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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM has around an inch of snow accumulation for Leicester. I tend to be wary of these precip forecasts though . These Channel Lows can throw up surprises . In a good or bad way ! I think it’s now a case of just seeing what happens .

It looks further north already compared to euro4?!!!

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What does it have for me?

Hi Feb . This is a good link . You can get all ECM ops and all of its ensemble members . Loads of parameters to choose from including snow accumulations .

Just go to weather.us

 

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Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

anim_wsx7.gif

This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hi Feb . This is a good link . You can get all ECM ops and all of its ensemble members . Loads of parameters to choose from including snow accumulations .

Just go to weather.us

 

Oh right - yes i know that one - problem is they are massively exaggerated, i have seen 4-6 inches countless times over my location at T24 or T48 in the last 2 or 3 years on that site on the ECM, in reality it has only come true once and that was accumulated over the course of 2 days during the 2018 Easterly, Nick L always used to post up the proper charts he gets via his Job and they were always much less.

Thanks anyway though.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh right - yes i know that one - problem is they are massively exaggerated, i have seen 4-6 inches countless times over my location at T24 or T48 in the last 2 or 3 years on that site on the ECM, in reality it has only come true once and that was accumulated over the course of 2 days during the 2018 Easterly, Nick L always used to post up the proper charts he gets via his Job and they were always much less.

Thanks anyway though.

To be honest Feb I take any precip forecast with a huge pinch of salt . And with this type of set up even more so . 

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Just now, nick sussex said:

To be honest Feb I take any precip forecast with a huge pinch of salt . And with this type of set up even more so . 

Quite- because you cannot possibly predict where the low will track to the nearest mile, so specific location accumulation forecasts are in chocolate fireguard territory due to the area of highest PPN intensity being out and add in marginality and your really ferked in terms of accurate predictions, i usually go on what usually happens in my location under a specific setup and lately these PPN charts in these polar NW flows have always over estimated snow for me.

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The Icon 18 hrs run is already wrong with the extent of the precip !

Current radar returns have the precip already heavier and further north than its forecast .

That doesn’t necessarily mean the low is further north , the extent of precip from this type of low isn’t an exact science .

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Icon 18 hrs run is already wrong with the extent of the precip !

Current radar returns have the precip already heavier and further north than its forecast .

That doesn’t necessarily mean the low is further north , the extent of precip from this type of low isn’t an exact science .

Hmmm so if the band is already further north compared to where it should be shouldnt that mean the low is slightly further north as well then?

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Just now, shaky said:

Hmmm so if the band is already further north compared to where it should be shouldnt that mean the low is slightly further north as well then?

No not necessarily. The arc of precip associated with the low could be the issue. 

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23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

anim_wsx7.gif

This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

Its certainly showing some interesting accum.  I think I buy into the precip though.  

 

1884034587_Screenshot2020-02-26at21_23_54.thumb.png.3ad885b6842b0fbefae45dcd13e3c7c0.png

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25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

anim_wsx7.gif

This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

Well, I will be driving straight into that tomorrow morning.  Sorry snow, if you ain't coming to me, I'm coming to you! ?

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1 minute ago, Zak M said:

The GEM certainly highlights some areas of interest:

gem.png

gem0.png

gem1.png

Slightly better for those south of the M4, too.

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I think there is a chance of evaporative cooling on this system in a few places. Be prepared for surprises. Models dont pick up on this very well unfortunately. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

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                                12Z                                                        18Z

overview_20200226_12_018.thumb.jpg.225c0325f6bebb5cd35c0acdbb1d13ff.jpg overview_20200226_18_012.thumb.jpg.bf81ff38e2fbd6f1421a135e1088221f.jpg
Of course, usual caveats apply in regards to precip-type charts.

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

                                12Z                                                        18Z

overview_20200226_12_018.thumb.jpg.225c0325f6bebb5cd35c0acdbb1d13ff.jpg overview_20200226_18_012.thumb.jpg.bf81ff38e2fbd6f1421a135e1088221f.jpg
Of course, usual caveats apply in regards to precip-type charts.

Hmm, the 18z is a bit of a killjoy!  Not to say 12z is wrong but theoretically the 18z should be closer to the mark given the time frame?

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18z HIRLAM is in line with what the METO were forecasting from about lunchtime today.  They downgraded from heavy snow in the Notts - Peterborough - London - Oxford area to sleet and it remains as such.  

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Beanz said:

18z HIRLAM is in line with what the METO were forecasting from about lunchtime today.  They downgraded from heavy snow in the Notts - Peterborough - London - Oxford area to sleet and it remains as such.  

 

 

Just not cold enough at the end of the day?!

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