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Model output discussion 02/02/20

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image.thumb.png.8756bf28e7965d445e25e4899c480a16.png                          image.thumb.png.20d1f8da071a89e621e530afb8cb5973.png       Arp  Further North  Edit sorry Apple  didnt see your post 

Edited by weirpig
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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

image.thumb.png.8756bf28e7965d445e25e4899c480a16.png                          image.thumb.png.20d1f8da071a89e621e530afb8cb5973.png       Arp  Further North  Edit sorry Apple  didnt see your post 

Big upgrade!looking at 5-10cms for northern half and around 2 or 3 cms for southern mids!!im inbetween so around 5cms lol!!

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 here I think the Arpege is overcooking the low by around 100\150miles too North....but speculation atm...and as again...fun 1 to decipher \watch unfold!...the English chanel is a filter\syphon for these and tends to draw them in\down

Edited by tight isobar
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If this low deepens more then not only will it go further north but it shall cause problems snowfall.wise on the northern end of the low!!precipitation shall be heavier as well!!

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The good thing at least is it’s now very unlikely the low could miss the UK which sometimes happens and would be just an insult to coldies to add to the crud winter !

The sweet spot for snow still needs to be nailed down and will certainly keep this thread buzzing !

Edited by nick sussex
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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

If this low deepens more then not only will it go further north but it shall cause problems snowfall.wise on the northern end of the low!!precipitation shall be heavier as well!!

Yep  the control has initially  Only the north of england/ Wales  under snow  the rest rain   Actually most of the ensembles have this evolution  

image.thumb.png.7601bf2da127c6f9ea33f8ffff6ebebf.png

Edited by weirpig
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35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You might have no interest in the ECM(The best model) but to say there was no HLB in the output this morning was wrong. 

I would also say the mean you post above shows lows possibly disrupting under a HLB forming to the NE.

That was a wedge not a block per se. They are notorious to predict and they rarely hang around, getting pushed with the general flow. Not one ECM D10 chart with northern heights has verified this winter so are puzzled why this one will? GFS has that wedge migrate faster on the westerly flow so is a non-feature in reality. The ECM mean does the same. The heights to the NE on the mean is the Russian High that has been of no help this winter and that is one thing that we do not want.

I find it hard to be inspired by the next 16-days and Cohen's blog is confident a positive AO remains for that time period so basically more of the same with the odd interlude like this week where the scraps of cold may get some snow to some. Hopefully with the +AO we may see the bulk of the tPV relax in our sector to get a settled spell, but based on the repeating pattern it will not have longevity. No sign of any tropical forcing. Maybe you see it different?

The Cohen blog is quite interesting as he suggests the IOD was not the main reason for the mild winter:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

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JMA   hard to tell  where will snow  but you can see the precipitation 

image.thumb.png.decad8d599ab89b7b2f78b392cf0db66.pngimage.thumb.png.c295a7e2a8be015ce191cdf2173abf69.png    

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

JMA   hard to tell  where will snow  but you can see the precipitation 

image.thumb.png.decad8d599ab89b7b2f78b392cf0db66.pngimage.thumb.png.c295a7e2a8be015ce191cdf2173abf69.png    

All global models overdo the areas of PPN but particularly the JMA and GFS, it looks like its all one massive band joined up on those but you nearly always get a gap in between lows and the showers where very little PPN occurs, the GFS did it in the Dec 17th / 18th 2010 situation, it had huge areas of heavy snow across most of the country a few days out, in the end the showers affected the North West and the low only affected up to about the West Midlands.

EDIT : always try to think of areas with light or lightly moderate PPN as no PPN or very little and you wont go far wrong.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1things assured...these charts will take a hammering from [email protected]\bulbs\winds-humidity.... All important....

Screenshot_20200225-110400.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Some perspective on the GFS snow charts. For today:

15-779UK.thumb.gif.c0c283f3575f66046e35ac309140b898.gif

However, the MetOffice says rain apart from maybe hills (over 200m). Also the low on Thursday AM to clip the south coast with no snow and weekend more intensive rain. They do not have any mention of uncertainty so they are going with ECM/UKMO charts.

We shall see how the pros get on compared to the other models?

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Some perspective on the GFS snow charts. For today:

15-779UK.thumb.gif.c0c283f3575f66046e35ac309140b898.gif

However, the MetOffice says rain apart from maybe hills (over 200m). Also the low on Thursday AM to clip the south coast with no snow and weekend more intensive rain. They do not have any mention of uncertainty so they are going with ECM/UKMO charts.

We shall see how the pros get on compared to the other models?

Tbh IDO I cannot remember how many times with such features the MET haven't come on board till the [email protected] nowcast put out....  Far to close to call!   Again we wait and see!?

Edited by tight isobar
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16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:


No thats a lovely little wedge 

#random-ensemble

Advertised well on the GEFS - heading for a stonker suite - even some Easterlies in there with proper blocking.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Advertised well on the GEFS - heading for a stonker suite - even some Easterlies in there with proper blocking.

@March soon to be the UK most notorious winter month!??? @trending

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December 2107, can't wait for that lol

 

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5 minutes ago, snowrye said:

December 2107, can't wait for that lol

 

According to some it will be 30c in winter by then.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

According to some it will be 30c in winter by then.

Not on my watch it won't Feb! ?

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Interesting that the GFS mean has the snow even further north.

gens-21-2-54.thumb.png.999a7dbfd2b5702659b12a6f784d60d7.png

Met Office forecast this morning was talking about just rain in the south, the next update will be interesting because they have just updated the graphics and its showing rain, sleet and snow further north than previously. At least if its further north there is more chance of someone seeing snowfall and a dumping in some lucky places, further south is useless for everyone.

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The UK4 has the low much further south than most of the 06 hrs outputs .

The precip is also much lighter . It looks a bit dodgy re that especially . 

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

further south is useless for everyone.

That's 1 of an array of plots\possible outs...and if we're nit picking data atm.....it's as we stand South of the Midlands in firing line for any snow!!!!..and the feature looks likely to end as just that....a channel lps

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