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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Atlantic train running out of puff at 144 on UKMO. Interesting chart if you are hoping for last gasp of Winter early March. (Or should I say first gasp?)

UN144-21.GIF

GFS dragging the cold uppers in from the NE with just a weak ridge able to hold back the Westerlies 

gfs-1-168.pnggfsnh-0-180.png

Edited by Mucka
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Fair bit of snow there in the east and in Scotland by D8.

 

186-574UK.gif

192-780UK.gif

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2 hours ago, Mucka said:

Atlantic train running out of puff at 144 on UKMO. Interesting chart if you are hoping for last gasp of Winter early March. (Or should I say first gasp?)

UN144-21.GIF

GFS dragging the cold uppers in from the NE with just a weak ridge able to hold back the Westerlies 

gfs-1-168.pnggfsnh-0-180.png

First gasp.... Let's make No bones about that 

Edited by Snowfish2
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ECM 0Z is fantastic with a high pressure building up over northern scandinavia, just 1,5 months too late so probably not below 0 degrees for whole days 

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At last been watching these charts for the past 5 days,awaiting for the Atlantic to finally give up and give us some peace. 

Ensembles paint a picture unfolding.

The 850 hpa charts are impressive for us,  but how we get there is a different story.. the pressure charts, still messy and lacking agreement. A note of caution, the air temp GFS mean is running on the cold sideof the charts. 

 

Winter isn't done yet... Another March 2006 me thinks

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good sign of a colder phase now - see where the chart showing near 0 m/s - thats stratosphere-  and now it has the effect into the living-levels 

 

image.thumb.png.68af9c4d451900021ae2fc4df4a4503d.png

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A pretty messy medium term outlook with shortwaves flying all over the  place and these small wedges of heights .

The ECM manages to displace the main PV further north , looking at the mean although not as bullish that’s an improvement on last night suggesting an increase in colder solutions .

I think however we should be wary of any changes shown post day 7 to the PV , it’s still packing a punch and we have seen a bias at the longer range to show some favourable changes which then implode .

 

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Some leading edge snow for the the majority in the Northern half of the UK in the early hours of tomorrow morning, with snow showers blowing in from the West Tue/We'd.

1689155417_viewimage-2020-02-23T080932_075.thumb.png.e7f90519bc49ee3a2c20ba4bc2bddf9f.png601922904_viewimage-2020-02-23T081052_131.thumb.png.1941256857fd1f2a6ea29ab33027c9c7.png2022929611_viewimage-2020-02-23T081132_392.thumb.png.2a994da97c18d22650059a61eb8ebaec.png

 

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Ah....potential in the ecm day 9 and 10 charts....in fairness these are probably the best couple of charts of the winter as the wedge of high pressure exiting the states at day 5 turns into a tasty Scandi high by day 9 with some very cold air being drawn south and west..

 

ECMOPEU00_216_1-3.png

ECMOPEU00_240_1-10.png

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Nice bit of snow for Dartmoor & Exmoor ?

image.thumb.png.0dedada5399578d9d2ad627f312a219f.png

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Some definitive looking ens....finally some winter weather looks nailed....the drop line says yes!! @ooz

Screenshot_20200223-083754.png

Edited by tight isobar
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A cold start to Smarch, anyone? Even some sleet & snow thrown in, for good measure??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And is that? I think it is! It's a nearly ice-day (Bedfordshire) to start Smarch::shok:

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

But will it still be there, when the 06Z comes out?:oldlaugh:

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Firming up on a cold March,good chance of some white stuff something we in the south have seen nothing of

all winter.

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I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
 

The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
 

 

Edited by Beanz
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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

the drop line says yes!! @ooz

What does that mean?? 

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19 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
 

The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
 

 

I wouldn't be so sure of that Beanz. I have seen some settling snow on relatively modest hills already this winter down here in Dorset. Totally understand your scepticism though after such a dire winter over all.

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38 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
 

The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
 

 

Going on the last few GFS runs alone, I think there might be wintry showers even at lower levels, but not expecting anything to settle at lower levels, from south of the Midlands, but further possibilities in around a week's time and onwards, but plenty of time for change (for better or for worse). 

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33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Curvature of isolines looking good to sink south again > 120

A1141A96-9509-4DB9-B2B2-F7703813690B.thumb.jpeg.2ffd2d0fd3f40197ea690bfea13706af.jpeg

7 days most likely FI but for fun.. 

winteroverview_20200223_06_150.jpg

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1 hour ago, Beanz said:

What does that mean?? 

I wouldn't take too much notice...rough theme looks very disturbed and muddled with somewhat of a jet stream taking a southerly course (in layman's terms).

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50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thurs Snow event beginning to correct slightly south....

6E5C60E9-9FA9-456A-A5E8-8AD8ACD91992.thumb.png.c55b0266d41304b2889aedfe0f939266.png

That's the one I'm looking out for. This winter has been a story of corrections North and flattening the jet as things get into reliable times, but I think the weakening of the jet has begun so corrections are more likely to be southwards with incoming lows now. Thursday has great potential.

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