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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Using the same time and model you would have to say that snow indication looks highly dubious

06.thumb.png.3b2cafcc740240a5ddaec0a69fe9690f.png

 

That Is the 2m dew temps and they are just above freezing. It would be fair to assume that 100m+ would be freezing... a lot of areas are at that height 

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That Is the 2m dew temps and they are just above freezing. It would be fair to assume that 100m+ would be freezing... a lot of areas are at that height 

Freezing dew points don't guarantee you snow though, there are loads of other variables that would be marginal at 0c Dewpoints, for guaranteed snow you need them a few degrees below freezing.

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

That Is the 2m dew temps and they are just above freezing. It would be fair to assume that 100m+ would be freezing... a lot of areas are at that height 

Do the models not take into height asl when they produce a 2m temp forecast 

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The GFS op for down here is one of the biggest mild outliers I’ve ever seen from around the 7 th March  , at one point it’s 18c above the mean .

I’m wondering whether we’re seeing the zonal wind discrepancy between the op and the GEFS.

The 00hrs GFS op rocketed zonal winds back up again whilst most of the GEFS brings those down .

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.611bd94a57a21f3fdccc1f1d732d25b0.png

ouch.

What does it mean? Snow or rain? I have to take my 90 year  uncle to hospital that day, He is not at all mobile and I don't want to be stuck outside with him unable to push his wheelchair. Normally I love snow, but preferably any other day.

Kind Regards

Dave

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3 minutes ago, claret047 said:

What does it mean? Snow or rain? I have to take my 90 year  uncle to hospital that day, He is not at all mobile and I don't want to be stuck outside with him unable to push his wheelchair. Normally I love snow, but preferably any other day.

Kind Regards

Dave

Looks very very disturbed, lot of wind and rain i would imagine..it is a day 9 chart so will be unlikely to be correct at that range.

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13 minutes ago, claret047 said:

What does it mean? Snow or rain? I have to take my 90 year  uncle to hospital that day, He is not at all mobile and I don't want to be stuck outside with him unable to push his wheelchair. Normally I love snow, but preferably any other day.

Kind Regards

Dave

Well its 9 days away so chance of it verifying is 0%,best check the day before you go to hospital I would have thought than worrying 9 days away as its impossible to be that accurate so far out. 

Surprised you don't know that if your into the weather or it's a wind~up post. Lol 

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Given GFS’ tendency to go a little too low with the dew points in a polar maritime flow (as evidenced a bit today), high rainfall totals remain the main concern for me - could see 30-50 mm for a large swathe of England Thu-Sat as the numerous small lows swing through. With the ground so saturated - to the point that groundwater flooding is occurring in many areas - this can only be bad news.

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These Channel lows always guarantee a good turnout in here ! 

They’re also a complete pain to forecast and drive nw members crazy !  If we had a low coming up against a block the tendency is often to edge them south.

We don’t have that block so what happens is really up in the air . The timing if this low lands is pretty good coming during the night , and earlier cleared skies should allow temps to dip ahead of the precip.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op for down here is one of the biggest mild outliers I’ve ever seen from around the 7 th March  , at one point it’s 18c above the mean .

I’m wondering whether we’re seeing the zonal wind discrepancy between the op and the GEFS.

The 00hrs GFS op rocketed zonal winds back up again whilst most of the GEFS brings those down .

As it isn't an outlier in terms of SLP, it could be just that it's having problems with the advection (or not) of the very warm air that's been lurking near the Med, for so long? ?

prmslBedfordshire.png

And some runs (like last summer's 23C uppers?) are just so extreme that they have to be outliers?

Edited by General Cluster
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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well its 9 days away so chance of it verifying is 0%,best check the day before you go to hospital I would have thought than worrying 9 days away as its impossible to be that accurate so far out. 

Surprised you don't know that if your into the weather or it's a wind~up post. Lol 

Hello Sleety thanks for your reply. No it wasn't a wind up but a genuine question. I could see the LP fairly south, but wondered if the "ouch" comment by the poster to whom I replied was astonishment at what he perceived to be a brilliant chart for snow or a "ouch" of disappointment or despair. 

