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Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Or those southern counties south of the M8:

GFS snow depth T168:

image.thumb.jpg.c725bce3e18844e1a793d2cee54837e3.jpg

 

Lol!  I was referring to Thursday's HIRLAM chart, though.

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

If you listen carefully Nick, you'll hear the sound of laptops being slammed shut all across the south of England ?

Dont worry jokes aside i think us midlanders will be doing that by tomorrow morning!!i still think that it will be shunted further south!!

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

If you listen carefully Nick, you'll hear the sound of laptops being slammed shut all across the south of England ?

Or breaking glass as they fly through windows!

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If there is something that I remember about the GFS and lows scooting through the channel, it corrects them South right down to the last minute.

The more corrections south the more colder air entrenched over the UK,then we start over again with this fiasco when another low comes in.

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Much better 18z - this looks like a good run - watch this now!

image.thumb.png.e89ad4a82b5b4670406db6a631fe1f22.png

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Back to the pub run and it's bringing in a brief northerly at 210 - certainly different from the 12z if nothing else.

image.thumb.png.500414b84095e08a02b91d0039ad2d03.png

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Much better 18z - this looks like a good run - watch this now!

image.thumb.png.e89ad4a82b5b4670406db6a631fe1f22.png

going similar to what the control runs have been churning out for the last few days,in fact,it's better than the last run from the control 12z

going to be a stonker this run.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

going similar to what the control runs have been churning out for the last few days.

Only problem though, the very cold air has been shunted away now, that could really have delivered if there was the cold pool to the North there has been on previous runs.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only problem though, the very cold air has been shunted away now, that could really have delivered if there was the cold pool to the North there has been on previous runs.

WAIT!!!

watch that feature north of Scotland at day ten back build west/southwest as the high amplifies NE.

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.38a206ddbc8b79313daaad292c20308d.png

 

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It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

The GFS 18hrs run is a good example of how even an angry looking PV needn’t stop cold .

The orientation of that allows the ridge to build ne . You do need a retrogression signal eventually though to keep the cold but getting to the cold in the first place isn’t stopped by the PV

Edited by nick sussex
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This is a better run and fits in with some of the 12z ens suits,we have a Genoa low forming to prop the high up,I AM LOOKING FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS.

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.f369ac7865d17c813e67997d532d3348.pnggfsnh-1-264.thumb.png.12a747e9d1653e5433050a1a0d890acd.png

although the uppers are not great but subject to change nearer the time if this scenario holds.

 

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

Surely someone has access to the 18 hour run on this forum!!cmon come out come out wherever you are!!!?

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

There's no need to shed any more light on the channel low, Nick, it is pining for the fiords.    

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8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a shame we don’t get access to the ECM 18 hrs run . That goes out to T90hrs and might have shed some more light on the Channel Low.

The GFS 18hrs run is a good example of how even an angry looking PV needn’t stop cold .

The orientation of that allows the ridge to build ne . You do need a retrogression signal eventually though to keep the cold but getting to the cold in the first place isn’t stopped by the PV

 

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Surely someone has access to the 18 hour run on this forum!!cmon come out come out wherever you are!!!?

It's behind paywall if my memory serves,i think it's every 6 hour intervals.

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

There's no need to shed any more light on the channel low, Nick, it is pining for the fiords.    

The low has turned into one of those z list celebs ! You know loves all the adulation and press coverage but won’t be happy when model watchers then turn on it ! 

I think because the colder air then tucks into the nw part of the low as it clears then I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few surprises thrown up .

I certainly wouldn’t be viewing those precip forecasts as set in stone . 

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The gfs 18z has corrected this scenario a good few hundred miles west on the eastern flank of the high from it's 12z run and it is a matter of time that whilst we see this hp cell migrate west then a trough will drop from the north,great run this and watch it grow over the next few runs,we hope.

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.eeb51783ce9e468de628c1d58c9ce770.png

this high is propped and primed for a pattern change,watch this space.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Bit of a downgrade on the 18z extended GEFS suite im afraid, not tragic but was hoping for those more potent runs to become more numerous.

image.thumb.png.4a361565fc07856bd6b516b6e45faa6f.png

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EPS ext not great either.

image.thumb.png.6ee0b23e9c1a7a1c9f622f5df2e03145.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Or those southern counties south of the M8:

GFS snow depth T168:

image.thumb.jpg.c725bce3e18844e1a793d2cee54837e3.jpg

 

Not sure what the snow depths for t168 have to do with Thursday (t48) ??‍♂️ here’s the relevant depths for then ...

079C8E69-52B7-467C-99E1-EAB7149BE5EF.png

1B80A1C4-FFDC-4540-B743-485538A1C7F5.gif

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bit of a downgrade on the 18z extended GEFS suite im afraid, not tragic but was hoping for those more potent runs to become more numerous.

image.thumb.png.4a361565fc07856bd6b516b6e45faa6f.png

Ya having a laugh right?? .. The mean drops to it's lowest point that I can recall this season... And it's ample...the spreads then begin dictate on the mean.  And the member splits shout....another belt of drop line clustering...in near suites...March or not.....it's gun ho! 500z through suite lounges also are of big note......the fat lady isn't singing...the far bloke belly flopping is!!!!!!..those ens are classic pass down..with a batch of member followers!

Screenshot_20200226-012116.png

MT8_London_ens (11).png

Screenshot_20200226-012956.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Without any notable \established blocking  these are the next best formats to view.......and "speakable" is the tyre tread is there for an evolutionary switch to a more relaxed atmosphere state to allow a short\high blocking scenario.....it's turning on a knifes edge...without doubt...winter weather has it's eyes on what we want as......spring!!!.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_1.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_2.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Morning still a significant margin for tomorrow low

GFS ENTRY point southern Ire > ECM about 50-75 miles further South > location of 0c isotherm crucial

SE contingent rooting for ECM > those on the cut off further north rooting for ECM

C99ED03B-61BC-4A43-A8A4-AC21F2B20544.thumb.png.b00dc92f175cc6b0501bad01d057199e.pngEE78AD5C-9377-4993-BC0A-D652CCAF8F3D.thumb.png.ee83d168ce2d40f63a51880a19d98131.png

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Very nice UKMO this morning with a slither of heights building to the north of the UK, gfs was showing this a few days ago then dropped the idea to an extent, ecm totally different but well go with the UKMO ??

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-13.png

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