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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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31 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Unfortunately 12z EPS mean has backed away from showing a strong signal for height rises northeastwards across the UK days 10-15, with upper troughing closer to the NW. 12z GEFS still hanging on to the drier more settled idea after the weekend of 7/8th March.

12z EPS days 10-15

 

12z GEFS days 10-15

 

 

EPS still looks fairly dry for the South though, particularly the SE - still nearly 560 heights and a visible ridge in the contours.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It looks like just running east . Of course if there was decent cold over the continent then the dive se would bring that air into play with lower dew points and drier air .

Its a shame these set ups didn’t appear a few weeks ago , so marginal but just that bit earlier could have made a difference .

Just about cold enough in GEM day 5 /6 definitely a chance of one or two more marginal events next week

A37BE2F9-8B1F-470D-8BFD-73514F778A22.png

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Long shot in the modelling world but Day 10+ on GFS looks great if you're after warmer, drier, calmer, spring-like weather. Mid to high teens widely across the country, any rain confined to N/NW Scotland.

Temperature:

image.thumb.png.db5830e5c5606a88f68cb4ddea43c0f3.pngimage.thumb.png.68de1d790c18e3e6f9eb2458f12d5ded.pngimage.thumb.png.8ad6f8109a05c4102b2a508b0af3c4af.pngimage.thumb.png.8988eeaf790e12fd388b75d544631a4d.png

Pressure:

image.thumb.png.9e97ba3f0f722fe5b71c6b27ceb78287.pngimage.thumb.png.6a97cd2ecde95e97dbebd239f37c756a.pngimage.thumb.png.2bb7172b87b617fc4efc1a70026d4de7.pngimage.thumb.png.dbca101c859d009d207769f92d432b33.png

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The GFS op still consistent with the anomalous heights close to the UK and it has dragged most of its members in that direction, op:

anim_pfg4.gifPressure>graphe4_1000_300_152___.thumb.png.aed24471db297993a9ccb696c54fc7d6.png

That is a solid trend. Temps vary due to the exact location of the core heights but both the control and op now hinting at some high uppers with support:

graphe3_1000_300_152___.thumb.png.1fd565e6dac33d0c450ffc0035e433fd.png

Early days to be confident of either the solution or some very mild weather. With the Feb CET likely to be around 2.7c above average another warm month would not be going against the grain, although the first week of March may be slightly cooler than average.

The ECM model is still not on board though I get the impression it is moving ever so slightly in that direction. GEM is not on board either. So still low confidence in the GFS solution post D8.

The next 7-days a relenting of the rain intensity for most:

168-777UK.thumb.gif.39c96645185e05fb3014efa8ef805756.gif  anim_pii3.gif

Chilly feeling week ahead with some frosts as we get three mini-ridges moving through (ECM agrees) after Jorge moves away.

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@Zak M That was a very interesting and informative post regarding these next couple of days. Well put. Thank you. ?

In fact, even this morning there’s quite a lot of great posts (although we have generally be pleased with the quality of the posting in here, despite how this Winter has behaved).

As much as I would love to still see a good snowfall - the models for the next few days continuing with its chilly and unsettled theme with a possible wintry mix at times - it would be nice just to see things dry out. And have that dude, the Azores High, come to the rescue and bring something warmer, too. ?

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9 hours ago, Zak M said:

Storm Jorge is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain today.

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Saturday morning

On Saturday morning, bands of persistent rain will be present across Wales, SW England, and some parts of northern England and Scotland. This band of rain will include some heavy bursts. The main problem is that it has been a very wet February this year and this rain is falling over saturated ground, so it's not good news - especially for the areas that have been affected or have almost been affected by flooding. Parts of eastern England won't see this band of rain until 6:00.

Also, within the band of heavy, persistent rain, some squally winds will form within. This could cause some strong wind gusts for a short period of time and very heavy rainfall for a short period of time. In Northern Ireland, the band of rain should have passed through in the very late hours of Friday and perhaps the early hours of Saturday.

It will be quite a mild morning across the British Isles, with temperatures in the south ranging from 8-12c, and ranging from 5-11c in the north. The band of rain that will be sweeping through is a cold front and places like Northern Ireland that the heavy rain has already passed over will bring colder temperatures and a chillier morning than most parts of the British Isles.

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Saturday afternoon

On Saturday afternoon, the band of rain that is supposed to pass through the British Isles would have cleared now, meaning that the cold front will bring colder air to the UK. Over the hills of Scotland, where some parts of the rain clear, some sleet or snow is possible. 

Along with the colder air, showers will start to dig in from the west. These showers could be heavy, perhaps accompanied with hail, and could merge to bring longer spells of rain. Some sleet or snow is also possible over places like northern England and Scotland. 

This time period is also where the wind starts to become an issue. The wind will start to gradually ramp up during Saturday afternoon, mainly across western England, the NW, and the far north, where the Met Office have warnings in place. 40-60mph gusts on coasts is possible, along with 30-40mph gusts possible inland.

