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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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Back to reality this morning . Not sure this is the end of any wedge type area of heights developing to the n/ne because the opportunity is still there but delayed .

I think it shows though how complicated these scenarios are when you’re trying to advect cold into the UK from a small wedge of high pressure .

As for the Channel Low , still a lot of uncertainty with that feature . 

The ICON 06 hrs run has corrected the low a bit further north .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Back to reality this morning . Not sure this is the end of any wedge type area of heights developing to the n/ne because the opportunity is still there but delayed .

I think it shows though how complicated these scenarios are when you’re trying to advect cold into the UK from a small wedge of high pressure .

As for the Channel Low , still a lot of uncertainty with that feature . 

 

 

Yes agreed playing around with no ample blocking..and relying on transitional wedge placement is fruaght...although trawling through this morning...we are by far at the best place for any notable winter like weather countrywide..for the next 14 days than we have been all season....let's see where we head today!?..   Although worth an eye on possible rises to Scandinavian sector a tad further on also.

gfs-ens_z500a_eu_24.png

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Edited by tight isobar
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Looking at the GEFS 0z mean it’s an unsettled outlook but as we head further into March there are signs that heights from the Azores will encroach towards southern britain meaning more of a north / south split with the jet pushed further north. 
 

9886EF57-F07D-4580-8548-9DCECDBAE35B.thumb.png.b36a0080fc2896e3953bf2ea614fbb4e.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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28 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean it’s an unsettled outlook but as we head further into March there are signs that heights from the Azores will encroach towards southern britain meaning more of a north / south split with the jet pushed further north. 
 

9886EF57-F07D-4580-8548-9DCECDBAE35B.thumb.png.b36a0080fc2896e3953bf2ea614fbb4e.png

Aye Karl; whatever happens, we could do with losing the tight temperature-gradient??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Otherwise, it'll be rain, rain and more rain!

Yep...More rain!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Saturday looking very interesting. Hope this happens ?. But I won’t get my hopes up as it’s the gfs

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These gfs precip charts will be on the money @5/6 days out 1 day...let's hopenows the time!!!.. As for any north \South defined sp!it in temperature gradient...it's far early to say!..especially with divergence in the overall evolution atm..

Edited by tight isobar
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7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Saturday looking very interesting. Hope this happens ?. But I won’t get my hopes up as it’s the gfs

233F350F-3381-43DC-95E7-9F6137833770.png

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Looks like an upgrade on the 00z that?!!saturdays continues to be forecasted as a snowy day across parts of england!!i personally think it wont happen but its nice to look at anyway!!

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The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far .

Compared to their 00hrs runs .

GFS further south 

Arpege further north 

Icon further north 

The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far .

Compared to their 00hrs runs .

GFS further south 

Arpege further north 

Icon further north 

The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

Having a quick look through the GFS Ensembles  there is very much still a lot to be resolved   some bring the low on a southerly track   and some bring it further north slightly more deep   bringing heavy snow to the middle of the country   One to keep an eye on   

Edited by weirpig
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38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far .

Compared to their 00hrs runs .

GFS further south 

Arpege further north 

Icon further north 

The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

Hope it moves further north but i think 12z shall confirm that it goes through the channel/south coast of england!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hope it moves further north but i think 12z shall confirm that it goes through the channel/south coast of england!!

It seems as if we might be seeing a middle ground solution .  The ECM though is quite far south compared to the others .

Same old story with these types of lows, I’ve yet to see one which hasn’t caused a drama .

 

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3 hours ago, shaky said:

Looks like an upgrade on the 00z that?!!saturdays continues to be forecasted as a snowy day across parts of england!!i personally think it wont happen but its nice to look at anyway!!

That puts me ‘almost’ in the sweet spot.  Unlikely but always nice to see! ?

Edited by Don
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In terms of that possible snow on Saturday shown by the GFS.

Thats an undercut of colder air so not the more usual precip meeting cold air scenario.

So as ever complicated! 

Edited by nick sussex
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