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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

smallest 850hpa spread ever in the history of ensemble forecasting.

image.thumb.png.9fdd09e5b10a8308dab12a3e6566cd13.png

 

Yes quite incredible that, and snow chances all the way to the end.

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

smallest 850hpa spread ever in the history of ensemble forecasting.

image.thumb.png.9fdd09e5b10a8308dab12a3e6566cd13.png

 

Some real worry for those awaiting an early spring....or anything remotely like it tbh!!!!

Screenshot_20200224-234439.png

Edited by tight isobar
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I've not looked at the models or posted in here for a few days....I've officially come down with model fatigue. Just got so sick and tired of seeing the same charts repeated day in, day out right until 384. It's just changed a bit to slightly colder zonal, but it still looks terrible, with inches and inches more rain to come:

image.thumb.png.24464ca4c24da2028d1c51bb673ac3ea.png

Think i might just have to leave it for another 2-3 days and see if anything has changed. With a strong PV forecast well into the first half of March, no signs of any high pressure or dry weather, it's very desperate.
 

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Not really looked lately as there is no real changes into March, the tPV dominating with no HLB'ing. Any wedges tend to move within that westerly flow so no sustained minor blocking getting into the reliable. So wet, cool, windy at times for my locale. The Thursday low an M4 north event most likely as we would expect:

anim_ips2.gif

Any snow settling over hills in the Midlands will be gone within hours. Saturday sees another possible snow event to higher ground but too early to pinpoint most at risk. On the GFS 0z little respite from further rain events with maybe some wintry stuff to the usual suspects but for the SE a washout and although further chances of snow the margins are very fine (D10 an example) though the M4 corridor look to be on the right track for these repeated attempts:

gfseuw-16-252.thumb.png.ea16107df695c16c667c41d19e415c90.png

The mean uppers hovering a degree or two below the average from D4 onwards with few options in the ensembles for anything colder in my area:

graphe9_1000_307_157___.thumb.png.df917a50fdd25d1778c8405e9d15f39a.png

TBH a nice warm early Spring is preferable to more rain and a cool flow, but I suppose some may see some fleeting snow but a bit of a wimper as the model heads towards mid-March.

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Well ECM doesn’t make much of Thursday’s feature at all now, and the developments over the weekend moving north on this run.     
 

I’m still expecting rain for much of this week by the look of it.  

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Looking into the GEFS 0z Crystal Ball it seems the best chance of more sustained benign weather is towards mid March but interestingly potential for a wintry blast too. In the meantime, it’s sunshine and showers, wintry in places, especially on hills for the next few days and slight frosts with icy patches, there is also a chance of wet snow for a time further south / southeast into Thursday before further wet and windy weather returns by the weekend.

78E7EA52-7494-4D00-BB35-E3205D4467B6.thumb.png.03d81beb03c89fd8af9b73d9f289081d.png00F01611-0F3D-401E-89CB-0A4734222E9A.thumb.png.3fee1a8db4bf847b252a4b39cc8bf6b5.pngBFCCC739-8A4E-4848-93FF-EE591870E7AC.thumb.png.0bbfc091fd57d3b5ad0d4475e8efd72e.png6FABB696-B821-45B4-8840-E35F57B204BA.thumb.png.03bd03a9a9897b27d3092b70c7d3880c.png5B313ECA-8B2F-49AD-9C88-DF98908564B1.thumb.png.c30951ed59c3aca7fc3ca494b13c3378.png

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30 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not really looked lately as there is no real changes into March, the tPV dominating with no HLB'ing. 

 

The ECM has a HLB over NE Scandanavia with the jet running underneath.

Loads of potential there.

 

 

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Let's hope you're right about mid-March, karl! In the meantime, it's another day on the farm. And another rather unpleasant-looking day of wind and showers...

Every sodding Tuesday it's the same!?

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECM has a HLB over NE Scandanavia with the jet running underneath.

Loads of potential there.

 

 

If that is D8-D10 I have no interest, as ECM is a miscreant in that time range and should be ignored. The D10 mean suggests the op is doing its usual, of overplaying heights, 25mb>mean!:

EDE1-240.thumb.gif.0fd46d204b107ca95a1a54c680c6bd26.gif

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Wintry showers already in western areas will continue throughout today although later this afternoon and through this evening an area of rain, sleet and snow likely moves east through Wales and into southern or central areas mainly a wintry mix to lower levels but some snow on higher ground is possible even in these areas, wintry showers continue for northern Ireland, Scotland and Western areas of England and Wales tonight with a few perhaps moving into central parts of England at times but generally becoming drier especially in the east. 

Icon.. ?

00_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.79c48227cb7dab98355beed6723de3db.png

Rain, Sleet and snow showers continue tomorrow mainly for northwestern parts especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

Rain probably moves east or northeast across England and Wales on Thursday morning on the northern edge of this a mix of rain, sleet and snow is possible for a time to lower levels with a spell of snow on higher ground but the track, timing and intensity is a little uncertain atm. 

Arpege.. ?

00_52_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.1125a8a25f8bfd191560955def915592.png

00_56_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.e48afe02cd4f3328ce5b8cae6235752d.png

Icon.. 

1088997198_00_54_ukpreciptype(2).thumb.png.cb07d39bcfa1bf9430c81562481aeafd.png

00_57_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.85f47a2f79fa01f943c5adad19be497d.png

Edited by jordan smith
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NetWx-SR is showing the batch of rain (or possibly snow) dive south:

net.thumb.png.5d371cf7409ae18bdb587c2a68fd7f35.png

I presume the only places that will get snow on Thursday will be places in the far south.

