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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Gfs still pushing for snowy Thursday. E281066A-8EB9-4D2E-8C3E-8004749148D1.thumb.png.8cd8826e7864500b61338301b4a7bb76.pngECCE67B4-81EC-4462-B237-F69E7B872D68.thumb.png.1a0029b32bb9fd00cc37dd798fdbccb8.pngB45FE995-E56B-4DEA-9842-93577BD66EF9.thumb.png.39b999d02e232c9938918db788f0c34e.png

And the BBC has got snow over my location to now . ??CED85E24-77E3-4854-9F13-981CA80B3F04.thumb.png.70c81f3fbb4ff13560cf48a4f738448d.png

Wow you must be my neighbour!  

MetO have upgraded their forecast from yesterday too.  Annoyingly I’m not at home tomorrow and have to travel south! 

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Shame the ECM and GFS have bailed out just as the UKMO decided to pull out one of those better solutions helped by a wedge of heights to the ne.

They all disagree as early as day 5 but so far this winter if the ECM picks the worst solution it normally verifies whilst anything colder implodes .

Edited by nick sussex
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Euro 4 highlighting the risk of some snow tonight. 
It’ll all be down to ppn intensity and organisation if we see any settling. Obviously hills much more prone to accumulations. 
 

698903C0-16B1-49D7-945B-8CD021CF1B24.thumb.png.6316109a130e613cfa5b86bcccb02763.png

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Shame the ECM and GFS have bailed out just as the UKMO decided to pull out one of those better solutions helped by a wedge of heights to the ne.

They all disagree as early as day 5 but so far this winter if the ECM picks the worst solution it normally verifies whilst anything colder implodes .

I'm not sure how well it's rated, but the Icon is similar to the UKMO

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6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Euro 4 highlighting the risk of some snow tonight. 
It’ll all be down to ppn intensity and organisation if we see any settling. Obviously hills much more prone to accumulations. 
 

698903C0-16B1-49D7-945B-8CD021CF1B24.thumb.png.6316109a130e613cfa5b86bcccb02763.png

That really goes for it doesn’t it?! Am I right in thinking there’s a tendency for these systems to be corrected southwards a day before an event? Sorry if this has been brought up already I haven’t read it all

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Shame the ECM and GFS have bailed out just as the UKMO decided to pull out one of those better solutions helped by a wedge of heights to the ne.

They all disagree as early as day 5 but so far this winter if the ECM picks the worst solution it normally verifies whilst anything colder implodes .

Yes, ECM has impressed with it's consistent fail at D10 when height rises are involved. Yesterday I ignored it as I think there had been 20+ previous fails and statistically the probability of yesterday's D10 verifying was very low:

yesterday>ECE1-240.thumb.gif.5d212d689e95187b15c73c2941c98339.gifToday>ECE1-216.thumb.gif.ef89d7742d7145849c77dd1e81666cd0.gif

We have also seen false dawns in FI from the GFS as it picks up a signal, then it crashes back to the ongoing pattern. The D16 mean offers little hope of a change pre-mid-March:

gensnh-21-1-384.thumb.png.2f99f268098514e8a0f1a543da1e7a26.png

The tPV is moving around to our north so little sign that a ridge could sustain but maybe a brief respite from the zonal flow is possible. Any wedge help would be welcome but they are only worth a cursory look till they reach D5.

A mundane end to a rotten winter, 2.6c above average for Jan CET and currently 3.1c above for Feb! That is as far away from a cold winter the worst nightmare could come up with!

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ECM has snow falling from M4 up to Manchester and across to Norwich. Areas further south such as High Wycombe across to Essex could also see some. Children’s and downs look like the sweet spot with a whopping 5cm So almost enough for a snowman ️ This is probably the highlight of the winter ?

