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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You know what Steve - I think i have dropped a clanger - there huge areas of PPN across a swathe of the country and heavy right up to my location!!! -  But that is not to do with the low, that looks like showers that have merged together - i cannot post it as it wont let you copy images on the Met Office site but i have checked the pressure charts and they only go in 12 hour steps but the low is actually quite far South. It has the Centre of it about to hit Cornwall at around midnight but has it deep into Northern France by 12 midday tommorow.

Brilliant update for us midlanders then!!funny that we gona get hit by heavier snow in form of showers but gfs showing the snowfall from the main low hitting us!!who is gone be correct!!

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Brilliant update for us midlanders then!!funny that we gona get hit by heavier snow in form of showers but gfs showing the snowfall from the main low hitting us!!who is gone be correct!!

See what you make of it yourself - doesn't have PPN type unfortunately - just slide the thing at the bottom along but like i say, this is this mornings - another one due - think its at 620 - might be wrong and be 7.20 but deffo one of the 2.

MO_Master_W.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for Uppermill including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

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@shaky  There are warnings out for the East midlands Northern part right down to North London, there is a seperate warning For the North and Scotland but that is snow and ice so might really from my point of view just be for wet surfaces freezing - yours is actually just for snow - Nothing for further South than London.

EDIT _ your just inside the warning.

Says 1-3cm down to 100m on both of those warnings. 5-10cm at 400m plus.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@shaky  There are warnings out for the East midlands Northern part right down to North London, there is a seperate warning For the North and Scotland but that is snow and ice so might really from my point of view just be for wet surfaces freezing - yours is actually just for snow - Nothing for further South than London.

EDIT _ your just inside the warning.

Says 1-3cm down to 100m on both of those warnings. 5-10cm at 400m plus.

According to the met..I'm 10miles short!!!! Let's see...

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

According to the met..I'm 10miles short!!!! Let's see...

Although verbal

\printed warnings have me...in the mix....with North West London \Buckinghamshire borders...in which I'm also bang in middle of...sorry for imby-quotes!

Edited by tight isobar
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2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-108.png?12

This chart would look better in late December, a small wedge 

That chart does look like something out of December lol! 

Some decent wintry potential on that (yes the p word).

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@shaky  There are warnings out for the East midlands Northern part right down to North London, there is a seperate warning For the North and Scotland but that is snow and ice so might really from my point of view just be for wet surfaces freezing - yours is actually just for snow - Nothing for further South than London.

EDIT _ your just inside the warning.

Says 1-3cm down to 100m on both of those warnings. 5-10cm at 400m plus.

Maybe its those heavier showers you mentioned which is why the met office put out those warning earlier?

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Maybe its those heavier showers you mentioned which is why the met office put out those warning earlier?

Well i had a really really heavy downpour earlier and started hail but ended up as snow, light dusting but melted straight away so if it is possible in mid afternoon at 3c then should be more readily snow at 5 am with 0c.

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The GEFS 12z mean indicates a light at the end of the very unsettled tunnel with signs of high pressure building in towards mid March.

294AA942-22A2-43ED-B4BB-799204243F15.thumb.png.0e07a73c485fe0ba0ce51305ed238ecd.pngA73086A4-DFE0-4EBA-A835-67F255027D3A.thumb.png.c2a60ec2f96355074ae8edda6946f255.png

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well i had a really really heavy downpour earlier and started hail but ended up as snow, light dusting but melted straight away so if it is possible in mid afternoon at 3c then should be more readily snow at 5 am with 0c.

Yeh temps didnt get any higher than 5 degrees here today!!!no showers though!!!

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31 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Which model is that?  I'm guessing GEM as they are have a habit of massively overplaying snow accumulations. 

It's the GFS 12z. The GEM does have a habit of overplaying these type of events but I think the GFS got a little bit jealous! ?

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A couple of 12Z UKV GIFs for those who are interested:

ukvgif.thumb.gif.f5396f32add59c5f88e8edb698f5b497.gif 1375008246_ukvgif(1).thumb.gif.ad726cf81e065eae1972a450265de3f2.gif

Edited by Mapantz
Wrong zulu time
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Well the points are off to a good start 20 miles or so inland...away from coastal areas....very inviting early on!!!....need a steady climb down as front approaches.....  Current temperature also looking reasonable...it's what advective warmth the front can herald in......to which @elevation could be a snow machine...in itself......

pointrosee_uk.png

pointrosee.png

tn_uk.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Beyond tomorrow still scope for further marginal snow events as shown on these ECM charts - notice on the first one the blobs of pink mixed in with the rain so even further south it’s v boarderline 

94C74B95-D142-4D69-9800-7608A33F3694.jpeg

165E2566-EC2D-45CD-8186-FC74BB90CBB8.jpeg

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This will be the first channel low of the winter and the first since november,anything to get an opposite wind direction however brief,much higher chance of snow from an easterly.

Edited by Snowyowl9
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12z EURO4 shifts things south about 30-50 miles - the consequences however, as teased earlier, are that the precipitation is less intense overall and so the result is a sleety mess but further south (Home Counties through to London ), with just some trace temporary accumulations showing up on the highest ground.

That said, comparing the 1900 radar imagery to the forecast position of the precipitation band at that time from both the UKV and EURO4, the band in reality looks a touch further north than modelled by these two (by say about 20-30 miles) - so we’re probably honing in on a middle ground solution between high resolution modelling and the more global NWP output (e.g ECM which looks significantly further north than the UKV/EURO4, but in reality is only a touch further north, enough to engage an area of vorticity to the north of the system and trigger some further showers/precipitation)

 

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43 minutes ago, snowking said:

12z EURO4 shifts things south about 30-50 miles - the consequences however, as teased earlier, are that the precipitation is less intense overall and so the result is a sleety mess but further south (Home Counties through to London ), with just some trace temporary accumulations showing up on the highest ground.

That said, comparing the 1900 radar imagery to the forecast position of the precipitation band at that time from both the UKV and EURO4, the band in reality looks a touch further north than modelled by these two (by say about 20-30 miles) - so we’re probably honing in on a middle ground solution between high resolution modelling and the more global NWP output (e.g ECM which looks significantly further north than the UKV/EURO4, but in reality is only a touch further north, enough to engage an area of vorticity to the north of the system and trigger some further showers/precipitation)

 

How far north does the snow get on ecm?

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36 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 12z with a 952mb LP for the weekend,so more trouble on the way.

 

ECU1-72.GIF.thumb.png.6a91d12b9e6b5eb8a71d7999816eb30f.png

Blimey! We're all talking about the prospects of snow whilst this beast is lurking in just a few days. Concerning and potentially a named storm?

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31 minutes ago, shaky said:

How far north does the snow get on ecm?

The ECM has around an inch of snow accumulation for Leicester. I tend to be wary of these precip forecasts though . These Channel Lows can throw up surprises . In a good or bad way ! I think it’s now a case of just seeing what happens .

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM has around an inch of snow accumulation for Leicester. I tend to be wary of these precip forecasts though . These Channel Lows can throw up surprises . In a good or bad way ! I think it’s now a case of just seeing what happens .

100% nick...was always a nowcaster this 1..and there WILL be surprises!!!!

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM has around an inch of snow accumulation for Leicester. I tend to be wary of these precip forecasts though . These Channel Lows can throw up surprises . In a good or bad way ! I think it’s now a case of just seeing what happens .

What does it have for me?

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