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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I wonder if there is a chance the trop vortex might be about to blow itself to bits with this onslaught, ECM T240: 

I was wondering that too Mike, with the PV ramped to the max when it does finally fall apart could there be unusual repercussions down the line?  Perhaps a case of the 'harder they come.....'.  

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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM Day 9 > 10 continues to show promise with some mediocre heights in situ to the North & some atlantic ridging. 
At the very least perhaps some snow for Ireland & the west day 10.

It shows even more promise for people in Western Scotland who are a fan of Category 5 hurricane strength winds!

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Tomorrow in the morning, there will be plenty of showers across the UK, followed by a very cold, strong wind. Some of these showers across Scotland or Northern Ireland could turn wintry over the hills. Elsewhere, in England, there will also be showers, although with some bright morning sunshine inbetween these showers. Feeling also very cold in these areas too, with temperatures ranging 2-5c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 3-7c in England. 

Into the afternoon, the showers, that could turn wintry over hills, will spread southwards with the cold wind. Most of the showers/snow showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland will fade away, leaving a dry and sunny afternoon for most areas of Scotland and Northern Ireland. It's the same story for parts of Northern and Southern England too, as the showers will fade away, leaving some sunshine and patchy cloud. Temperatures in the afternoon should range from 5-10c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 6-11c in Northern and Southern England. However, the bitterly cold wind will make the temperatures feel like a few degrees lower than they actually are.

Into the evening, some showers will continue over Scotland, with a chance of them being wintry over the hills. Northern Ireland and Northern/Southern England will have a fine and dry evening, with some late sunshine to enjoy in some areas. Although, once again with the bitterly cold wind, it will feel freezing out there. There also is a chance that some places will see frost overnight and into Wednesday. Temperatures in the evening in Scotland and Northern Ireland should range from 2-6c, and the temperatures in Northern/Southern England should range from 3-7c.

Sea level pressure:

1128206298_UntitledProject(Time0_00_0205).thumb.png.443245dc5b97fa888123336f3e363c9b.png235801605_UntitledProject(Time0_00_0429).thumb.png.fa6d73c6f319d7c48f1d9db099611961.png872527929_UntitledProject(Time0_00_0729).thumb.png.4681a88d91833646271a0e6c1ff7c59e.png

Jet stream:

852184061_UntitledProject(Time0_00_0811).thumb.png.31f0c1a2f2b45afa11a52072ce900332.png149574551_UntitledProject(Time0_00_1724).thumb.png.ac6b1344bf8cf9d06806d0fa5037eb9d.png1361687508_UntitledProject(Time0_00_2011).thumb.png.582f523bc450e2b8be1baf4cba39961a.png

Max temperature:

270562018_UntitledProject(Time0_00_2109).thumb.png.f684af42dbf0aedff2b3073bada1152b.png958247081_UntitledProject(Time0_00_2412).thumb.png.f62192ddae5c166d9d82b94ac7438825.png2009225974_UntitledProject(Time0_00_2703).thumb.png.96e7e60a0f1082e5871fb371068fb553.png

Precipitation:

225435427_UntitledProject(Time0_00_2729).thumb.png.7ec2413177dd965304c5746e890bad1a.png672705395_UntitledProject(Time0_00_3103).thumb.png.95a40cada6ae19cd2dd715760e563275.png1030543945_UntitledProject(Time0_00_3400).thumb.png.71cea7db84a68383ff9fe22e7e460117.png

HGT500 and and sea level pressure:

1795718840_UntitledProject(Time0_00_3421).thumb.png.135c08d4743712824bae6e9d10eae6bf.png1037160817_UntitledProject(Time0_00_3512).thumb.png.47c37ba196332c32f4ef78e75e64a3a7.png1298199480_UntitledProject(Time0_00_3527).thumb.png.56234047e64b4c042331c0332f8f61e8.png

Edited by Zak M
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The GFS storm given its depth and track would effect a huge amount of people and is really a horror show.

Although as a wind phobic that’s really a personal point . I know some people love to see these storms .