I will take your advice and keep an eye on how it all pans out,

Kind regards

Dave

Edited by claret047
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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

As it isn't an outlier in terms of SLP, it could be just that it's having problems with the advection (or not) of the very warm air that's been lurking near the Med, for so long? ?

prmslBedfordshire.png

And some runs are just so extreme that they have to be outliers?

The GEFS seem to have done a big switch around day 11 onwards . Over half have a ridge to the west/nw.  The reason it’s not an outlier in terms of SLP is the GFS op has high pressure but in the wrong place for cold , many of the GEFS have high pressure in the right place both have high pressure close by .

Whether this sudden shift will then suddenly switch back to crud only time will tell . I’m not really into longer range ensembles but I was quite surprised by the change especially as it wasn’t a case of lots of different types of  cold evolutions , so just random noise . The signal seems to be towards one evolution .

 

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Do love a channel (possible) lps....as Nick Sussex mentions...the nails will be down to the quick...next 48hrs.... All eyes on track and trace..!! Some could receive some notable accumulation...should placement fall correct........

Edited by tight isobar
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27 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

As it isn't an outlier in terms of SLP, it could be just that it's having problems with the advection (or not) of the very warm air that's been lurking near the Med, for so long? ?

prmslBedfordshire.png

And some runs (like last summer's 23C uppers?) are just so extreme that they have to be outliers?

You only have to note the below mean line clustering..to almost guarantee...clear outlier solutions...with cold\colder now the lead man!

Screenshot_20200224-200335.png

Edited by tight isobar
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36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

These Channel lows always guarantee a good turnout in here ! 

They’re also a complete pain to forecast and drive nw members crazy !  If we had a low coming up against a block the tendency is often to edge them south.

We don’t have that block so what happens is really up in the air . The timing if this low lands is pretty good coming during the night , and earlier cleared skies should allow temps to dip ahead of the precip.

 

 

Yeah, we're still too far out to nail the track of this low, though a scan of the 50 12z EPS members indicates around half going with a low moving up through the English Channel,  some have the low centre further north over mainland UK, others the low over France (but in a minority), some no low at all - as would be expected. 

Even if the track is good and the precipitation is there ... forecast dew points, thicknesses and surface temps look rather too marginal without elevation for now, certainly for settling snow. But we need the models to settle on the track first before we worry about the specifics, and if they look more encouraging we get excited and then many of us get disappointed by a damp squib anyway. 

Edited by Nick F
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28 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at a selection of GEFS 12z postage stamps I think it’s fair to say there is more wintry weather on the way this week and of course today brought disruptive snow for some of us...about time this winter woke up..better late than never!..good luck my fellow coldies.?

93FCB099-F8BE-40AD-842E-495FAFE9E208.thumb.png.5cc09ea3d06651a592a5c53aa9d6f39e.png82F5C8DD-F12D-48A7-B7D9-BDFE841406B8.thumb.png.f538163ee3bf49c58946efd601b85a66.png3D75A0F2-9565-48D8-BE2C-F865773D34FF.thumb.png.4121e806a7298106dbe5d9772850bb91.png73F08E9A-6D9F-45C0-A3B7-5BAE8864B1A6.thumb.png.a0d1870bb7bea4588cc2da8b87e9430b.png

 

 

again it’s nothing unusual for likes of Scotland to get disruptive snow in winter even the most crapiest on winter Scotland will have one or two disruptive snowfall

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I quiet like the op and mean at(yes i know)day ten

269637309_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.36e2de109e61d2696844635d8ae1725c.gifEDH1-240.thumb.gif.0b62fbab4c52dee6b123d31c97b95399.gifgraphe_ens3_llf9.thumb.png.ce0092f0df01452d87b00f77d5179a6f.png

trough digging into NW Europe and keeping us on the cool to cold side of the jet,i am sure there will be some wintry surprises through the week and into next.

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I quiet like the op and mean at(yes i know)day 

trough digging into NW Europe and keeping us on the cool to cold side of the jet,i am sure there will be some wintry surprises through the week and into next.

And....another good looking set of ens......

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