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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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ECM not particularly inspiring this eve > lots of mobility which negates any chances of that deep cold airmass impacting the UK 

 

Lets hope it sways towards the GFS over the next day or so-

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM not particularly inspiring this eve > lots of mobility which negates any chances of that deep cold airmass impacting the UK 

 

Lets hope it sways towards the GFS over the next day or so-

Considering the PV's behaviour and the winter in general, I wouldn't bank on it.  However, yes, lets hope it does follow the GFS very soon!

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Quite a messy looking ECM op but nonetheless interesting .

For most of the run the UK is on the cold side of the jet , we don’t get the earlier wedge to the ne but the energy mostly heads se .

By day ten it tries to develop a wedge to the ne ahead of that deepening low . 

I’d personally prefer to see the earlier wedge of heights.  I like bits of both the GFS and ECM op runs upto day ten .

In terms of the day ten ECM op that’s a bit of a tease , with a bit more sharpness to the west we could see some trough disruption at day 11 and that could help develop a stronger wedge to the ne.

Overall I think we’re in a bit of a holding pattern . With some luck it could look a bit more wintry in the coming days , equally it could flatten out and the angry looking PV could turn things less so .

 

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5 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Agreed the winter has been a complete write off but March especially early on can still deliver something wintry.

Of course unless we get something outlandish like 2018 then we have to lower expectations as to what can be achieved as we are battling the increase in solar energy.

I understand people are fed up and rightly so . Let’s see what transpires over the next few runs . 

 

It may be a write off regarding low-level snow(especially south of Manchester)however it’s another entry into the record books.

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Signal definitely there for a below average March.

image.thumb.png.7f9df8a8d3ec2487aca1d2ea474ed74d.png

Runs all over the place after T+240hrs.

As to be expected. 

A late snowy period shouldn't be ruled out.

March could well be cold .

I'm out camping in my 4x4 camper next weekend hoping for a bit of snow at 500m ASL.

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Quiet, in here this evening, latest GFS not dissimilar to the previous run, plenty of everything, some wintry transient fun, good for the north and west, no doubt lamppost watching elsewhere. 

Edited by Griff
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The wedge of heights was better orientated on this run facing head on to the advancing low but not enough trough disruption to win the battle .

But this is well past the reliable timeframe anyway so could change and we still don’t know whether this wedge will verify .

This wedge now looks like it’s got a lot riding on it and for areas that haven’t seen any snow this type of set up looks really the only way to deliver given there’s very little chance of any proper northern blocking .

 

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1 minute ago, Griff said:

JFF, looks to carry on, probably different next run! 

winteroverview_20200222_18_258.jpg

gfsnh-1-258.png

Nice to see the continuity, lets hope its not all disappeared in the morning runs. Must say I'm quietly confident that we will see some interest for us coldies and snow freaks in the next week or two, not a bad time of the year either, but getting close to the wire now with the longer days and stronger sun.?

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1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

That first chart, Ice Pellets is this some new lingo ?

?

Code for frozen rabbit droppings? 

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What you really want to see in this set up is a weaker shortwave which separates cleanly from the main troughing .

As you can see on the GFS 18 hrs run this doesn’t happen and so effectively the shortwave acts as a tug boat pulling those deeper low heights with it into the UK.

Regardless these last few runs have the UK in the game.

Realistically the PV is likely to win out eventually but we want it to need at least a few goes so that the first shortwave can at least deliver some snow to favoured areas.

And the milder air is held at bay and then the PV needs to have another go , not just pass the ball into an empty net ! 

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Worth keeping in mind that eventhough most of us haven't seen lying snow it's hardly been mild the last few weeks. Indeed a continuation of the status quo ( us remaining North of the jet) is the form horse with transient snow cropping up quite a bit South at times! We've about another 3 weeks of Winter potential, let's embrace it before we herald Spring sunshine!

Edited by January Snowstorm
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3 minutes ago, Griff said:

I really should go to bed now... 

gfsnh-0-342.png

Why can't we get charts like this in early Feb these days......not early March!:olddoh:

 

gfs-1-360.png

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That's it guys keep the excitement rolling, know need for me to post the upper air temps or pressure charts, as you guys already have. But my god those juicy snow charts keep appearing on the GFS!! 

18_189_preciptype.png

18_210_preciptype.png

18_213_preciptype.png

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5 hours ago, Don said:

 

18z Ensembles are out, London and Manchester, nothing mild about these.?

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

We still have time on our side for a jackpot though, I mean if we keep seeing upgrades like todays who knows, some place might get a dumping, maybe even a nationwide event or two coming up. A couple of weeks of cold and some snowy weather is good enough for me to get my fix, having said this even a couple of days with snow would be better than nothing. 

?

We do but with the PV continuing to rule the roost, a significant cold spell remains elusive.  However, there is enough potential for snowfalls in the near future and after the winter we've had to endure, a couple of days of snow would fill me with delight!

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Hey all, there's a possibility of some snowfall on Thursday morning. Early Thursday morning, a band of rain could bump into cold air that is across the British Isles. The snow that is produced could be heavy. Unfortunately, once again, the places that will see the snow are northern places, like Northern Ireland, northern England, and Scotland. Will the south ever get to see snow this winter?? :wallbash:

But once again, the chance is still there. If you live in the north, then don't be surprised when you wake up and see all of this on Thursday morning:

snow.thumb.png.a48b5ea1caf6351afa34a2448d7f9aba.png

Okay, maybe that's over exaggeration. But still, that would be cool, right? :oldgood:

Also, the event is 5 days away, so things are likely to change. Whether it will verify is the question.

The GFS 18z run shows some of the snow in the band of rain:

snow0.thumb.png.b7b383ffb731ecb22662dd2bb951d387.pngsnow1.thumb.png.0c4b7f75af31bbc5454de03777fd59d5.png

snow2.thumb.png.eb9ace35c0da1326e409ba67164a965e.pngsnow3.thumb.png.3a67ef313fcaff67338a763db65aa6c8.pngsnow4.thumb.png.483e91ff18bc4d57beda16c0d086c4ff.png

snow5.thumb.png.2320006ef45b46d87b2e1525261787d8.pngsnow6.thumb.png.6229a0b310adaac68923858c5a0bf455.pngsnow8.thumb.png.3d5fb5ddf52f472fdacad3410526e5c4.png

 

And the GEM shows some snow too!

snow9.thumb.png.c2e2dc24cbcb55a5cf4821f021a57532.pngsnow10.thumb.png.5d1c4ab3930ef0581a8fe94d0c89051e.pngsnow11.thumb.png.86ce5404f58097d98133b9c11b746f23.png

Also, I apologise if my term 'plume of cold air' caused confusion. I thought that was a term at first although I later found out it wasn't after some other members pointed it out. 

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