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Model output discussion 02/02/20


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GFS has been indicating a cold Northwesterly shot around 26th Feb for some days now.

I'm not holding my breath because it doesn't really result in snow for much of the UK and doesn't currently have great support from other models.

Nevertheless with a bit of an upgrade it could deliver something Wintry

 

spacer.pngGFS 6z @ 192

 

spacer.pngProjected Uppers at 192

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A pretty lively weekend to come for the UK. Storm Dennis will impact the UK at the weekend, although it won't be as powerful as Storm Ciara. It is being powered once again by a very powerful jet strea

Im 'personally ' logging of now until October \November...and I honestly pray\hope that when I return...things will be a little better at least for our overall situation.!!! I wish you all happiness..

Sorry. But i think its time to stop all this now. None of us know what weather the virus prefers. Its new. I come on here to escape the 'expert opinion " on Covid 19, please  can we just continue with

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14 hours ago, Snowfish2 said:

But sadly southern Britain has been starved to Death of snow 

So has South western Scotland, two winters so far and not a single day of laying snow between them. It's becoming very common to have a winter and no snow now. 

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1 hour ago, rossco89 said:

So has South western Scotland, two winters so far and not a single day of laying snow between them. It's becoming very common to have a winter and no snow now. 

Not true I'm in South Western Scotland  granted the southern uplands.had snow a few times this season just last week 10cm for a few days.way better than last season.but still it's way disappointing than decades ago.

Edited by igloo
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Got some time off this week and next and eager for some (imaginary) excitement... 

I might throw in the words 'looking a bit more amplified' to justify my post, obvs it will change again on the next run... 

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So a different evolution from the previous run, but nevertheless ends up in a similar place with tantalisingly close easterlies before very mild FI... I might as well read some tea leafs, probably more likely to support my anaemic hunt for last gasp winter... 

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Edited by Griff
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Another very unsettled run from the ECM this evening. 
 
Worrying times ahead for the flood hit areas with more rain to add to the water levels, along with gales or severe gales. 

0587A9C9-6F8B-4F6F-A815-BFF979AE32D5.thumb.jpeg.bdb55ef39d923e2820c4e88dc3b089c8.jpeg
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The very intense Polar Vortex is breaking records atm. 
F5D2A5DF-347D-4A7F-91A9-CDE91223F0CE.thumb.jpeg.6ef5c48dbdafd5a45e76a5d650f9845d.jpeg

The jet stream remains in overdrive! 
BA55D64D-C526-4B03-9253-5D7DB91146AF.thumb.jpeg.d7e1318ec90bfcc4474bef4c217aa794.jpeg


 

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The whole picture is just desperately poor still. Barring a rubbish brief NW incursion it’s just business as usual. More flooding to come in areas that don’t need it. Let’s just look for some spring warmth, at least we might find some...

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16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The whole picture is just desperately poor still. Barring a rubbish brief NW incursion it’s just business as usual. More flooding to come in areas that don’t need it. Let’s just look for some spring warmth, at least we might find some...

It's on its way!! ?

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The GEM is the best in terms of cold potential.. again, slightly more amplified at day 10 then the other two.

At day 10 we can clearly see it's more amplified around north Atlantic and southern Greenland area. 

image.thumb.png.cb2b2878a11d93c44a1a48ed6cf37adc.pngimage.thumb.png.a36d4a1f693e4966d5009916cc3dfcf9.pngimage.thumb.png.f5380e051e9e16e281bb1564894f1871.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

London hasnt seen the -8c isotherm since the last day of Feb 2018.

18z just scrapes under 2 years.

16D2837D-E5B6-4778-BB85-24851CCF2350.thumb.png.af47d5ba3786d41f61999f6142f9d9ae.png

Something to build on ? ??‍♂️

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Spectacular mild in another deep FI near miss, all roads lead to Rome, well in this case they take you really near by and then straight to Vesuvius. A bit like Ryan Air, you think you're going somewhere but the destination seems deceptively close, but not close enough! ? 

gfsnh-0-330.png

gfsnh-1-330.png

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Morning all!

