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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

I'm sure those affected by flooding will welcome 'boring' high pressure!

I think the chances for lowland snow south of Scotland look like receding through next week anyway. Even Wednesday's low looks like a mostly rain event on northern flank for now. 

Yes, there are no ensemble GEFS runs that give that now right out past D10 and only about 3 even in FI.

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately - it gets very boring after that though - just what we don't want.

image.thumb.png.4f43580397a038ec73f7a3bc30ab1ec6.png

After the miserable wet winter we have had I think many including myself would very much welcome a chart like that. 

This winter if it can be called that is done,  time to move on imo.  From a cold perspective it's been a complete and utter waste of time ,a winter to forget. 

Let spring move in and move on.

 

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1 minute ago, JON SNOW said:

I’m sure all those in the flood hit areas of the U.K. and pretty much everyone else will be hoping March turns into something like the longer term GEFS 6z mean is showing..well I do anyway!!?

F87E3384-371D-4FDE-889F-3CE55B68DD10.thumb.png.fba6959e996732db238dcf88a0a44fc4.pngACCD8DC0-6E62-45D0-A7E9-249ABFE42583.thumb.png.eadb70f313a7de0a04a038a49b8cd332.png6502EE14-40AB-44DA-84FB-9747835EDBDA.thumb.png.6b3d584bbb237eb88ef639dbb1eba8c4.png605C5A37-130F-4D62-8776-6A38C46AD9DC.thumb.png.a030031718df86c377e98937ffa17667.png8F71F1E9-2A00-4CD4-888C-ACD0A4690EFB.thumb.png.37ac85746ff0c741d74bb3341d9489d9.png

 

High Pressure is really getting on the march over the UK on that ensemble mean next month! ?

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4 hours ago, Nick F said:

I'm sure those affected by flooding will welcome 'boring' high pressure!

I think the chances for lowland snow south of Scotland look like receding through next week anyway. Even Wednesday's low looks like a mostly rain event on northern flank for now. 

farmers in particular (and us gardeners lol) will welcome dry.

NOAA charts heading in the right direction too, towards mid month.

 

814day.03.gif

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Stone the crows folks I'm really struggling to find a decent cold solution today. There are at last some signs of high pressure towards mid March, and being as I only live 12 miles from the seven and have seen at first hand the devastation those rising river levels have caused to the local community...... Well, that can be only a good thing! There are a couple of GFS ens that interest me, one a direct Ntly, and then we have the good old CFS showing some wonderful height rises come the final 3rd of March!!! Well it wouldn't be a major suprise if it came off... Would it.... Whatever your doing.... Try and stay dry.. ?

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Another good run from the GFS op:

anim_tic7.gif

HP building in. Warm uppers on this run as well, have to go to N Africa to get uppers like this in our sector:

gfseu-1-306.thumb.png.14f0f42b0e1846dcaf430523af7b7725.png

Of course, JFF, that core of heights could meander east or west and that would make changes to the UK outcome viz temps and conditions. But hopeful of some dry and warmer conditions very soon.

Edited by IDO
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I remain hopeful we will get a chance to dry out as we go deeper into March, the signs are encouraging from the GEFS 12z mean & some perturbations this evening.

A41A8A8A-9D07-4C0E-80E5-ED1920F66F26.thumb.png.3f2a52ee68919bb200c7c134f49081e7.png1751159D-1CD9-47AF-8236-302BB1E8D926.thumb.png.54a2a2fb0ef986d5726fb100c99f84a0.png79358AED-DED4-4BA3-9E02-FF23FAD64F7D.thumb.png.1ece38ebebaa177a4dabb353f6e4931c.png2A0D21AC-C980-409D-BC99-0E9560654E86.thumb.png.c8c54662d000b5b1562d3e31bcf851ab.png534539F4-2888-428F-B0C6-5A45D27DF15B.thumb.png.e9b8bd56f98e8d3ea7ef424d215edda2.png450C8583-7F60-4BE3-A82D-CDAA6A7665A0.thumb.png.857d9e6c6e5ed2a42313ba8b960efd7b.png2BEA263A-FD8A-4904-AA86-0503989A9420.thumb.png.f9e246a5491c9bd857aea2402b789d74.pngD47BE980-4607-49DC-B80F-CCBE5FDBE10A.thumb.png.2751ffcb8032aad4ccc56cf300e7a34c.png183BD47B-9338-4295-A0C7-894C8790CB84.thumb.png.6d73a47c006daecbb65988f84e0fbf05.png

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Very nice!:yahoo:

T+231: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+291: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+330: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And even a potential sting-in-the-tail? :oldgood:

After the ‘mild’ and very stormy and wet Jan and Feb that looks pretty nice.  I have an inkling the GFS is onto something with regards to the HP building in but suspect it’ll be fairly chilly with some cold nights.  The movement and positioning would have big differences, but dry would be rather niece for a start

 

BFTP

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

Another good run from the GFS op:

anim_tic7.gif

HP building in. Warm uppers on this run as well, have to go to N Africa to get uppers like this in our sector:

gfseu-1-306.thumb.png.14f0f42b0e1846dcaf430523af7b7725.png

Of course, JFF, that core of heights could meander east or west and that would make changes to the UK outcome viz temps and conditions. But hopeful of some dry and warmer conditions very soon.