 

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22 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Living on the West Coast of Scotland...might not be a good idea to take my two year old son a wee walk with his kite during these few days...?
 

ECM:

9B23574A-BAB5-4B17-B63B-E1F3257D4C51.thumb.png.b8234abf3643ada8da560491435e5348.pngA3BDDC73-D0EA-491D-A559-5E54CADCBC1B.thumb.png.46aaf140643aa26d416ab577d16ecf3c.png3B589B77-8C19-48AC-91EB-38481BF286A8.thumb.png.cbbf21af41531a016e80bbe29d4e8549.png76E44320-A4FF-45A8-A21A-1ABE0851A8D0.thumb.png.a069607f99c23167754d11b47a227d74.png
 

Wild stuff with rain/hail/sleet/snow! (Blizzards over high ground)

Looking forward to it! (If it indeed becomes reality)

Have a good night everyone!

Also,Spring tides set to join the party.87A4B54F-E8FA-4BF8-B5B0-EE2D0F854520.thumb.jpeg.a9a04c286982794ca8d8b1d8afbf5b4e.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS storm given its depth and track would effect a huge amount of people and is really a horror show.

Although as a wind phobic that’s really a personal point . I know some people love to see these storms .

 

Ancraophobia is what you have then.

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Ext EPS - Goodnight Charlie! ?

Strong Euro heights with low heights to the south of Greenland!  Very, very ugly!

Edited by mulzy
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1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

I was wondering that too Mike, with the PV ramped to the max when it does finally fall apart could there be unusual repercussions down the line?  Perhaps a case of the 'harder they come.....'.  

 

37 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Indeed the bigger the balloon the louder the bang when it pops. also just to add i have Snaw falling right now.. didnt see that coming in any of the model output so just goes to show that the models do not see everything and surprises do happen.

Yes, that is what I've been musing last day or two.  There seems to be an implicit assumption that if there is to be a sting in the tail of this abysmal winter, it would have to come via events in the strat...well there is no sign of that in the immediate or even medium future.  

But there have been a couple of interesting signs that the trop vortex might destabilise after next week's shenanigans, two examples from GFS FI which I posted yesterday:

image.thumb.jpg.b2d9652a4148d4ceb331c2044b503dde.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c0a5542e44a1476799bc3af95cbd68a9.jpg

ECM T240 headed that way? Way, way to soon to tell, but it is something to watch.  But much interest, first, in next weeks storminess...

Edited by Mike Poole
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14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS - Goodnight Charlie! ?

Strong Euro heights with low heights to the south of Greenland!  Very, very ugly!

Any signs on many members of that stonking big Alaskan ridge ridging right into the pole and pushing the Jet on a Southerly track and splitting the PV like on some GEFS members over the last 24 hours?

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7 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Dennis. Any idea what the composites look like for late Feb/Early Mar for high amplitude 7-8-1 (If it were to occur?)

im afraid that 7/8/1 will be very difficult to reach...

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Some serious attempt here to get really cold air (given the source) in to the UK, angle of attack looks sharper, and it might be a bit windy, pub run T162:

image.thumb.jpg.db8e9545cb8f8727e085e07ef282f0e5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bcea73bec17651de5cdbd72ca9004402.jpg

Yes all looks ever so slightly further south to me

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Well T180 we've got -6 uppers over the whole country, and goodness knows what level of precipitation, still marginal for many without altitude, doubtless some or even many surprises with that though, this is as direct hit as you could get with this setup I think. 

image.thumb.jpg.3240a1bc7c2730928904c5e68198c96c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.34ac3313f81044927046de9ecf4b869d.jpg

And there's an interesting feature to come a thousand miles west or so...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Well the storm for the 21 February is still there.  Not sure what the central pressure is showing, but that would be serious if it came off as modelled here

image.thumb.png.d3711a4c0f3ff311239f102ffa978837.png

Edit - 955 by the looks of it ?

image.thumb.png.b87c5dd859d2dcdee35be8c9f2c170b9.png

Edited by Ice Day
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