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Model output discussion 02/02/20

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO & GEM very interesting overnight...

 

Add in ECM

image.thumb.png.ef567de839feaee7e03a95ddfe646538.png

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Add in ECM

image.thumb.png.ef567de839feaee7e03a95ddfe646538.png

And not in lala land! Just need some colder air over us compared with today for these low to engage with.

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The Gfs 0z operational in low res brings an early taste of spring, imagine how hot this would be in summer with these charts!?

A44DEC7A-4B89-4104-BDE4-4ADF5635D41F.thumb.png.a84840087016dc45a8e648b413941d64.png100128BD-8061-47FB-B032-FB13C218602C.thumb.png.a3efa353033adf2fc3578a6ee1dfda99.png5EB4196A-E356-435A-B48E-F8153A49B459.thumb.png.8010806eb4b36ad519f7b4349816f92d.png3090B55A-7F2A-4501-92B7-26D2ED1CB7F9.thumb.png.869d1d0f804fa05f3d4d96112761f17b.png

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5 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

And not in lala land! Just need some colder air over us compared with today for these low to engage with.

Still a bit too mobile, need a more stationary pattern to hold the block in place.

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No high confidence but the GFS after D8 would bring settled and eventually a milder flow for a week or so:

anim_dba8.gif  D16 gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.16653456e46f2ebf8a561b5cb02d6ecc.png

It has been hinting at something like this is one form or other for some days so hope springs eternal, though that is all it is ATM!

As for ECM at T144, that is one chart and needs to be put in context and if you watch that wedge, it moves from Iceland in the westerly flow towards Russia, which has been the signal for most of the runs with it showing:

anim_gqu7.gif

Nothing to suggest any change in the zonal flow over the UK for the next 10-days on the ECM and not that cold either.

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35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still a bit too mobile, need a more stationary pattern to hold the block in place.

Unfortunately correct, the wedge which was, and is still due to make a fleeting appearance to the north of the uk is quickly swept aside eastwards (as illustrated above)...it may look close on that ecm run but in terms of the overall pattern it has no chance. Best bet at the moment looks to be the azores high ridging north and east post week 2 March which is what the gfs has been hinting at for some days now, and to be fair so have the Met. I think by mid march, most will be happy with that, particularly those in the midlands who live by the severn! 

Edited by KTtom
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Seconds out...Round 2!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png:yahoo:

A good week for coldies!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And, lastly, at T+357...good things come to those that wait?:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

PS: Our current sleet is trying to turn into snow!:clap:

Edited by General Cluster
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iconeu-0-120.png?27-06

Icon playing around with another southerly tracking low also a wedge of height to the north east. Something that always is slower to move than originally modelled. 

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Morning all ?

It certainly seems as though the mobile unsettled pattern is to be with us as we go in to the first week of March with any number of secondary LP systems heading across the south exacerbating rainfall issues.

Moving to the end of next week, I've picked up a few charts for Saturday March 7th (T+216 on the 00Z suite):

ECM:

ECM1-216.GIF?27-12

A NE'ly for the SE? Well, a faint one perhaps.

GEM:

gem-0-216.png?00

A ridge across much of the British Isles settling the weather.

GFS OP (00Z)::

gfs-0-216.png

A stronger ridge as cells of HP from the Azores ridge NE.

GFS Control (00Z):

gens-0-1-216.png

Very different with the unsettled theme very much in charge.

I see no warming of any kind in the stratosphere to promote amplification so the best it will be is a transient tropospheric response and while the OP evolution into FI on the 00Z hints at spring we've been here before with the GFS which seems to "default" back to a zonal pattern in the OP. There's huge variety in the Ensembles including many much colder options.

The monthly CFS 00Z run hints at a vortex displacement to Siberia in mid March but I struggle to see why this should happen. The form horse looks to be a continuation of the unsettled mobile westerly theme as IDO suggests but the bigger question for me is whether the near-record zonal wind speeds will fade away gradually or less gradually. The former would suggest the pattern continuing for a while but with the jet slowly easing back north as spring proceeds. The latter, a collapse in zonal wind speeds possibly via a strong final warming, offers the possibility for amplification and strong northern blocking - again, not unusual in April and May as we've seen in years past.

What I suspect may happen is we will see pulses of weakening and re-strengthening during March and April. During the weaker periods, warmer air will get into the higher latitudes and colder air will escape south but that will in turn trigger a feedback response so the colder air re-asserts but in a weaker form. Eventually, by early May, as we know, the PV is pretty much dissipated for the season but the manner of its departure can have consequences for the northern hemisphere summer.

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06z GFS has front on Saturday turning to snow on the back edge with wintry showers following behind 

664A950B-F41E-4412-BC49-B7E77D797382.gif

9BED27BF-0B1F-4403-B2D0-A25EC1198350.gif

4F009DCA-8709-4DA4-96B2-3814B7A8C3B7.gif

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Congratulations to those who got snow this week.

Looking into March ... the ECM clusters are trying to get somewhere more settled, but we've been down this road before and seen settled FI patterns collapse quite easily.

D8-D10 - the wise money is still for a continuation of stormy weather approaching the UK from time to time, but some subtle differences - less generalised intensity of the N Atlantic trough may allow for some variations, with a reasonable possibility of a more substantial cut-off trough heading to Europe.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_204.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_240.

