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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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The danger with all these runs is that it looks like the sort of pattern that could deliver a lot of rain ( or transient snow) to some areas that really don’t need it!

 

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i mentioned UKMO Nick..

850s reflect your post.

Yes you were right , it’s meh ! We need those deeper low  heights around Iceland to lift out as soon as possible . The UKMO only barely starts that at day 6 with that miniscule area of darker blue over Iceland which you need the Hubble telescope to find ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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28 minutes ago, Griff said:

gfsnh-0-306 (1).png

Interesting FI once more, does it go anywhere? 

gfsnh-0-324.png

 

gfsnh-0-372.png

Anyone of any knowledge able to comment on the pattern which keeps popping up in late FI

Whish full thinking or sniffing something? 

Edited by Griff
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With low pressure systems forming to the south of the U.K. and cold air on the northern flank snow 

much more likely over good parts of England.March coming in with Winter in mind.

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Well, I'd take the first 10-days of that 12Z, alright: opportunities for wintriness while wintriness is still wanted; the last 5-days, however (meandering, stagnating blobs of cold, damp nothingness) can go do one. It's shame it's too early in the year for inland convection?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

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17 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

gfsnh-0-372.png

Anyone of any knowledge able to comment on the pattern which keeps popping up in late FI

Whish full thinking or sniffing something? 

It’s fairly standard for early spring for the PV to start loosing it’s grip. If it’s deep and crisp and even you are after it will take something very special when approaching mid March! 

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I'd take the first 10-days of that 12Z, alright: opportunities for wintriness while wintriness is still wanted; the last 5-days, however (meandering, stagnating blobs of cold, damp nothingness) can go do one. It's shame it's too early in the year for inland convection?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

Give it a month and inland convection will be just around the corner!!

But first, we gotta wait. I need some snow immediately! Especially because the chances of getting snow will start to slip away in about 2 weeks time.

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is their possible another  big storm heading our way at 192 hr

gfs-2-192.png

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7 minutes ago, tinybill said:

is their possible another  big storm heading our way at 192 hr

gfs-2-192.png

Maybe - or it could just be periods of heavy rain. It's too far out though to be certain!

storm.png

storm0.png

storm1.png

storm2.png

storm3.png

storm4.png

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s a lot to like about the ECM op in terms of overall pattern . This is now the second run to move the main PV further towards the Pacific side .

If we can stop the main PV from feeding energy into low pressure to the west nw of the UK that will mean we have a better chance of developing more interest . 

The Euro limpet high is displaced which is a plus , I think I speak for the vast majority in here in saying good riddance to it !

 

Very good gfs and ecm tonight!!to think anywhere in the uk could see snow from tonight till day 10 is bonkers considering the winter we just endured!

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s a lot to like about the ECM op in terms of overall pattern . This is now the second run to move the main PV further towards the Pacific side .

If we can stop the main PV from feeding energy into low pressure to the west nw of the UK that will mean we have a better chance of developing more interest . 

The Euro limpet high is displaced which is a plus , I think I speak for the vast majority in here in saying good riddance to it !

 

I also like the developing heights over Scandinavia at T=216 and T+240 which keep the trough negatively aligned.

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Countryfile forecast highlighting the uncertainty for Thursday with some models showing a system tracking across England generally M4 route. Mix of Snow and Rain if that was to come off. Cotswolds, Chilterns etc.

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Just now, stodge said:

I also like the developing heights over Scandinavia at T=216 and T+240 which keep the trough negatively aligned.

Yes that’s another plus . I look forward to seeing the ECM ensembles later , hopefully some there develop the pattern further west .

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While EC is colder than average i can't help but feel sad these charts were not on offer late Dec or January.

Any snow will likely melt rapidly through daylight hours at this time of year.

Peak time for lying snow this week will be evening to sunrise..

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The 12Z ECMWF seems to end with a Low Pressure area swinging over into the North Sea, East of the UK. The combination of the amplified Azores/Canadian High out West together with High Pressure over Scandinavia means the trough of Low Pressure becomes angled from a North-West to South-East direction through the UK keeping the pattern quite chilly. (I guess as Nick and Stodge mention, encourages to keep the troughing on a negative slant). 

04B12BF6-01E1-4689-B07D-D277CFA0E1BE.thumb.png.1cb23380e07a1b359e3cf039de51d94b.png2D5DA7ED-7A67-49C5-9087-61C4952D22F9.thumb.png.08d20ac49e6dcc0e2f9f11b21c617daf.png
 

A Scandinavian and/or Russian High can help assist with Lows out West in the Atlantic sliding and disrupting against the blocking to the North-East of the UK. Particularly with a Jet Stream that tracks quite far South. 

And it appears to be the case that the models have shown some Low Pressure systems to track quite far South into this new week and probably into the week after, along with the Jet Stream, to make it tough work for a European High to stamp its foot firmly down to our South-East. 

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All to play for This Thursday could blanket southern England in it’s first snow of the winter.
Key player positioning of low pressure track,should get a better idea in next few days.

country file weather just saying the uncertainty at the moment.

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Brrrr... -13c in Scotland? ?

cold.thumb.png.4184c5377676757f7dccce4bc6d6b732.png

This obviously might not verify - but, DANG!

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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While EC is colder than average i can't help but feel sad these charts were not on offer late Dec or January.

Just the way it goes sometimes.  Better late than never IMO.  I’m with CreweCold on this and would be happy to see falling snow!

Edited by Don
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Tuesday looking quite good for snow to even low levels for Ireland. Plenty troughs and with thickness sub 528 and uppers nudging -8 we're in with a decent shout of lying snow come Wed morning. It hasn't been a good Winter but you couldn't class February as mild either just a rampant PV I guess....

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If this verifies ?

sno.thumb.png.0e1c230bf87281eb061899f1d4df962e.png

sno0.thumb.png.2a6e942d7f188b450154b4845552977b.png

snow1.thumb.png.20c005c70a8bb2268ac5a62a8e1d98f5.png

sno2.thumb.png.75852d14f1334cd6395b98879242ea60.png

Edited by Zak M
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The ECM 240.....

 

image.thumb.gif.f5983c19c86fe4f0aa0b49d532ac7bdf.gif

 

 

watch that scenario back west as we close in......anticipated cold Spring coming

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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