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phil nw.

Model output discussion 02/02/20

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Gfs has snow opportunities for Midlands north

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Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)

 

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19 minutes ago, tcc said:

Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)

 

Well I certainly don't claim to be one who might know but the advent of the north east Pacific ridge is doing just that over much of North america at the moment

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-2070400.thumb.png.038359d189b2377bd93608f0a1ccf750.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-2070400.thumb.png.bd4d516c3c1bd57ab97042023b9dd1b9.png

Edited by knocker
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GFS still suggesting some less 'explosive' conditions developing, as HP asserts itself over Europe. Once again though, we can only hope:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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I think I'd rather watch Dulux matt emulsion dry rather than following the ECM this winter...it really has become that tedious. Last night the 24z was practically the same as the 240z.:lazy:

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4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think I'd rather watch Dulux matt emulsion dry rather than following the ECM this winter...it really has become that tedious. Last night the 24z was practically the same as the 240z.:lazy:

Sadly, you mean accurate!

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1 hour ago, tcc said:

Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)

 

I'd rather it stayed bottled up over the arctic to help sea ice.

 

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That's why the polar vortex is so strong, because all the bottled up cold air is still in the Arctic, and still no signs of a great change. Too much rain by far now for everyone. 

Edited by SLEETY
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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

GFS still suggesting some less 'explosive' conditions developing, as HP asserts itself over Europe. Once again though, we can only hope:?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Latest run has the high pressure diving a little bit south now.

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ECM extended clusters

Day 10 - very unsettled:

image.thumb.png.d49d8a6ba7e6c21f31e1a964518d459c.png

Day 12 - potentially even more unsettled, wet and windy:

image.thumb.png.894d7de388dafa6b6dfe941232f5a8fc.png

Day 15 - probability favouring unsettled weather to continue. Chance of high pressure building, though not favoured solution at the moment:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020021900_360.

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You're right enough, Zak: the pattern on 3rd March looks virtually the same as the past umpteen Tuesdays --- not a positive development?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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There is no way around it - this winter will end unsettled with the same sort of pattern that has been around for most of the season

A complete lack of snow for most of the country though I was lucky to be in a tiny strip of snowfall last Monday in Nottingham so cant complain too much 

A lot more rain to come although less intense across England than during the first 20 days of this month 

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Still some signs of a colder shot around months end, or early March from the 6z ensembles, but no real signs of anything meaningful, or long lasting! If we could just eek out 1 or 2 snow events from this non starter of a winter, that would satisfy a few of us till we all pull our hair out again for the next big chase come November! ?

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Morning all ?

Echoing much of what has already been said, the "sine wave" pattern of ridges and troughs will see out this month and take us into spring.

The signal for HP to build in across southern Britain also seems to be fading as the dominant PV keeps on developing vigorous LP areas across the North Atlantic and keeping the Azores HP (for all its many attempts at ridging NE) as a bit part player with the ridges rapidly collapsing SE until the next cell attempts to build.

The 00Z CFS Daily breaks us out of this pattern in mid march with the PV being displaced to Siberia and pressure building first into Scandinavia and then into Greenland for 7-10 days of an easterly dominated pattern before a brief Atlantic return and then as April beckons the PV looks much weaker.

Well, maybe but I'd like to see more of a hint of warming in the 10 HPA and I'm just not seeing that at present. Yes, as spring comes, the PV will weaken but unless there's a dramatic final warming just round the corner I just can't see why the displacement should happen.

In any case this isn't even in FI but beyond that so it's not to be relied on but  this pattern will inevitably end and perhaps we are seeing just some hints at what may follow (or we may not). 

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Not sure how much people trust this model, but the GEM is showing something more unsettled and perhaps a little colder at the end of February:

gem.thumb.png.f2a4245d1112c1398966f6e6877f8112.png

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5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not sure how much people trust this model, but the GEM is showing something more unsettled and perhaps a little colder at the end of February:

gem.thumb.png.f2a4245d1112c1398966f6e6877f8112.png

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gem2.thumb.png.68662650c44ca5ee733f44b2bc75b42d.png

I dont have much faith in any model this winter Zak... But good lord when GFS 6z knocks out low resolution snow charts like the ones I'm posting, I just love em ? Scotland and the North in general look to be in the firing line for some action at some point next week... The 6z ens do show a cluster of colder Conditions around months end to.. Let's just see shall we! 

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8 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not sure how much people trust this model, but the GEM is showing something more unsettled and perhaps a little colder at the end of February:

gem.thumb.png.f2a4245d1112c1398966f6e6877f8112.png

gem0.thumb.png.8dbbec491326870defb61201c55845dd.png

gem1.thumb.png.3a9cd1e087d2cd4563cc26dc8391c43a.png

gem2.thumb.png.68662650c44ca5ee733f44b2bc75b42d.png

The GEM model is one to watch these days. Years ago it used to be bin fodder, but this winter it has consistently verified as more accurate than the GFS. Definitely take note.

