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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Oh I so wish I could book a few days away in nw Scotland next week, although I think there will be many surprises Pretty much anywhere if these charts verify

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3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

18Z GFS has one of the tighest gradient "direct hits" I've ever seen.

192-289UK_jpo0.GIF198-289UK_ksq5.GIFspacer.png

Destruction for a swathe of central UK if that came off. Close to decent strength hurricane force winds.

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

18Z GFS has one of the tighest gradient "direct hits" I've ever seen.

192-289UK_jpo0.GIF198-289UK_ksq5.GIFspacer.png

Yes, based on this run you'd be looking at some serious gusts countrywide.  Lot's of time for this to change and as Nick mentioned above, GFS does usually overdo these systems so it's likely to be watered down over the next few days?!

image.thumb.png.e9eddd1ef8eb4273565dbf0fbb317fac.png

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14 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep good bye Ireland. ?

gfs-0-198.png

And Liverpool, wouldn’t fancy being in the Blackpool tower when that hits ?

198-289UK_fkf1.GIF

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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The peak wind shown here off the coast is just 8 kph shy of the windspeed of a Category 3 Major hurricane. These are mean winds, not gusts.

Obviously this is very very unlikely to actually happen but it's rare to see anything like this in our neck of the woods even in FI model land.

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10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, based on this run you'd be looking at some serious gusts countrywide.  Lot's of time for this to change and as Nick mentioned above, GFS does usually overdo these systems so it's likely to be watered down over the next few days?!

image.thumb.png.e9eddd1ef8eb4273565dbf0fbb317fac.png

It is difficult to know what to make of that horror low.  It seems very uncertain at this stage whether and when and where such systems would spawn off the monster low, but they could, and surely the monster vortex low in that location is pretty much unprecedented, so it is surely a case of wait and see until models agree, and that might be a few days...

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

One more post just to illustrate how extreme the 18Z GFS run is. Here is comparison to the GFS on the day of the 2014 storm which produced a wind gust of 159 kph at Shannon Airport, the highest recorded there since 1961. Today's 18Z GFS on the right...

 

spacer.png vs 192-289UK_eeh7.GIF

Thanks for that Radiohead . 

Let’s hope it’s just one of those GFS lows on steroids which doesn’t verify . And subsequently gets watered down . 

A deep low is likely but the GFS18hrs one looks outlandish .

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The GFS OP shows a maximum gust strength of 124mph just off of the coast of Mayo. 80 - 90mph across a large swathe of Northern England. It does move through quite quickly, though. It also fills as it crosses the British Isles, rather than deepening. That points to downgrades, but still likely that something will occur, and for the Met Office not to name it. ?

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1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

Oh I so wish I could book a few days away in nw Scotland next week, although I think there will be many surprises Pretty much anywhere if these charts verify

I'm glad I've booked a few days ooop North next week myself not scotland unfortunately as I'm not allowed to go there yet, but could see some in the pennines if the latest models are correct 

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37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is total weather nerd stuff but gfs predicting record breaking low pressure for Iceland at just T144 (current record 930mb)

gfs-0-144.png?18

From a 1050mb high to a 925mb low  talk about extremes! 

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Still not overly concerned(or excited!) about that secondary deep low, way too far out to take seriously although the classic quick weather bomb type of low is plausible given how strong the jet stream will be and the flood of cold air heading out the eastern seaboard. 

The potential for a stright isobars type of low is quite high, all models agree on it and its all down to the angle of the jet stream just how quick any polar maritime air gets into the UK. Do hope the Azores high does not become a spoiler in this as the GFS runs is trying too nose extra heights to our south thus delaying any potential colder air. Either way the central pressure of this main low could be quite low indeed and the risk of severe gales is certainly there. 

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6 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, based on this run you'd be looking at some serious gusts countrywide.  Lot's of time for this to change and as Nick mentioned above, GFS does usually overdo these systems so it's likely to be watered down over the next few days?!

image.thumb.png.e9eddd1ef8eb4273565dbf0fbb317fac.png

this  could get very messy with a lot  of damages  it that happen next week

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7 hours ago, Kentspur said:

I'm glad I've booked a few days ooop North next week myself not scotland unfortunately as I'm not allowed to go there yet, but could see some in the pennines if the latest models are correct 

We don't bite -  but avoid the barren Tundra known as the Fylde Coast

And don't forget your passport.

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.d7bf35b0d5d7391355b30c1cbbee4e89.png

Pennines Tuesday?

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another ECM 240 false positive.

image.thumb.png.0be3097eb560f02ea251d532b3d9e9e0.png

Probably, but I'm more optimistic as it's the 0z and not the 12z which over amplifies normally.

Batten down the hatches next week.

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