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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Wintry showers already in western areas will continue throughout today although later this afternoon and through this evening an area of rain, sleet and snow likely moves east through Wales and into southern or central areas mainly a wintry mix to lower levels but some snow on higher ground is likely even in these areas, wintry showers continue for northern Ireland, Scotland and Western areas of England and Wales tonight with a few perhaps moving into central parts of England at times but generally becoming drier especially in the east. 

Icon.. ?

00_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.79c48227cb7dab98355beed6723de3db.png

Rain, Sleet and snow showers continue tomorrow mainly for northwestern parts especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

Rain probably moves east or northeast across England and Wales on Thursday morning on the northern edge of this a mix of sleet and snow is possible to lower levels with a spell of snow on higher ground but the track, timing and intensity is a little uncertain atm. 

Arpege.. ?

00_52_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.1125a8a25f8bfd191560955def915592.png

00_56_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.e48afe02cd4f3328ce5b8cae6235752d.png

Icon.. 

1088997198_00_54_ukpreciptype(2).thumb.png.cb07d39bcfa1bf9430c81562481aeafd.png

00_57_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.85f47a2f79fa01f943c5adad19be497d.png

A nicely put together summary there. And yes still uncertainty regards Thursday trait \track......as 4 +day 5onwards.....it's an open book ...especially in micro synoptic...which are atm as borderline as it gets!.

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Just now, Zak M said:

NetWx-SR is showing the batch of rain (or possibly snow) dive south:

net.thumb.png.5d371cf7409ae18bdb587c2a68fd7f35.png

I presume the only places that will get snow on Thursday will be places in the far south.

1st Feb 2019 event written all over it

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17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

1st Feb 2019 event written all over it

I don’t remember that event, was it noteworthy? 
EDIT: my photos remember...we got some snizzle by the looks of it.  I remember driving back through the Cotswolds, a kind of slushy mix of rain and snow.  

 

Edited by Beanz
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9 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I don’t remember that event, was it noteworthy? 
EDIT: my photos remember...we got some snizzle by the looks of it.  I remember driving back through the Cotswolds, a kind of slushy mix of rain and snow.  

 

We had an AMAZING snow day on that day in NE Hants - some 15cm with snow falling all day. It was I recall due to a 'mesoscale event' embedded within a channel low ( way above my knowledge base, just how I recall it being explained as such after the unexpected dumping).

20190201_191141.jpg

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Looks like this low on Thursday is doing a merry dance  Icon gives it  quite a shunt North   From its previous run

image.thumb.png.27207bd3564879863a2c28fdd113f3e8.pngimage.thumb.png.58c68459bb97ed16278cc58810b4e2f4.png    

Edited by weirpig
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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Looks like this low on Thursday is doing a merry dance  Icon gives it  quite a shunt North   From its previous run

image.thumb.png.56e180bcca653724512e31d4f73d7efe.pngimage.thumb.png.27207bd3564879863a2c28fdd113f3e8.pngimage.thumb.png.58c68459bb97ed16278cc58810b4e2f4.png    

Yes that’s a very big change at that timeframe . Much to do with the deepening in pressure .  

It gets the central pressure down to 982 off the se coast , compared to the earlier one which had 992.

Edited by nick sussex
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27 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

We had an AMAZING snow day on that day in NE Hants - some 15cm with snow falling all day. It was I recall due to a 'mesoscale event' embedded within a channel low ( way above my knowledge base, just how I recall it being explained as such after the unexpected dumping).

20190201_191141.jpg

That was a great event here! 
 

The intensity and longevity of the snow was totally unforecast with initial front only giving a a few cm’s. As you say it was the local events that gave the heavy falls. 
 

IIRC it was caused by Slantwise Convection.

 

9A185F9F-2171-4BB6-99DF-60D1F1108773.thumb.jpeg.1f640803017e7b481eab9b78f91348a8.jpeg

This area of PPN just kept on reinvigorating in situ, so to speak, without really going anywhere!

 


A4B18CDD-498E-44B8-9799-CC8F32135B17.thumb.png.3ae332956469fce3758471bdeab6fc4e.png


Will be interesting to see how Thursdays low pans out. Position/intensity will crucial as to where/if any snow falls.

Edited by chris55
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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That was a great event here! 
 

The intensity and longevity of the snow was totally unforecast with initial front only giving a a few cm’s. As you say it was the local events that gave the heavy falls. 
 

IIRC it was caused by Slantwise Convection.

 

9A185F9F-2171-4BB6-99DF-60D1F1108773.thumb.jpeg.1f640803017e7b481eab9b78f91348a8.jpeg

This area of PPN just kept on reinvigorating in situ, so to speak, without really going anywhere!

 


A4B18CDD-498E-44B8-9799-CC8F32135B17.thumb.png.3ae332956469fce3758471bdeab6fc4e.png


Will be interesting to see how Thursdays low pans out. Position/intensity will crucial as to where/if any snow falls.

A classic *nowcast* feature this is developing into...I was mesmerized how some were 99'9% confident of a non event...only last [email protected] this space!

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The deepening of the low on the ICON has in turn increased the intensity of the precip .

Some quite interesting snow accumulations showing up . Still time for more changes with track and depth and 50 miles either way does make a big difference to those in the sweet spot.

 

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8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A classic *nowcast* feature this is developing into...I was mesmerized how some were 99'9% confident of a non event...only last [email protected] this space!

Yup and icon now gives snowfall more widely across central england!

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