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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Much colder next week in general according to the charts,some snow possible north and south in the mix.

Will March bring spring or Winter could go either way,my guess don’t put your overcoats away.

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13 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Much colder next week in general according to the charts,some snow possible north and south in the mix.

Will March bring spring or Winter could go either way,my guess don’t put your overcoats away.

Yep holding back on a forecast for friends and relatives here in the Midlands. Snow certainly possible as the week progresses but will it amount to anything is an impossible call to make yet.

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GFS 00z has the PV running at record strength almost every day from now until the 8th March - with 100% ensemble agreement on a strong vortex right out to day 16:

image.thumb.png.6ba5df2ddea0426902aa1586f911598b.pngimage.thumb.png.7bbbcae06180dc52bf902052982d2020.png

We're stuck in this rotten pattern for quite a while longer it seems. Absolutely sick to death of it now.....will the PV just vamoose please.

More wind, rain and flooding incoming. Pressure ensembles looking very cyclonic:

image.thumb.png.ca1cee0aec616acd2b05430aa41998d9.png

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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 00z has the PV running at record strength almost every day from now until the 8th March - with 100% ensemble agreement on a strong vortex right out to day 16:

image.thumb.png.6ba5df2ddea0426902aa1586f911598b.pngimage.thumb.png.7bbbcae06180dc52bf902052982d2020.png

We're stuck in this rotten pattern for quite a while longer it seems. Absolutely sick to death of it now.....will the PV just vamoose please.

More wind, rain and flooding incoming. Pressure ensembles looking very cyclonic:

image.thumb.png.ca1cee0aec616acd2b05430aa41998d9.png

I know I’m not at an airport but I do feel I need to announce my departure?? see you all next year??

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Apart from 16-days' alternating cold-mild zonality, I really don't know what to make of today's GFS 00Z...? But, there is one teeny weeny quantum of solace, at T+384:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And that only leaves the most important question: will it be cold enough for snow?

prmslBedfordshire.png    t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Maybe yes, maybe no!:help:

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Another deep, cold Atlantic depression forecast for the 29th February according to the GFS:

                             500s                                                         850s

image.thumb.png.2a26f326a80b0513a51478a829fae032.png  image.thumb.png.eb91cfa3723897fbf546d9e00d8eda33.png

This could bring freezing temperatures, a lot of rain, possibly snow for some and more high winds as shown in the GFS 0.25 HR charts:

image.thumb.gif.64ccbd941d6d515013ffbd0dc320111b.gif   image.thumb.gif.da02f293e4d4eb4fe160b1bcf392ccb6.gif

image.thumb.gif.56b2f4c0350b9db1e5d2aa150fbc265a.gif   image.thumb.gif.5b322f6b54827b22c14d1fcccba47461.gif

This could all change before the end of the month, of course, but the GFS was predicting deep depressions at least six days ahead of both storm Ciara and Dennis so I am inclined to take notice when these sort of charts appear.   These conditions might not materialise or they could be diluted - or amplified - by the end of next week.  Either way it will be interesting to see if the GFS has modelled this correctly.

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Looking at the GEFS 0z postage stamps, snow could be coming to a backyard near you next week and even beyond!?☃️

186D12D5-FBAA-44AB-8EE2-EDA15239660B.thumb.png.15d93a66efa027c622bba38c65d286d3.pngF33FCCA5-D623-425B-BC98-26685D47760E.thumb.png.cba568ecdb59aef038ba97a2c948ae20.png1930A9CB-FAFE-4363-82EF-E81258C26D4B.thumb.png.c1573d473fd97d8db74dea6f8193deb7.pngD04FC679-3266-49A6-9BD2-5A78F871E5A2.thumb.png.590842c2c8a36ba802bb9c60113f17b0.pngA2914E12-CEF7-48D9-BA9C-788B9097CF98.thumb.png.53bcd987e62db5eedc33468f8187b4b8.png

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Very disturbed 00z runs.

Wind/rain/hill snow up north next week.

 

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A lot of rain likely, next Monday. And all in the places where it's needed least:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Yes Pete, UKV take for Monday.. Maybe some leading edge snow over high ground, But the main headline will be the wind and rain as you say in all the places it's needed least.

1184355009_viewimage-2020-02-21T100251_802.thumb.png.95116398aa1ef0eb412ae1201b62db02.png1595111106_viewimage-2020-02-21T100046_261.thumb.png.0a80967442ef315e469cf763e312d90b.png2102997019_viewimage-2020-02-21T100004_974.thumb.png.951df4457bce499788b17fd6698ae586.png

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Rain the concern again going into next week  Sunday  Monday on the GFS 6z  Then something more wintry midweek   It really is relentless    Certainly a far cry from last Feb 

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Once again any amplification shown bites the dust . The pattern now becoming flatter with every run .

Even crumbs aren’t being thrown out now to close winter with at least something resembling that season .

Clearly the models are underestimating the PV at the medium range and so we see some temporary amplified solutions before reality hits .

The GFS 06 hrs now onto another likely wild goose chase in its FI .

 

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Certainly the chance of some marginal snow events over the next couple of weeks. Probably only the north and high ground that will see anything significant but you never know....

1EC36172-182A-4BEF-8859-F805AF0E9AEC.png

494DFB65-561E-4825-9D62-AE0AA3588709.png

9549BC1E-B04A-47B7-B831-B010950D7DBB.png

EE5A0D60-9509-4F80-857F-F8D207096E8C.png

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Just now, nick sussex said:

Once again any amplification shown bites the dust . The pattern now becoming flatter with every run .

Even crumbs aren’t being thrown out now to close winter with at least something resembling that season .

Clearly the models are underestimating the PV at the medium range and so we see some temporary amplified solutions before reality hits .