Why is it a good run???

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12 minutes ago, Always a red said:

Why is it a good run???

For those in the flood hit regions, for the outdoors workers who are soaked to the skin, for enjoying a brisk walk without the risk of being blown or washed away, for maybe some sunshine to brighten up the days, or just for a change from the gloomy rain fest.

In any case as I said, JFF ATM as ECM not quite in the same ball park, D10:

ECM322462840_ECE1-240(1).thumb.gif.8a33193652c2d952751f107c35a681d6.gifGFSgfseu-0-240.thumb.png.429d6b2d692b79181e03b40454ef8c59.png

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ECM is terrible tonight - yet more wind and rain right out to day 10.

Thankfully an outlier:

image.thumb.png.68d5d23c59956e37dae7de3e20374b82.png


GFS keeps going with strong high pressure - lets hope that prevails.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is terrible tonight - yet more wind and rain right out to day 10.

GFS keeps going with strong high pressure - lets hope that prevails.

Whatever any of us "hope" is of course entirely immaterial.

GEM isn't interested in settling the weather up to T+240 and looking through the 12Z GEFS it's certainly strongly anticyclonic on the OP but Control is different and the Ensembles are all over the place with some cold options for those who like that sort of thing.

ECM 12Z isn't interested in HP building in as you say and the signal for that pressure build next weekend doesn't look as strong tonight as it did last evening.

I can see nothing in the stratosphere to help us though the CFS once again posits the PV relocating to Siberia later next month and heights building into Greenland.

For now, it seems "as you were" with a week of unsettled mobile westerlies with some potent secondary LP systems for the south and none too warm with 850s mostly below zero for much of the week. 

 

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Unfortunately 12z EPS mean has backed away from showing a strong signal for height rises northeastwards across the UK days 10-15, with upper troughing closer to the NW. 12z GEFS still hanging on to the drier more settled idea after the weekend of 7/8th March.

12z EPS days 10-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4187200.thumb.png.107fa9d7969deccfcd966d53bb6c6034.png

12z GEFS days 10-15

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4187200.thumb.png.f6ee1cd90763d2b7e438e0596a825cd6.png

 

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The GFS has the same shortwave crossing the south as the ECM .

It shows some snow on the back edge , not a strong signal but a little surprising . And the track of that shortwave could still change .

There have in the past been these surprise type events . One of the most noteworthy from a personal viewpoint was living in Kingston , January 6th 1994 .

That was amazing and came out of nowhere and not in any forecast .

The GFS also has a second shortwave crossing a bit further north around day 5 , that has another weak signal for snow on the back edge .

Edited by nick sussex
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS has the same shortwave crossing the south as the ECM .

It shows some snow on the back edge , not a strong signal but a little surprising . And the track of that shortwave could still change .

There have in the past been these surprise type events . One of the most noteworthy from a personal viewpoint was living in Kingston , January 6th 1994 .

That was amazing and came out of nowhere and not in any forecast .

Remember that very well.  Was living near Woking at the time and totally unexpected!  I think some areas like Guildford, Farnham and Camberley had about 6 inches of snow from that event!

Edited by Don
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS has the same shortwave crossing the south as the ECM .

It shows some snow on the back edge , not a strong signal but a little surprising . And the track of that shortwave could still change .

There have in the past been these surprise type events . One of the most noteworthy from a personal viewpoint was living in Kingston , January 6th 1994 .

That was amazing and came out of nowhere and not in any forecast .

Hi nick does the gfs look same as this mornings run with low pressures diving south east like ukmo did between 120 and 144 hours or has it moved towards the flatter 00z ecm?

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hi nick does the gfs look same as this mornings run with low pressures diving south east like ukmo did between 120 and 144 hours or has it moved towards the flatter 00z ecm?

It looks like just running east . Of course if there was decent cold over the continent then the dive se would bring that air into play with lower dew points and drier air .

Its a shame these set ups didn’t appear a few weeks ago , so marginal but just that bit earlier could have made a difference .

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