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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Some interest with the 6z ens showing some height rises in the right places! All in all a week to keep glued to the latest forecasts, much uncertainty over the track of low pressure this weekend! One thing I will say is.... This must be the first time this winter things show a little promise! It won't be desperately cold, but we don't need desperate, just the right side of marginal for the white stuff... One thing for sure is it will be feeling alot colder than we have become accustomed to! Fingers crossed for later this week.. And on parting note, the recent warm up over the Antarctica left apart of the continent literally ice free... Pretty amazing, but not necessarily in a good way. 

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06_120_preciptype.png

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antarctic-ice-22120.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Afternoon all ?

The GFS 06Z OP has picked up plenty of interest - Control goes in a completely different direction which makes me think the medium to longer term evolution is far from resolved. It's almost expected that in the absence of a clear signal GFS FI will default to a zonal Atlantic scenario and so it proves.

Yet both OP and Control have support in the Ensembles so it's heads I win, tails you lose at the moment as to whether a tropospheric led change is likely in the second week of next month. 

The other change is the growing signal for a new warming at the very edge of FI - we've been here before but it's in the OP rather than being led by Control so I give it more credence. It also appears to be originating from the Canadian side which would support a vortex push into Siberia and perhaps some opportunities in mid to late March for us if the dice fall right. I'm also pleased to see Control following along however.

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Icon  again brings the low and precipitation further north  than the 6z    on Thursday   Although  looks marginal  for snow   further north the better  also for Saturday  a snowy picture  with precipitation turning to snow 

image.thumb.png.eb1c03d5f5ec5f691055f52c3712a661.png

Edited by weirpig
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54 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some interest with the 6z ens showing some height rises in the right places! All in all a week to keep glued to the latest forecasts, much uncertainty over the track of low pressure this weekend! One thing I will say is.... This must be the first time this winter things show a little promise! It won't be desperately cold, but we don't need desperate, just the right side of marginal for the white stuff... One thing for sure is it will be feeling alot colder than we have become accustomed to! Fingers crossed for later this week.. And on parting note, the recent warm up over the Antarctica left apart of the continent literally ice free... Pretty amazing, but not necessarily in a good way. 

gfs-0-120.png

gfs-1-126.png

gens-0-1-300.png

gens-7-1-360.png

gens-17-0-324.png

gens-17-1-324.png

06_120_preciptype.png

06_123_preciptype.png

antarctic-ice-22120.gif

I think it was actually snow that went with the ice left behind. Whilst not good, it is summer. It was perhaps the speed of melt that was different 

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1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Sorry for being thick...the green hatch is snow? Or just the blue hatch area? 

Both but green is heavier. Light blue usually doesn't amount to anything at all.

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3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Sorry for being thick...the green hatch is snow? Or just the blue hatch area? 

Yes and the colour is for different intensity.

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2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Get your hats and gloves on lads. 

This could verify considering it's only on Thursday! ?

snow2.thumb.png.8ae034e7f95fefb1c77ce3dee4e39bc0.png

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Let's hope it doesn't change in the last minute!

It seems to tie in with the met office video forcast they think that's the track 

Weather it will be snow that's anyone's guess

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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53 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon  again brings the low and precipitation further north  than the 6z    on Thursday   Although  looks marginal  for snow   further north the better  also for Saturday  a snowy picture  with precipitation turning to snow 

image.thumb.png.eb1c03d5f5ec5f691055f52c3712a661.png

Not a great trend for southern counties.  I’m hoping the GFS is leading here!

Edited by Don
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Don't know how we can be getting to a more blocked pattern unless it is forced from the troposphere somehow as that polar vortex shows no signs of slowing down neither.

The CFS members on weather is cool have the vortex lasting right into May

u10serie.thumb.png.792ff7455b12b60609945810c0d19215.png

At this rate could we see our first ever recorded zonal westerlies at 10hpa in June?

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Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

Gfs 12 z

Saying snow thursday friday and Saturday for most of UK ❄

Falling snow yes...accumulating snow? Only for high ground and Scotland on this run unfortunately. Probably only a degree lower temps required to change that though!

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Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

Please explain what exactly is this showing could you please Steve. 

Thurs shallow low tracking along the channel indicating PPN field would extend up to about the M4. 

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