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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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ICON 18z take on Thursdays feature, T60:

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The air isn't cold enough...is it, or maybe, in the morning, people have been wrong before about this sort of thing, so I'll say publicly that it won't snow in the south on Thursday, there, I've said it. That should sort the dew points out....

Edited by Mike Poole
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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

say publicly that it won't snow in the south on Thursday, there, I've said it. That should sort the dew points out....

Whoaa.....very premature mike .....these are indeed marginal formats...the meareast tweaks count for massive overheads\@ground level accomplishments...and @2\3day s out...A MASSIVE [email protected] range my experience tells me the track will only fall further...on a southerly trajectory...     And I'm personally going to scrutinise every run leading forward....including the possibility of fun and games come the weekend....and indeed beyond..??

Edited by tight isobar
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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Whoaa.....very premature mike .....these are indeed marginal firmats...the meareast tweaks count for massive overhead @groundground level accomplishments...and @w\edayw\edays out...A MASSIVE [email protected] range my experience tells me the track will only fall further...on a southerly trajectory...

Yes I know that. But I was just playing devils advocate, and .... the percentages!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Whoaa.....very premature mike .....these are indeed marginal formats...the meareast tweaks count for massive overheads\@ground level accomplishments...and @2\3day s out...A MASSIVE [email protected] range my experience tells me the track will only fall further...on a southerly trajectory...     And I'm personally going to scrutinise every run leading forward....including the possibility of fun and games come the weekend....and indeed beyond..??

Yes but if it goes much more, you will have no PPN so its a lose lose situation.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but if it goes much more, you will have no PPN so its a lose lose situation.

 

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but if it goes much more, you will have no PPN so its a lose lose situation.

I get that...however..we know it's going to bounce up and down...and maybe just for nowcast when it comes down to the wire....but I'd guarantee some will benefit in snow accumulation terms....it just geographically pin-pointing as per...it's I'm sure not a miss -and redirect feature this!!.. Ppn @no issue.

Edited by tight isobar
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I think the Channel Low isn’t one of those that moves into sufficient cold at the surface so it’s unlikely to be all snow affair unless you have decent elevation . It seems as the system edges east on the more nw flank of that colder 850s head se and undercut the precip.

Edited by nick sussex
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Pub run take on the channel runner...T60, 63, first heights, then T850s:

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Screams marginal to me, that isn't to say there won't be any snow action, just that it really is too close to call at the moment....watch this space!

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The return of the wedge ! 

Another strange looking run , shortwaves all over the place , a slack pattern over the UK .

Could get interesting later .

Damn that stupid shortwave to the north which phases with the upstream trough !

Edited by nick sussex
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Another runner for next Mon also heading further south than the 12z but where have them height's come from to the north,mmm.

18z 156 v's 12z 162

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a lot of interest this week coming up me thinks.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The return of the wedge ! 

Another strange looking run , shortwaves all over the place , a slack pattern over the UK .

Could get interesting later .

Damn that stupid shortwave to the north which phases with the upstream trough !

I think a few more tweaks here and there and we could see something special Nick if the synoptic's play ball

there is some interest to talk about at least.

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The chaos via the 18z gfs just reinforcing the miss dynamics at this point...but lots and lots of likely opportunity....near...and latter term....at last some real model viewing with large scale possibility \possibilities!...no deep cold .but SNOW ❄ well and truly on the menu!

Edited by tight isobar
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The 18z is quiet similar to the 12z control run but with height's to the NE,this will in turn force the jet NW>SE,no warm outlier on this run and should fit in with the gefs ens this time.

Edit:but then as i mention this,it goes t*ts up because the shortwave doesn't break off the parent low in the Atlantic, this is what we want to see to get amplification in the Atlantic NW of the UK,all academic at this range with such discrepancies earlier than that.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

 

I get that...however..we know it's going to bounce up and down...and maybe just for nowcast when it comes down to the wire....but I'd guarantee some will benefit in snow accumulation terms....it just geographically pin-pointing as per...it's I'm sure not a miss -and redirect feature this!!.. Ppn @no issue.

I think Mike is probably right, I’m not entirely sure what weight your guarantee holds but looking at what’s on offer in the models at the moment, it’s not worth much.  
 

I’m calling Thursday a ‘non-event’ - as much as I’d love it to be otherwise.  

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Arpege has the low much further north on its 18z run, out to T60, wasn't showing much in the way of snow until tonight.

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ICON has the chance of snow especially as the low clears SE in the heavier ppn and the colder air digs in, some settling snow shown for the North Downs, so Steve M might be ok up there where he is on the Kent Alps. 

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10 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I think Mike is probably right, I’m not entirely sure what weight your guarantee holds but looking at what’s on offer in the models at the moment, it’s not worth much.  
 

I’m calling Thursday a ‘non-event’ - as much as I’d love it to be otherwise.  

What weight..and what's on offer is my exact prognosis...we are not in situ of established cold overheads of any significant description....so it's indeed marginal \hopeful....but some of the best snow events have\do come from this evoling scenarios...where all points and processes fall into line at exactment...you do not need -8\12hpa in place for a decent\surprised SNOW event...and thermodynamics will be the Lord of the manor @5\10hrshrs out..as well as obvious feature format....id be not surprised AT ALL for an upgrade of all above current synoptics....and I for 1 adore this kind of borderline chase....that could 'again for some' reward well!......please save this post for reference!!!!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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There is little pockets of height's/wedges of high pressure and trough disruptions to keep us entertained in our neck of the woods,whether we will benefit from those we will have to wait and see

and as Nick F says earlier in his post,there is interest Tue evening/Wed morning for a surprise or two even as far as the SW

i am going to chalk this one off for now,bed calling,hang in there peeps you may see something solid falling from the sky near you but i hope it isn't this,

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i saw lumps of ice falling from the sky this morning and it was quiet slippy.

night all.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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