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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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Despite considerable promise across a number of model suites, this T240 chart of ECM ensemble mean T850s kind of summed things up!  

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You couldn't make this sort of thing up!  Is the UK cursed or something?  It would explain a lot in recent years....I should note that there are quite a few things in our favour by this point, but I'd feel more comfortable with the ECM ens on board.

Edited by Mike Poole
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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While EC is colder than average i can't help but feel sad these charts were not on offer late Dec or January.

Any snow will likely melt rapidly through daylight hours at this time of year.

Peak time for lying snow this week will be evening to sunrise..

I've always found this to be a meme to be honest. The 2013 and 2018 March snowfalls largely stuck around until milder air pushed in. If you've got a dusting then sure it's going to disappear but what good is a dusting anyway?

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7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The ECM 240.....

 

image.thumb.gif.f5983c19c86fe4f0aa0b49d532ac7bdf.gif

 

 

watch that scenario back west as we close in......anticipated cold Spring coming

 

BFTP

April heatwaves it is then, Fred?:oldlaugh:

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It is difficult to know where we are going at this point.  Obviously, it has been a relentless series of Atlantic weather systems and storms, but is this coming to an end, and if so what will replace it?  

CFS showing above average angular momentum which might help, 

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Otherwise it is difficult to see where an amplified pattern might come from, and we're getting no help from the strat at all, here it is T384 from this mornings 0z run

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If anything wintry does transpire in the next week or two it will be entirely trop driven, so we watch the models, is the trop vortex finally starting to wane?  We will see.. 

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1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

All to play for This Thursday could blanket southern England in it’s first snow of the winter.
Key player positioning of low pressure track,should get a better idea in next few days.

country file weather just saying the uncertainty at the moment.

looked like uncertainty with rain unfortunately!

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ICON 18z only goes to T120 bless it, but looks an improvement on the 12z run, here T120, compared to 12z at same time:

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Upstream forcing looks stronger to me....

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The ECM 240.....

 

image.thumb.gif.f5983c19c86fe4f0aa0b49d532ac7bdf.gif

 

 

watch that scenario back west as we close in......anticipated cold Spring coming

 

BFTP

Coming up quite repeatedly on various runs. Could be some late winter model watching fun coming up!

gfs-0-240.png?12

ECM ensembles from this morning, cluster 3 is the best development of this scenario, sending the trough into Europe, hmmmm...

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020022300_300.

So a chance of something a bit less predictable in around 10 days time, but  until then, the main focus will remain on short spells of snow further north and deepening lows as they reach the UK - looks like the south of the UK in particular might experience some localised storms. 

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GFS 18z showing still some interesting things to come next week.

However, will the south start to see snow next week? Let’s hope the models start to show this in a few days time. 

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No one messes with our super wedge !

If the upstream troughing was just a bit weaker that would disrupt sending energy se and keep the continental flow into the UK for longer . It’s the slider shortwave ejecting off that trough that would really up the ante.

Regardless a very interesting run from the GFS upto day ten .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

BBQ weather already !!!!

Lol

 i see what i have put there BA

too many steaks recently lol

Love to put a stake in that pv though.

P.S,i have edited the post above,i am pretty good at English

anyway the 18z looks good to me with a growing sign of a Scandi high building perhaps!

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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On 20/02/2020 at 18:39, tight isobar said:

Big highlights here in reference...take the ecm12z @144 with 850hpas in toe... The shortwave Scandinavian feature pens and disrupts clean evolution....yet by the 26 Feb it may not exist in sequence at all.. And allow dripping of value....also highlights my mjo scwerming!!!..looking forward to all suites 500 geopotential outs tonight!      Edit. Will add charts shortly having a few issues....

ECH0-144.gif

ECM1-144.gif

An-increasing format of gain...with a more continental element...so this evolution just gaining......winter finally looks on.....as we head spring wards!!!!

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On 20/02/2020 at 19:00, tight isobar said:

?. The it's not as borderline as all winter with ramifications on the turn it's dripping just correct..and I personally can see a transition to a more North\north east elements...as we gain. Certainly a backloaded out. Just to what degree is for decipher.

 

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

An-increasing format of gain...with a more continental element...so this evolution just gaining......winter finally looks on.....as we head spring wards!!!!

This was where we were always going to end up if the seasonal models were right (they were, this time), shame they are pants if they are predicting cold.....so are we going to get our consolation mini-winter in March?  Little Ice Age?  

Well don't bank on the GFS, but here it is at T192:

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Maybe increased amplification would help, wouldn't it always!    Hey ho! 

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https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/23/europe-on-the-long-term-23rd-feb-2/
My final forecast for the long term in Europe this season. The final days of the month and first 10 days in March look a little more hopeful for snowfall prospects according to models and the tropical drivers. But this will subside in mid-March.

At the end of the day, the season was not that great, and the drivers failed to get us into a conducive state.
 

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Not looking as good this morning, the lows looks further north and the wedge is gone for next Monday's snow ?

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