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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup and icon now gives snowfall more widely across central england!

Expect pivot and expanse as we gain imo....a fair few in with a reasonable shout...as per elevations do best!

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

6z going for quick trasition rain-snow....north Midlands...southwards.....

Stays as snow all the way through for Midlands judging by the 06z!!amazing upgrade!!

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And the high res   to be fair anywhere in with a shout of the white stuff 

image.thumb.png.08f85c8921271430cae7e0921a77c2f0.pngimage.thumb.png.3b7cfac80c255311f181b540f30d88aa.pngimage.thumb.png.f299f5cb0bcf3b09663dd72f45d42423.png       

Edited by weirpig
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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

6z going for quick trasition rain-snow....north Midlands...southwards.....

Yes the deepening and stronger flow of colder air back into the system from the north as it exits helps that quicker transition .

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@74 hhrs.. A nice reflection in the ens...as a brief punch of hp (milder air)come forwards...now we look to the nw....again as features eye UK shores!!!

MT8_London_ens (10).png

Edited by tight isobar
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes the deepening and stronger flow of colder air back into the system from the north as it exits helps that quicker transition .

Icon gives 8 to 10cms for north midlands

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Feasible imo...

Any news on the snow accumulations from gfs!probably not as good as icon even though the gfs looks better lol!!

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any news on the snow accumulations from gfs!probably not as good as icon even though the gfs looks better lol!!

For 250 asl you 8\10 cms...as it stands achievable...more modest ....below that camp.....but even home counties likely a covering!.. Good to watch this evolve.

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

If that is D8-D10 I have no interest, as ECM is a miscreant in that time range and should be ignored. The D10 mean suggests the op is doing its usual, of overplaying heights, 25mb>mean!:

EDE1-240.thumb.gif.0fd46d204b107ca95a1a54c680c6bd26.gif

You might have no interest in the ECM(The best model) but to say there was no HLB in the output this morning was wrong. 

I would also say the mean you post above shows lows possibly disrupting under a HLB forming to the NE.

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12 hours ago, tight isobar said:

 

I get that...however..we know it's going to bounce up and down...and maybe just for nowcast when it comes down to the wire....but I'd guarantee some will benefit in snow accumulation terms....it just geographically pin-pointing as per...it's I'm sure not a miss -and redirect feature this!!.. Ppn @no issue.

@weirpig

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

The Hirlam  not buying the deeper low  and keeps the track more southerly 

image.thumb.png.860600c2ddf2efb7925ec208975b9475.png

I personally think it will be further south but thats the gfs 00z icon 06 and gfs 06z that are further north!!has it picked a new signal?!!12z should be interesting viewing!

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ooo! too good to be true to expect a Dec 10th '17

prectypeuktopo.png

Was gona say the exact same thing!!reminds of that event except this looks further north!!what a time to get an upgrade aswell!!i hope 12z show the same thing!

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

I personally think it will be further south but thats the gfs 00z icon 06 and gfs 06z that are further north!!has it picked a new signal?!!12z should be interesting viewing!

Yes  very difficult to pin point the low  and were it will end up.  Interesting tonight could bring some interest  aot of shower activity showing up on various models   The Arome  would excite quite a few. 

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was gona say the exact same thing!!reminds of that event except this looks further north!!what a time to get an upgrade aswell!!i hope 12z show the same thing!

thing is as we all know, GFS overestimates northward movement and depth of the low, I think likeliest thing is a flop for north Midlands, and a S of M4 dumping like 1st Feb '19

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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To my ? it looks as if the Arpege 06Z is further north as well, nice to look at but the UKV is keeping me grounded for the moment.

(UK view not updated yet)

3106164A-7364-4D58-90F2-EF5817CCC495.png

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