Also, another part of rain from Storm Jorge will start to move in across Ireland and Northern Ireland. This rain could include some heavy bursts. It also has the chance of producing some snow, mainly over higher ground, but there's a tiny chance that you could see the odd snowflake on lower ground. Later in the afternoon, it starts to arrive in NW England and Scotland, where snow accumulations are possible, mainly over higher ground.

The temperatures in the afternoon will gradually start to drop from the cold front that moved in. So the afternoon temperatures in the south should range from 5-9c, and in the north, they should range from 1-6c. Because of the strong, bitter winds, it will feel like a few degrees colder than the actual temperatures.

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Saturday evening

On Saturday evening, the rain will still continue over Northern Ireland and Scotland, with some heavy bursts possible, and perhaps with the chance of seeing some sleet or snow falling, mainly over higher ground. Later in the evening, some of the bands of rain will also start to crawl into places like northern England, with again some heavy bursts possible, and the chance of seeing some sleet or snow falling over higher ground.

Elsewhere, showers will continue over parts of Wales and southern England. The showers will be more frequent in the SW. These showers are most likely to die out or lose their intensity when it comes in contact with land due to the lower temperatures on the land. However, if you catch a shower, it still could be heavy, with hail mixed in and the showers could merge into longer spells of rain.

It still could be a windy evening across the north and north west, with some strong wind gusts possible, perhaps not as strong as they were in the afternoon.

The temperatures won't drop too much from the afternoon onwards, with temperatures in the south ranging from 3-7c, and ranging from 0-5c in the north. Along with the strong wind gusts, it will feel a lot colder than the actual temperatures.

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Enjoy your Saturday! :hi:

(I'm gonna do more of these as I enjoy making these when I'm bored!)

Zak, is there a reason why now and 24hour outlooks are posted in here and not the nowcasting thread. We have so often moaned about 10day models, but surely  (as Knocker does with his post) in the short 24hrange we are most nowcasting rather than Model Outlook? The thread looses its focus with posts about rainfall/snowfall for the short range, rather than 3-5 day outlook. 
Mods, as you are the folks that control this, is a today summary a model outlook item, given the Spirit and longstanding ground rules of this thread, if so, I’ll be quiet.

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Still a chance of some snow in the south on Monday morning. Temps look similar to those on Thursday so perhaps similar areas affected? Snow on high ground eg chilterns and sleet low down? 

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The latest GFS run is still suggesting some warmth coming from high pressure dominating the UK on day 12 onwards!

Day 12: warm.thumb.png.2bda807523bbea959ef001c041aa3804.png

Day 13: warm0.thumb.png.029b8c5084bf26fa6627e1e8d63c7d4e.png

Day 14: warm1.thumb.png.03cbb0a6d33acbd1298cb3727717ca3e.png

Day 15: warm2.thumb.png.4b50817add3d5029527e01f7e51a6425.png

Edited by Zak M
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Again another settled FI run from the GFS:

anim_qpw1.gif

Also another with some very warm uppers and mild temps, a snapshot:

gfseu-9-294.thumb.png.40178d25caa878930d463dbfdd84023a.png

Looking lovely Springlike spell if it verifies.

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Just now, johnholmes said:

You have a point but maybe the new folk who are trying to understand what the models show will find this type of post a real help in their understanding. It is after all the model thread? Just my take on things.

Fair point, I think then @Knocker get your indepth posts back in here, for all to share the knowledge..

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29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hold your horses there!! Before we all start ordering our beach towels and sun cream from amazon, there are other options on those 6z ensembles!! It ain't over till I say so folks... ?

 

That just makes my March CET guess more difficult! ?

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The 500 mb anomaly charts

Certainly changes showing on all 3 that suggest there may be a decrease in the number of deep surface lows and thus rainfall totals. Not entirely clear on this as the atlantic flow is still predicted to remain quite strong. All 3 do not show a signal for marked warmth for the uk though!  2 suggest a trough into Europe with building heights in the atlantic, one (ec) seems a bit less keen on this. Only noaa appears to have the idea of some significant height build that could lead to a real reduction in the number of deepish lows and largish rainfall totals of the past few weeks?

Time, as always, may show a clearer picture.

I’ll keep watching and pop another set of maps up in 3-4 days!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Still a chance of some snow in the south on Monday morning. Temps look similar to those on Thursday so perhaps similar areas affected? Snow on high ground eg chilterns and sleet low down? 

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Euro4 & Hirlam etc also showing snow for the south / south east on Monday morning. 

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8174A754-8CB5-48C8-8CA8-18226B5ED737.jpeg

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If this pulls off, then I'm going to name this event 'Thursday 27th 2' as the band of rain tracks over the SE and dumps the sleet and snow in almost the exact same places as last Thursday!

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Just now, Zak M said:

If this pulls off, then I'm going to name this event 'Thursday 27th 2' as the band of rain tracks over the SE and dumps the sleet and snow in almost the exact same places as last Thursday!

Or you could name it Slushfest 100 of the last decade V Snowfests hardly any (about 5)

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28 minutes ago, Zak M said:

If this pulls off, then I'm going to name this event 'Thursday 27th 2' as the band of rain tracks over the SE and dumps the sleet and snow in almost the exact same places as last Thursday!

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I hope it bloody doesn't as on the east kent coast we saw absolutely nothing but rain 

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