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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes and typically too late and with no cold air to draw on ! 

These huge highs even in mid winter are too big for their own good , we want to see a chunk of the PV drop south to the east to inject some cold into the flow . 

Scandi highs boxed in are much better , bigger isn’t always better ! 

I wouldnt say too late, they can deliver right up until early April, but you are right regarding PV chunk, its all about timing you want a snap off of the siberian vortex but it needs to align with the UK along the surface isobars.,

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Quite a few wedges popping up in the GEFS.

The models still seem unsure as to what happens with low pressure over the UK after day 5.

The control run almost produces a throwback to Feb 1996.

Edited by nick sussex
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - another step in the right direction, anyone else starting to get more interested in the bigger prize in the second half of March rather than the scraps of the plate in a pizza hut over the next few days?

In a word, yes.  There's enough frigid air around at the moment that IF we could tap into it, there's still time for some proper winter weather.  I'm giving it another few weeks then it's time to move to the dark side of wishing for warm weather! 

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3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

In a word, yes.  There's enough frigid air around at the moment that IF we could tap into it, there's still time for some proper winter weather.  I'm giving it another few weeks then it's time to move to the dark side of wishing for warm weather! 

I will never do that - well below average temps with very high precipitation all year around for me.

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The 12z HIRLAM:

anim_ryi9.gif

Or to sum this up cumulative snow to T48:

image.thumb.jpg.82fbbc40f8dd28bbb9f1c9fa1433c38f.jpg

I like the HIRLAM for two reasons, first it is a good short term model for precipitation. In my opinion, but second, it only runs to T48 so if we're talking about it we must de facto be in with a shout, the reason I post it is that there is some snow interest at short range, within 48 hrs, modest interest  but the interest is there.  And it would be the first time this winter for many, just days before the curtain falls...and the snowy spring season begins - well just hoping for a last, well only, snow fix before the warm season...

Edited by Mike Poole
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19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh no!.....

image.thumb.jpg.76e0acc7e481ef98ac10e995bc040a2e.jpg

ECM T96, looks awful.

Give it time . Some of the GEFS looked similar and found some nice wedges later .

I gave it time and it’s not upto much ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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Struggling to know what to to make of the ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.8d9a3977e882ef2b34471f17b261b625.jpg

Starfish?

No. Interesting perspective on a kitten trying to catch an ice cube?    Maybe.

Pinch of salt, to be honest.  And that includes the weather shown by the model!  Obviously.

Edited by Mike Poole
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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Struggling to know what to to make of the ECM T240:

 

Starfish?

No. Interesting perspective on a kitten trying to catch an ice cube?  

Pinch of salt, to be honest.  And that includes the weather shown by the model!  Obviously.

Looks like it could be heading the way of some of the GEFS with that ridge being thrown up.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like it could be heading the way of some of the GEFS with that ridge being thrown up.

Well we can hope, feb, but for now, I'm wondering about prospects on the 3-6 day timescale.  The news on that is that for the first time ever this winter there are some....for some.

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12Z NAVGEM, despite it’s underwhelming 850 hPa temperatures for cold, goes for the wedge of High Pressure to the North of the UK this weekend, onwards. And Low Pressure sliding down through the UK from the North-West. End up with a slack(ish) flow from the North-West to North-East over most of the UK. 

34CC3C3B-26EB-47D1-B33A-15E5E8A764DA.thumb.png.043771f028be96729b47a30bd6d5793d.pngE22E8D3D-2DC3-498F-A712-518D07531B52.thumb.png.f91481b4e0718b3e63b8d3e935e8fcd3.png234F372E-4A31-4A50-80A4-B41A079C395D.thumb.png.4f6a9e240b9caebb60e454fd57302275.pngDC3FAD84-A4FF-4656-A70E-842C689B930B.thumb.png.f9146c4c365cdd3a6313aed85abe1bff.png
 

Weather would look to settle down a bit with a little mid-Atlantic surface ridge moving into Western UK. More of a slacker less full on mobile pattern compared to the 12Z ECMWF.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

One thing I will say regarding the ECM mean is.... Spring for sure remains on hold.... Long live Winter..... Hale, hale, hale... 

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

newcastle_ecmsd850.png

Remains on hold? Give it a chance - it doesn’t start for 5 days yet! ?

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15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Remains on hold? Give it a chance - it doesn’t start for 5 days yet! ?

Lol ?, I think it's because some have been talking about it for quite a time. I held my pet rabbit up in the air today, and he predicts.... 6 more weeks of winter.. ? Going on the ensembles, perhaps a good shout of it remaining on the cold side through early March...

And if your still wandering where all that blocking is.... Here goes... ?

cfs-0-462.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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So trying to bring myself up to speed with what's been going the past month and now it looks were at the "last chance" for this "winter" regarding snowfall 

Let's see what's happenings in the coming days ?

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ICON 18z rolling, here T33:

image.thumb.jpg.d40d299a1fb9de55688f2bceba986f51.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.52d462bd8481bfec400f96d1198f6519.jpg

Yes it is headed for the channel, but it just isn't cold enough, T39:

image.thumb.jpg.a9f6529e5e770927867e32a7c662b5c3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9137d44f847a094598f495de39b60c0f.jpg

Not much going to change this now, so on to the next disappointment!

Edit, this showed up on the ECM too, Saturday looks nasty on the ICON, T90:

image.thumb.jpg.255dfc4a1586895aa5e3641acf27533e.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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24 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z rolling, here T33:

image.thumb.jpg.d40d299a1fb9de55688f2bceba986f51.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.52d462bd8481bfec400f96d1198f6519.jpg

Yes it is headed for the channel, but it just isn't cold enough, T39:

 

Not much going to change this now, so on to the next disappointment!

 

But that is just one model though?  

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