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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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The danger with all these runs is that it looks like the sort of pattern that could deliver a lot of rain ( or transient snow) to some areas that really don’t need it!

 

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i mentioned UKMO Nick..

850s reflect your post.

Yes you were right , it’s meh ! We need those deeper low  heights around Iceland to lift out as soon as possible . The UKMO only barely starts that at day 6 with that miniscule area of darker blue over Iceland which you need the Hubble telescope to find ! 

Edited by nick sussex

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28 minutes ago, Griff said:

gfsnh-0-306 (1).png

Interesting FI once more, does it go anywhere? 

gfsnh-0-324.png

 

gfsnh-0-372.png

Anyone of any knowledge able to comment on the pattern which keeps popping up in late FI

Whish full thinking or sniffing something? 

Edited by Griff

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With low pressure systems forming to the south of the U.K. and cold air on the northern flank snow 

much more likely over good parts of England.March coming in with Winter in mind.

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Well, I'd take the first 10-days of that 12Z, alright: opportunities for wintriness while wintriness is still wanted; the last 5-days, however (meandering, stagnating blobs of cold, damp nothingness) can go do one. It's shame it's too early in the year for inland convection?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

 

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17 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

gfsnh-0-372.png

Anyone of any knowledge able to comment on the pattern which keeps popping up in late FI

Whish full thinking or sniffing something? 

It’s fairly standard for early spring for the PV to start loosing it’s grip. If it’s deep and crisp and even you are after it will take something very special when approaching mid March! 

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