The GFS 06 hrs now onto another likely wild goose chase in its FI .

 

We do not learn, a major issue with the new GFS is over amplification in FI and I am ignoring now till it gets below T168. We are stuck in Groundhog Day, a repeating pattern dominated by the tPV. There has been nothing to suggest it will change, the MJO is playing a bit part this winter and lets just hope this is not a new cycle for winters to come!

For most of us, snow is just noise, the rain is the issue and we are facing another 10-days giving us greater than monthly totals in certain areas:

240-777UK.thumb.gif.59b4d8607f0cf79b6e34468f1379d7fa.gif

As we would expect on a constant westerly flow, the west taking the full force^^^. The snow charts have little beyond the normal hill and mountain risk and we know that as it gets closer that gets downgraded.

We understand the sPV has reached another peak so we need to see where it goes after but with the coupling I am not expecting the sPV to relent before mid-March and for most of us that is winter over.

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

We do not learn, a major issue with the new GFS is over amplification in FI and I am ignoring now till it gets below T168. We are stuck in Groundhog Day, a repeating pattern dominated by the tPV. There has been nothing to suggest it will change, the MJO is playing a bit part this winter and lets just hope this is not a new cycle for winters to come!

For most of us, snow is just noise, the rain is the issue and we are facing another 10-days giving us greater than monthly totals in certain areas:

240-777UK.thumb.gif.59b4d8607f0cf79b6e34468f1379d7fa.gif

As we would expect on a constant westerly flow, the west taking the full force^^^. The snow charts have little beyond the normal hill and mountain risk and we know that as it gets closer that gets downgraded.

We understand the sPV has reached another peak so we need to see where it goes after but with the coupling I am not expecting the sPV to relent before mid-March and for most of us that is winter over.

Even the ECM has been doing this so both are next to useless past day 7 .

There are some winters where you can have more faith in more medium term amplified solutions as they’re underpinned by background signals . I’d say at this stage I wouldn’t even trust     anything unless it has cross model support within day 6.

The eastern USA storm which was supposed to exit slowly from there is now rushing through as the pattern flattens.

As for the GFS snow forecasts I’d rather read the tea leaves! 

 

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

A lot of rain likely, next Monday. And all in the places where it's needed least:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Days 12 and 13 look even wetter! ?

rain.png

rain0.png

rain1.png

rain2.png

rain3.png

rain4.png

rain5.png

rain6.png

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16 minutes ago, IDO said:

We do not learn, a major issue with the new GFS is over amplification in FI and I am ignoring now till it gets below T168. We are stuck in Groundhog Day, a repeating pattern dominated by the tPV. There has been nothing to suggest it will change, the MJO is playing a bit part this winter and lets just hope this is not a new cycle for winters to come!

For most of us, snow is just noise, the rain is the issue and we are facing another 10-days giving us greater than monthly totals in certain areas:

240-777UK.thumb.gif.59b4d8607f0cf79b6e34468f1379d7fa.gif

As we would expect on a constant westerly flow, the west taking the full force^^^. The snow charts have little beyond the normal hill and mountain risk and we know that as it gets closer that gets downgraded.

We understand the sPV has reached another peak so we need to see where it goes after but with the coupling I am not expecting the sPV to relent before mid-March and for most of us that is winter over.

But we do learn, IDO: FI is called FI for a very good reason. And why hang-on to every MJO 'prediction' anyway? IMO, the MJO is merely one, out of myriad, potential indicators, of what the future might hold...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

There's a lot of warm air on that chart...for the time of year?:oldgood:

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7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But we do learn, IDO: FI is called FI for a very good reason. And why hang-on to every MJO 'prediction' anyway? IMO, the MJO is merely one, out of myriad, potential indicators, of what the future might hold...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

There's a lot of warm air on that chart...for the time of year?:oldgood:

...when you are stuck in a cyclic pattern, endless westerly's, then there are only a few chances for disruption. The tPV Final Warming (sometime away one would guess) or tropical forcing to maybe disturbing that westerly motion? An MJO signal that impacts would lead to extreme cold to mid-lats so searching for that to become a driver is hopecasting, I agree, but what else do we have, apart from coming back in November!

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We maybe stuck in endless Wstlys but at times with a NW element there will be wintry opportunities! The North could see some decent snow amounts at times... Kudos for them, also potentially deep low pressure anchored to the N/NW next weekend could bring some fun and games in places! It's along way off, but worth highlighting! Infact the entire GFS 6z run remains on a relatively cool note. So it's a far cry from last year's mini heatwave!! Considering we still have a monstrous pv located to the NW, it's decent enough we will still be in alwith a shout of some of the white stuff... And I still feel March will deliver as that vortex finally diminishes.. 

gfs-0-192.png

06_111_preciptype.png

06_114_preciptype.png

06_189_preciptype.png

graphe3_1000_275_90___.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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I would say that the models are showing the chance of some polar maritime air in the Atlantic flow next week from Tuesday onwards, giving some areas especially further north and with elevation the chance of seeing some snowfall, but to me it looks very similar to the pattern in the second week of this month, and the milder bump around the 28th is showing some concern now of ruining the chance of seeing a few days of a colder polar maritime pattern.

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2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Pete, UKV take for Monday.. Maybe some leading edge snow over high ground, But the main headline will be the wind and rain as you say in all the places it's needed least.

1184355009_viewimage-2020-02-21T100251_802.thumb.png.95116398aa1ef0eb412ae1201b62db02.png1595111106_viewimage-2020-02-21T100046_261.thumb.png.0a80967442ef315e469cf763e312d90b.png2102997019_viewimage-2020-02-21T100004_974.thumb.png.951df4457bce499788b17fd6698ae586.png

It's not needed Anywhere to be fair. Now, if that was snow ? I'd bite your hand off For a flake.... 

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