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DA2CF927-DBCD-48B8-AFB6-3C7C1119045D.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has snow falling from M4 up to Manchester and across to Norwich. Areas further south such as High Wycombe across to Essex could also see some. Children’s and downs look like the sweet spot with a whopping 5cm So almost enough for a snowman ️ This is probably the highlight of the winter ?

CC089FDB-78CD-4FA9-954C-5CAFA29B4D12.jpeg

EF8644A7-CEE0-448F-81B0-0399652B44FF.jpeg

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That shows heavy snow over my house under 850s of -5C and a dew point of 0-1C. I won't even see a flake.

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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV's snow take on the early hours tomorrow.1337321294_viewimage-2020-02-26T093832_825.thumb.png.680a95a1b0f136760a2f14ea69973b5c.png212127935_viewimage-2020-02-26T093935_975.thumb.png.faac8e51acced841aed3c9fe68efd45e.png

That model  like most others as chopped and changed    only yesterday it was showing  close to nil precipitation  through the middle swath    what looks likely according to that  is anyone wishing to build a snowman in southern england  may be out of luck 

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19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@Tim Bland

I check ECM Snowline level for 04-0700 its 500 Feet ( 150M ) For reference. 

Cut off point for snow around Tonbridge across to crawley ( All rain further south )

S

I'll let you know if your right Steve, as I live in Crawley! 

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

HIRLAM 0z has the following for Thursday morning, classic M4 scenario:

hirlamuk-1-30-0.thumb.png.0f8d187ac9f4882daa17c8baa5c329f0.png

Cumulative snow to end of the run:

hirlamuk-45-48-0.thumb.png.ed03cd858059135122291cd4aae6aed6.png

Going down to the wire this one...

The 6z  though brings it much further South   sleety mix  for most   Cotswolds  best position 

Edited by weirpig
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12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

That model  like most others as chopped and changed    only yesterday it was showing  close to nil precipitation  through the middle swath    what looks likely according to that  is anyone wishing to build a snowman in southern england  may be out of luck 

You couldn't be more wrong. I have been watching it for the past few days and it has been extremely consistent - hardly changed at all.

Edited by Mapantz
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12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

That model  like most others as chopped and changed    only yesterday it was showing  close to nil precipitation  through the middle swath    what looks likely according to that  is anyone wishing to build a snowman in southern england  may be out of luck 

18z yesterday and latests.. Can't see much difference.

293227993_viewimage-2020-02-26T095729_314.thumb.png.4b6efe8a3f5f0497e6c55861221de1ac.png285556679_viewimage-2020-02-26T093832_825.thumb.png.f726fb5877f3dc8010e555fabc1a7476.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

18z yesterday.. Can't see much difference.

293227993_viewimage-2020-02-26T095729_314.thumb.png.4b6efe8a3f5f0497e6c55861221de1ac.png

Apologises   i was thinking of the UK4   i think 

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Those of us looking for a possible end in sight to the very unsettled pattern could be cheered by the longer term GEFS 0z mean which indicates higher pressure in the vicinity of the U.K. towards mid March.

5F4C0DFF-E549-4E4D-96E4-26F25BAEE145.thumb.png.21d69610436c5d58fafa02e6779d8b45.png

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13 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

18z yesterday and latests.. Can't see much difference.

293227993_viewimage-2020-02-26T095729_314.thumb.png.4b6efe8a3f5f0497e6c55861221de1ac.png285556679_viewimage-2020-02-26T093832_825.thumb.png.f726fb5877f3dc8010e555fabc1a7476.png

Or maybe this   yesterday

image.thumb.png.3c568af844f37edfff650c5684a04066.png

Edited by weirpig
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The wedge drama continues .

The GFS develops a wedge of heights to the ne . Every run though changes the evolution of low pressure over the UK .

This wants to split  low pressure over the UK taking one cell nw whilst the second tracks east .

If any wedge gets further sw then a better chance of some snow as the upstream low moves in later and hits the colder air .

Equally if the ECM trend is correct then zip chance of that .

 

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