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Scotland and the North in general look to be in the firing line for some action at some point next week

They're always in the firing point for anything that happens! ??

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25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The GEM model is one to watch these days. Years ago it used to be bin fodder, but this winter it has consistently verified as more accurate than the GFS. Definitely take note.

Indeed. To be honest I don’t get why people have a “preference” or “opinion” about a model. It’s fact that GEM outperforms the GFS this winter, that’s a fact.  So if you want a reliable model then GEM should be preferable over GFS. Problem is that it only goes to 240hrs so we view the GFS to get some crumbs of comfort from FI (well at least this winter we have)

back on topic and next week looks ok for some sleet on low ground north of Birmingham and perhaps some transient snow on high ground. GEM is best case scenario. Still no sign of anything resembling a proper cold or snowy spell and in 2 weeks it’s spring when the sun starts getting stronger,  so it will take more extreme conditions to deliver lying snow. Can’t see it happening to be honest. 

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13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Indeed. To be honest I don’t get why people have a “preference” or “opinion” about a model. It’s fact that GEM outperforms the GFS this winter, that’s a fact.  So if you want a reliable model then GEM should be preferable over GFS. Problem is that it only goes to 240hrs so we view the GFS to get some crumbs of comfort from FI (well at least this winter we have)

back on topic and next week looks ok for some sleet on low ground north of Birmingham and perhaps some transient snow on high ground. GEM is best case scenario. Still no sign of anything resembling a proper cold or snowy spell and in 2 weeks it’s spring when the sun starts getting stronger,  so it will take more extreme conditions to deliver lying snow. Can’t see it happening to be honest. 

And in 2 weeks time.... The sun gets stronger, meaning the cold gets more hunger, leading to the the snow lying on the ground longer! That's my take anyway.. ? Hints of something more wintry next week, especially at elevation... Looks like standing on the roof again.. ?

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4 hours ago, tcc said:

Quick question for those who might know, as the cold air is still bottled up for a considerable amount of time, will that mean that once we have the final warming then all that very cold air will head to the mid latitudes? So we might get a blast of winter (albeit probably late March/April!)

 

No doubt in my mind it was and I'm looking at wintry outbreaks on both the 5th and the 12th April (perhaps not so far south with the latter) . will update on my thoughts when the main models start getting within range.

 

PS...I'm having a laugh....I don't actually have a clue!

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Good afternoon all!

Had a look at the sea level pressure to 'sea' what's going on, and to check for potential storms in the making.

Over Iceland however, in the next 24 hours, they are going to be hit by strong winds and snow. They have an amber warning for snow and a yellow warning for wind.

low.thumb.png.d1f5bb29c77693611087a7a6b95f2477.pnglow0.thumb.png.18a189b389d3e43514349016eac1706e.pnglow1.thumb.png.e49981fe85657404bfe6e9b504ca0d11.pnglow2.thumb.png.7db935eac15dfecea8730ff6ebe0824c.png

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Back to the UK, a little low pressure system passes almost directly over the Shetland Islands on days 5 and 6. I don't think it will be a named storm, but it could also bring some strong winds and snow to the north.

low3.thumb.png.033d6733a4eb824343a040eb5214de70.pnglow4.thumb.png.5a86dde998d283c0a731c5c24630998c.pnglow5.thumb.png.25fbc6274d7dc08aeab5bcbe99c1e706.pnglow6.thumb.png.658f1dfd0d9ae8ffbbd7fa1f8efd18a0.png

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Anndddd, this huge area of low pressure certainly caught my eye on days 14, 15 and 16. Whether it verifies or not will be the big question. If this does verify, then it will most likely be a named storm, but for now, it's just the case of whether it will verify.

Look at the number of isobars!

low7.thumb.png.ec6ed5a3fc1fb45b2b3c64ec628b1a01.pnglow8.thumb.png.a9a21bf7749585d738488f31a453dcd4.pnglow9.thumb.png.062b475af2332ecf32ae12ac32b9fa00.pnglow10.thumb.png.15c5f7a80cf11ed60c1d2d343477ec31.png

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Anyways, enjoy the rest of your afternoon!

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ICON 12z out the blocks & its very similar to yesterdays 12z GEM with amplification remaining longer than initially thought-

00B97AEF-9582-4D84-8F95-9BF25B56DB55.thumb.png.159e67c74544773f5267c7dad3a85209.png

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Opportunities for a few days of snowfall from the 25th on Icon.. Especially for western side of the BI.

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Anybody else finding issues on meteocial with the gfs 12z run???

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