D12-D15 - general indications are that heights to the east will start to force the Atlantic back (or a weaker Atlantic will allow heights to the east to regress - it's one of the two!!) - but a) this may be a slow process and b) it's more likely to lead to a flow from the south/west than a flow from the north/east, though the latter option is possible. A kind of "spring or bust" scenario. But perhaps most importantly c) we'll probably start to dry-up ?

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_312. ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_360.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Congratulations to those who got snow this week.

Looking into March ... the ECM clusters are trying to get somewhere more settled, but we've been down this road before and seen settled FI patterns collapse quite easily.

D8-D10 - the wise money is still for a continuation of stormy weather approaching the UK from time to time, but some subtle differences - less generalised intensity of the N Atlantic trough may allow for some variations, with a reasonable possibility of a more substantial cut-off trough heading to Europe. 

D12-D15 - general indications are that heights to the east will start to force the Atlantic back (or a weaker Atlantic will allow heights to the east to regress - it's one of the two!!) - but a) this may be a slow process and b) it's more likely to lead to a flow from the south/west than a flow from the north/east, though the latter option is possible. A kind of "spring or bust" scenario. But perhaps most importantly c) we'll probably start to dry-up ?

 

(Snipped for ease).

I'm also sceptical of the GFS FI "reset" or "Azores Ridge building in" options. The 00Z Ensembles in FI were even more all over the shop than usual with both very cold and warmer options. The question is whether residual strength in the northern arm of the jet will keep blocking to kid-latitude with HP centred over or close to the British Isles. I see no prospect of a Greenland HP but Scandinavia is different and it's possible to argue as the PV weakens (naturally) the opportunity for it to become dislodged a fraction further west to enable ridging into Scandinavia as the Atlantic amplifies will exist.

I think you've called it pretty well - the crucial time frame for now seems to be the weekend of 7th-8th in terms of establishing a variation to the current pattern.

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Congratulations to those who got snow this week.

Looking into March ... the ECM clusters are trying to get somewhere more settled, but we've been down this road before and seen settled FI patterns collapse quite easily.

D8-D10 - the wise money is still for a continuation of stormy weather approaching the UK from time to time, but some subtle differences - less generalised intensity of the N Atlantic trough may allow for some variations, with a reasonable possibility of a more substantial cut-off trough heading to Europe.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_204.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_240.

D12-D15 - general indications are that heights to the east will start to force the Atlantic back (or a weaker Atlantic will allow heights to the east to regress - it's one of the two!!) - but a) this may be a slow process and b) it's more likely to lead to a flow from the south/west than a flow from the north/east, though the latter option is possible. A kind of "spring or bust" scenario. But perhaps most importantly c) we'll probably start to dry-up ?

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_312. ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022700_360.

But, nevertheless, a few days' sunshine & temps in the mid to high teens, would be wonderful, for preparing the ground for planting...:oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Problems at day 10..

GFS has pressure around 1030mb in the south:

image.thumb.png.685c8242fac9dbf02573d51eea888de2.png

Top end ECM run in ensembles doesn't go above 1012mb:

image.thumb.png.737b18c9a91e2f9c1f456bc8c3abb5a9.png

High uncertainty incoming!

Edited by mb018538
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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Problems at day 10..

GFS has pressure around 1030mb in the south:

image.thumb.png.685c8242fac9dbf02573d51eea888de2.png

Top end ECM run in ensembles doesn't go above 1012mb:

image.thumb.png.737b18c9a91e2f9c1f456bc8c3abb5a9.png

High uncertainty incoming!

The GFS 06z op has an upper low over Iberia and that props up higher pressure. At D10 those sort of features should be given low credence and the mean would be a better choice. D10:

D10 mean>gens-21-1-240.thumb.png.b9d6fc59b4d0c0aed247b128d813a948.pngD16 mean>1113803908_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.4d971c0c8a4a943c57a2ccb4f429da37.png

This does suggest the current GFS route of heights building a bit further north as the tPV relents to our NE on its move to the core being in Siberia is viable:

Mean d10-d16> anim_zkr8.gif

FWIW this is a trend, but JFF as FI it is.

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

The GFS 06z op has an upper low over Iberia and that props up higher pressure. At D10 those sort of features should be given low credence and the mean would be a better choice. D10:

D10 mean>gens-21-1-240.thumb.png.b9d6fc59b4d0c0aed247b128d813a948.pngD16 mean>1113803908_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.4d971c0c8a4a943c57a2ccb4f429da37.png

This does suggest the current GFS route of heights building a bit further north as the tPV relents to our NE on its move to the core being in Siberia is viable:

Mean d10-d16> anim_zkr8.gif

FWIW this is a trend, but JFF as FI it is.

Feels like you are really biased for milder solutions, always these mean charts to prove that it looks mild while in reality we are actually looking at one of the coldest periods for this winter season ( and early spring).

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Well the ICON is not far off a battle ground scenario,a few more tweaks west we hope.

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.274a5debdc376860d2f7b597333bf4e5.pngiconnh-1-144.thumb.png.c951cca757cdabc12d72a5f088df277f.png

lets see what the rest of the 12z suits show.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

icon-0-144.png?27-12icon-1-144.png?27-12

A Slight tweak west could lead to a battle ground situation over the UK

NO, what you need is a tweak SE from the incoming LP. 

More of a slider which would allow the HP time to build - it' s stronger than on the ECM this morning but the net effect so far is the same. 

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gfs-0-132.png?12

Another southerly tracking low from the GFS Vs UKM which has a more of a wedge

Edited by frosty ground

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10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-132.png?12

Another southerly tracking low from the GFS Vs UKM which has a more of a wedge

Is ukmo looking good?

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