Had a bit of a surprise yesterday when I saw my first ever thunderstorm of 2020. It was one over Leicester! Was quite a show to behold!

The GFS and other models are going for a nice, settled, and possibly warm start to March, as they have been for the past 5+ runs. It's good news for the warm lovers, but bad news for the cold lovers!

gfs.thumb.png.cd65a69e5d3f7fea84521c3dd6be85c6.pnggfs0.thumb.png.ab849efa8fafbe0d8b6a18fb15a970fc.pnggfs1.thumb.png.7561c73f89a43af5ae46a07caa91df1c.png

I think the people who love cold weather and snow will get what they deserve this winter. I think there won't be any major snow outbreaks, but I think there will be at least one event where some snow has actually settled onto the ground.

Unfortunately for the cold lovers, no major snow events look likely yet, especially if you live in the south.

gfs2.thumb.png.56897c003a7855a7538968885ebde009.pnggfs3.thumb.png.6ae5577920fdd9c7af4fd96f10b0e0c5.pnggfs4.thumb.png.380478acfa18f6573865ee4740548259.pnggfs5.thumb.png.704ffc5706248eeb46108f09174ce023.png

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

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2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Morning all!

Had a bit of a surprise yesterday when I saw my first ever thunderstorm of 2020. It was one over Leicester! Was quite a show to behold!

The GFS and other models are going for a nice, settled, and possibly warm start to March, as they have been for the past 5+ runs. It's good news for the warm lovers, but bad news for the cold lovers!

gfs.thumb.png.cd65a69e5d3f7fea84521c3dd6be85c6.pnggfs0.thumb.png.ab849efa8fafbe0d8b6a18fb15a970fc.pnggfs1.thumb.png.7561c73f89a43af5ae46a07caa91df1c.png

I think the people who love cold weather and snow will get what they deserve this winter. I think there won't be any major snow outbreaks, but I think there will be at least one event where some snow has actually settled onto the ground.

Unfortunately for the cold lovers, no major snow events look likely yet, especially if you live in the south.

gfs2.thumb.png.56897c003a7855a7538968885ebde009.pnggfs3.thumb.png.6ae5577920fdd9c7af4fd96f10b0e0c5.pnggfs4.thumb.png.380478acfa18f6573865ee4740548259.pnggfs5.thumb.png.704ffc5706248eeb46108f09174ce023.png

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

A very positive post. Thanks but you had to add the bit especially those living in The south (which is a fair old number of Us). It never ceases to amaze me that for an island the size we are, how annoyingly variable it is with its weather..... Scotland gets plastered whereby we miss altogether blah blah blah.... Gfs shows more promise at the end of its run but its FI once again and unlikely to verify. 

Edited by Snowfish2
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The Atlantic onslaught continues. It's now virtually certain that I shall witness my first ever snowless winter. Not even a flake from the sky.

The briefest flirtation from ECM is soon snuffed out.

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With the jet this powerful there's nothing that's going to stand in the westerly way. A remarkable February but, for most of us, for all the wrong reasons.

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7 hours ago, Zak M said:

.

 

No need to panic though, as we've only just scraped the halfway mark through February. Most snow events here happen at late February/March!

Enjoy your rest of the morning everyone!

 

Hmmm, most snow events happen in late Feb/March aided by a weakened PV, that’s not looking likely anytime soon. It’s highly probable this year’s breakdown will be a late one given the strength of that beastly PV

northwesterly colder than normal airflow seems our only straws to clutch on this winter. Don’t worry though, next winter ?? ❄️

 

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Looks like staying pretty unsettled for a while longer yet, with temps above average on the whole:


image.thumb.png.e0f6ae4ba0647545dec30c0eab02d07b.png

Western & Northern areas - and in particular Scotland - could face some more disastrous flooding in the next week/10 days, with 4-6 inches more rain forecast:

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Remarkable strong vortex holding out very close to or above record strength at times right out into the first week of March:

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Forget it folks. We're done for here. RIP 'winter' 2019/2020.

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