Model output discussion 02/02/20

[Methuselah]

Good morning, folks.

Well, superstorm or no superstorm, next Monday looks decidedly wild!

    

And now, it's off to the farm, and waiting for Spring...

[Zak M]

Looks like something is in the making... 

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

59 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Probably, but I'm more optimistic as it's the 0z and not the 12z which over amplifies normally.

Batten down the hatches next week.

As a rule cold charts don’t verify during winter 2019/20.

[mulzy]

Guess what the ext EPS shows?

Yes, strong Euro heights centred over France and the usual low heights to our north west.  Nothing doing from this suite!

Edited February 4, 2020 by mulzy

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Guess what the ext EPS shows?

Yes, strong Euro heights centred over France and the usual low heights to our north west.  Nothing doing from this suite!

[IDO]

Reading the latest Cohen blog and there is an undercurrent of resignation as to winter's last hurrah, more a murmur. Looking at the D16 GEFS and it doesn't get any worse than these:

A desperate bunch from a UK perspective. That takes us to the final week of February!

 No real changes, the most likely UK outcome, anomalous heights close to the UK, probably Euro based:

Mean at D16>

The three main players from the NH view, euro heights, Pacific high and the spill-over of heights in  the Russia/Siberia region. The Pacific high has been a pain for the UK for blocking so nothing good there and as Cohen mentions, a Pacific High reduces the chances of an SSW.

As for the storm, the GEFS at this range have a UK event in the main cluster, variations on that hit. There are still other outcomes:

T192: 

The GFS op run as a whole post D4, is for most south of Birmingham, very wet and windy, until the latter stages. The further north, the wilder and wetter with possible transient snow. Enjoy the lull before the storm...

[IDO]

A good run for the west and NW after the heavy rain systems push through. A 48-hour spell of sustained uppers with a mix of -8c in there. Lots of snow showers piling in from the West.

 

Storm T180:  T186:  T192:  T198:

Further north compared to the 0z and within the ensemble mix.

Edited February 4, 2020 by IDO

[Sir Mim]

We may well have a monster low pressure during Wednesday next week.  It's more than a week away still, but the GFS op has been so consistent these last few runs I think it may well verify.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Mr TOAD

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Mr TOAD said:

I think it may well verify.

Doubt it...GFS always has a thing for over blowing these dartboard lows which largely don't materialise. 

[Sir Mim]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

Doubt it...GFS always has a thing for over blowing these dartboard lows which largely don't materialise. 

Even with the consistency of the last few runs?

 

I get the GFS has a reputation for overblowing these dartboards, but one of these day it will verify.

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Mr TOAD said:

Even with the consistency of the last few runs?

 

I get the GFS has a reputation for overblowing these dartboards, but one of these day it will verify.

£50 of my hypothetical money says upstream in the jet it doesn't develop in that round dartboard shape but flatter and moves somewhat further north west, still be windy though...something of interest in this rubbish winter,

[joggs]

2 hours ago, mulzy said:

Guess what the ext EPS shows?

Yes, strong Euro heights centred over France and the usual low heights to our north west.  Nothing doing from this suite!

No surprise this winter.

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

£50 of my hypothetical money says upstream in the jet it doesn't develop in that round dartboard shape but flatter and moves somewhat further north west, still be windy though...something of interest in this rubbish winter,

if it does not develop as much it will track further south, the deeper it gets it will track further north.

[mb018538]

The potential hurricane-style low doesn't even exist until around this timeframe, sitting just off the eastern seaboard. Depends on the position/strength of the jet and much more as to how it interacts and spins up. Almost impossible to get good detail at this range.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by mb018538

[Banbury]

13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

£50 of my hypothetical money says upstream in the jet it doesn't develop in that round dartboard shape but flatter and moves somewhat further north west, still be windy though...something of interest in this rubbish winter,

For the Beeb to mention it , would suggest there is a possibility 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Banbury

[mb018538]

Signs of a slight shift in the pattern at day 12-15...



Subtropical high becoming a bit more influential - no signs of cold though.

Edited February 4, 2020 by mb018538

[Man With Beard]

The ECM clusters continue to forecast at very least the basic ingredients for storm development - a very deep trough, not a long way off record levels I'd imagine, and a steep upper level gradient close to the UK. The two dodgiest time-frames seem to be around T144 (D6) and T204 (D8/D9).

  

I would expect some temporary wintriness for the north from this.

Further out, and the clusters continue to indicate a much higher chance of a Feb 2019 repeat - in fact, quite a good chance - rather than Feb 2018, with cluster 1 set-up nearly perfectly for mild weather. A very, very good chance of all three winter months above 6C mean temperature if this pattern verifies in the second half of Feb - is that yet another first?

[Mr Frost]

The impressive thing about the gales/severe gales for late Saturday through Sunday would be the huge area they cover. (Pretty much the whole UK/Ireland would be in the mix for some action)

 

 

Snowfall risk soon after all the above...

 

All in la la land though so to be taken with a large pinch of salt! Good to see though and very interesting weather indeed if it happens.

Have a good day everyone! 

[frosty ground]

Ensemble Run 3 shows what happens if the storm fails to materialise like the OP. (Cold air further south so the potential for a lot of snow on the northern flank.)

Most ensembles show the warm sector easily getting as for north as Manchester, which indicates a lot of support for the storm as per the Op.

 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

if it does not develop as much it will track further south, the deeper it gets it will track further north.

Not really...depends on the shape and strength of the jet in development, flatter it is more chance of at a lower latitude.

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Doubt it...GFS always has a thing for over blowing these dartboard lows which largely don't materialise. 

 

1 hour ago, Mr TOAD said:

Even with the consistency of the last few runs?

 

I get the GFS has a reputation for overblowing these dartboards, but one of these day it will verify.

 

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

£50 of my hypothetical money says upstream in the jet it doesn't develop in that round dartboard shape but flatter and moves somewhat further north west, still be windy though...something of interest in this rubbish winter,

Should be interesting 

....Eyes down.

[nick sussex]

Most of the ECM ensembles take the storm further north . It’s notable that the lowest pressure readings are reserved for the far north of Scotland .

This is both good and bad news. Less impact for the vast majority of the public but for snow lovers the mild sector is going to be well to the north .

The only evolution that can deliver snow and not worries about damage to due to winds is a shallow feature which runs east .

In terms of today’s op runs after this brief flirtation with that colder PM flow the only output which could evolve to give a further colder interlude is the ECM op which splits the PV and could keep a wedge of heights to the north allowing some trough disruption upstream .

But the ECM op really has been playing this publicity seeking role all winter and then implodes in future runs ! 

[shaky]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Ensemble Run 3 shows what happens if the storm fails to materialise like the OP. (Cold air further south so the potential for a lot of snow on the northern flank.)

Most ensembles show the warm sector easily getting as for north as Manchester, which indicates a lot of support for the storm as per the Op.

 

Got a hunch the storm will be not be as deep on the 12z/further south and will join more of the flatliners around the 11th of feb!!or will be so far north it will just a normal windy such as the ecm!!

Edited February 4, 2020 by shaky

[Tim Bland]

Usual scenario is that lows tend to be downgraded nearer the time so let’s hope this is the same and it ends up shallower and further south. That way more of us get snow and less in the way of devastating severe gales ! 

[IDO]

The 06z at the time of the storm now about 100% in support of that LP cell deepening and hitting the UK:

Timing, intensity and track still not a given, though the op similar to the mean with the latter.

Rubbish op FI with a repeating Atlantic trough. Mean and ensembles supportive of that scenario so just where the SSW to NEE jet aligns, UK heights possible within that envelope:

Mean at D16: