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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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UKMO and GFS at 144

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A brutal period of weather coming up, that lump of PV is looking rather angry and has its sights on the UK and Ireland.  Those at elevation, particularly in Scotland could be getting buried in the white stuff, but also losing their roofs!  

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO and GFS at 144

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A brutal period of weather coming up, that lump of PV is looking rather angry and has its sights on the UK and Ireland.  Those at elevation, particularly in Scotland could be getting buried in the white stuff, but also losing their roofs!  

Just said the exact same thing to the wife. my birthday treat this year will be a big pile of snaw and a new roof.. looks like a very bumpy ride coming up for sure.

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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO and GFS at 144

image.thumb.png.b0dcefa5a6e718d2cefd69806e08a737.pngimage.thumb.png.9f22ee3d38746ac82cbac2d062ccd535.png  

A brutal period of weather coming up, that lump of PV is looking rather angry and has its sights on the UK and Ireland.  Those at elevation, particularly in Scotland could be getting buried in the white stuff, but also losing their roofs!  

Thats some cold air coming in from Canada/greenland!!!gona be some really heavy snow showers coming in from the northwest!!!

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Thunder / Hail / Snow / Rain / Kitchen Sink

Quite literally!!finally some adventurous weather to talk about!!!been such a lame winter so far!!one of the worst if not the worse winter ever in my lifetime!! Not had a single flake of snow!!could change next week!!3 or 4 cold days and nights coming up this week as a starter!!

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Ignoring the secondary deep low as its way too far out to take that seriously(especially any GFS predictions) but all models have been modelling a large low to take control of the Atlantic with flat Stright line isobars. The question is how quick any colder upper air temperatures arrive and depth of cold will all depend on the angle of the jet. UKMO has a better angled jet at 144 hours than the GFS. Really do hope this large low sets up in the right way to bring the Gale to severe gale force winds and bring the polar maritime air in with it. Could be some impressive convection also across western Scotland and Northern Ireland also with this set up but still subject to change. 

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17 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yikes, looks a monster at 198..... wind off the scale.  Southern Ireland and Wales in the Bullseye

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Wow.

If I'm not mistaken that is like the equivalent of an EF1-EF3 tornado hanging around for several hours!

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25 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Yikes, looks a monster at 198..... wind off the scale.  Southern Ireland and Wales in the Bullseye

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Does that low pull in any colder air behind it for a couple of days?

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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Hi Dennis. Any idea what the composites look like for late Feb/Early Mar for high amplitude 7-8-1 (If it were to occur?)

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I'm skeptical that we will get much of an orbit into 8-1 given what we have seen with the last phase and i'm dubious that the current setup will allow something that looks like phase 6 however phase 7 requires only a shift in the position of the tropospheric vortex so i would look for a build of pressure to our east a -NAO as we approach the turn of the month.

At the very least a high amplitude MJO wave should create wave breaking to thump the stratospheric vortex again (albeit at this stage a bit late).

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just for fun folks, but how often this winter have we seen a snow chart showing literally countrywide snow!! Answer we ain't... Yes perhaps it's a little OTT, but it's ruddy great to see all the same... I may frame it. Would be superb for us all to see a little of the white stuff now... We have been punished for long enough. ?

 

 

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The showers will be moving through so fast that it will be difficult for most people to get a lying snowfall (or at least one that might survive the night). Those on the western slopes of the Pennines like Oldham might have the best chance of actually piling anything up. 

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23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The showers will be moving through so fast that it will be difficult for most people to get a lying snowfall 

There might be that many of them and be that heavy though, marginality the biggest problem in my opinion, there will be plenty of Precipitation.

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4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The showers will be moving through so fast that it will be difficult for most people to get a lying snowfall (or at least one that might survive the night). Those on the western slopes of the Pennines like Oldham might have the best chance of actually piling anything up. 

I'm not getting excited until the mo come on board. How many times does the fgs go mental with extremes only for it to get watered down.

 

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2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Yikes, looks a monster at 198..... wind off the scale.  Southern Ireland and Wales in the Bullseye

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country  file  said next week could  be a little bit interesting  to say the least!!!

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