the trot now, that's shown decent taste of Spring around 11th, long way off but definitely a trend, probably downgrade as 18 degrees too good to be true, but with what we've been through, I'll settle for anything dry with high pressure even if only 10 degrees

Wow - 6! Pretty impressive.

I probably don't think it will reach 18c either - maybe around 15-16c at their highest.

Let's just hope it doesn't downgrade. Considering the conditions that have been present this February and this half of winter, they've been terrible! And as @JON SNOW says above, we should hope that there's light at the end of the tunnel.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Good to see signs of something settled in the medium term. Can’t wait to feel the warmth of the sun now. I’ll be shedding no tears as the last few hours of winter 19/20 play out.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Superb post @Mike Poole what he says as still got me a tad interested! A major warming of such a strong vortex if it was to happen by mid March could still bring a potent wintry blast come months end! On the other hand it, if it were to materialise..... Well, think delayed spring, and early summer!! GFS still hinting at more settled conditions beyond next week!! Personally, I'm not so sure!! The ECM op still seems keen to keep us unsettled, the mean is better, but far from certain. Anyway I'm not done with this snow chase just yet... Call me thick skinned or plain bloody stupid, but I still feel we have a chance of some kind of vortex disruption pretty soon.. 

Regarding Djdazzle post above about shedding no tears!!! I'm crying me eyes up, but I've put it down to early onset hay-fever... ?

 

 

graphe0_00_303_95___.png

graphe1_00_303_95___.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

We could of course end up with a spring/summer like 2014 following that horrendous winter. March transitioned nicely and April was homogenously warm, although May was unsettled. Presumably it’s possible to have a monster PV that just waves through spring and doesn’t go to the loo all over the mid latitudes following season’s end.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon showing some serious snow next Thurs! 

9B7F62A0-130E-4D40-AA11-852FF6512943.png

40180828-48E6-4691-9B39-28F1EE99DFE8.png

D4861B66-9E38-4003-BAD9-E0E99700BA4F.png

The GFS doesn’t want to know and the ECM is also not interested . So it’s a stand off at present . Quite unusual to see that sort of divergence at this range , normally it’s a case of where this type of shortwave will track rather than whether it appears at all .

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon showing some serious snow next Thurs! 

9B7F62A0-130E-4D40-AA11-852FF6512943.png

40180828-48E6-4691-9B39-28F1EE99DFE8.png

D4861B66-9E38-4003-BAD9-E0E99700BA4F.png

Indeed it is ?

Whether it will verify is uncertain.

icon.png

icon0.png

icon1.png

icon2.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS doesn’t want to know and the ECM is also not interested . So it’s a stand off at present . Quite unusual to see that sort of divergence at this range , normally it’s a case of where this type of shortwave will track rather than whether it appears at all .

Is the low there on the gfs but just slightly flatter or is it not there what so ever!!?

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is the low there on the gfs but just slightly flatter or is it not there what so ever!!?

On closer inspection the GFS has a shortwave but it’s very weak and heads se but the differences start earlier by day 3 .

The ICON and UKMO phase a bundle of shortwave energy upstream into one system . The GFS has several shortwaves . The same with the ECM . It’s a real mess in the mid Atlantic ! The UKMO fax chart for day 4 and 5 goes with the UKMO raw output . The day 5 looks very similar to the ICON .

Even if the UKMO is correct it’s still marginal. It’s been like pulling teeth this winter for the UK to get anything that’s not been marginal .

Hopefully next winter we can do away with marginal !

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...